Ruby Walsh: Embracing change is safe bet for the Grand National

Runners and riders in the Randox Supports Race Against Dementia Topham Handicap Chase on day two of the 2024 Randox Grand National Festival at Aintree Racecourse, Liverpool. Photo credit: David Davies for The Jockey Club/PA Wire.

EVERY sport evolves. It is that simple.

The game Christy Ring played has changed to the one Cian Lynch does; Donal Lenihan played a different game to Tadhg Beirne and even Roy Keane and Kevin De Bruyne play other versions of the same game.

Safety — or the protection of those playing — is what changed all these sports the most, and when one thinks that heading a soccer ball could eventually become a thing of the past, it is no wonder the Grand National has had to change, too.

Many will argue horse racing has changed its most traditional race too much in an attempt to please those who will never be pleased, but I disagree.

Changes to tackle height in rugby have been for the better, and having all hurlers wearing helmets is hardly regressive, so I don’t see how Aintree trying to reduce the risk for horse and rider is any different.

Risk can never be eliminated, but it can be reduced, and I believe Aintree is trying to achieve that. 

However, the changes need time, and I hope they will be allowed four or five years to see if they have worked.

The most significant change to the National is the field size, which is down to 34 runners, so here is a brief guide to help you pick the 2024 Grand National winner.

Ruby’s guide

1. Noble Yeats: A winner two years ago and fourth last year, he has been running over hurdles and slightly underperformed at Cheltenham. He will be staying on, but maybe not quickly enough to win. Place chance.

2. Nassalam: The Welsh National winner loves these conditions. He was outpaced early in the Gold Cup and pulled up before the race got going, so it shouldn’t have left a mark on him. The only worry is his weight for his achievements, and others look better treated.

3. Coko Beach: He went too fast last year and pulled up after three out but has been in great form this term. Jumps and stays and another with a place chance.

4. Capodanno: Came here with only one run last season and paid for it fitness-wise in the last mile. Much better prep this season and will outrun his odds.

5. I Am Maximus: Last year’s Irish Grand National winner has looked even better this year, albeit in small fields. The choice of Paul Townend, he has the class to be running in Gold Cups but needs to jump faster than he has in the past.

6. Minella Indo: The 2021 Gold Cup hero is not the horse he was then, but he will have his followers with Rachael Blackmore on board. I worry that when this gets tough, will he have the fight his jockey does?

7. Corach Rambler: He bolted in last year event and could be ready to do a Tiger Roll by winning back-to-back runnings.

Lucinda Russell and Derek Fox are bidding for a third victory in the great race, and his Gold Cup third to Galopin Des Champs stands out. But — and there is a but — he looked to empty late at Cheltenham, and if the bottom of the well was reached in March, it will still be dry in April.

8. Janidil: I can’t see him staying.

9. Stattler: The ground will be too soft.

10. Mahler Mission: Stats say Grand National winners must run at least three times in the season. He has only run twice but has the ability if there are enough miles in the tank.

11. Delta Work: Third to Noble Yeats in 2022 and unseated at the 21st last year. He loves the ground, stays all day, and is close enough to 11st to suggest he is a player.

12. Foxy Jacks: It would be the best party in my opinion if he won and his trainer knows how to do it. A massive outsider with a slight each-way chance. It’s a big day for Gavin Brouder.

13. Galvin: He has all the credentials, but the ground is a massive drawback.

14. Farouk d’Alene: No chase form worth a sausage in 25 months, would be a National surprise.

15. Eldorado Allen: Coral Gold Cup fourth has earned him his spot but others preferred.

16. Ain’t That A Shame: He didn’t stay last year, so I can’t see why he will this time.

17. Vanillier: He flew home to be second last year but has a mountain to climb to turn his Bobbyjo form with I Am Maximus. However, he is on the right side of 11st, and has place chances again.

18. Mr Incredible: Mr Unpredictable, but with only one start this season, this task looks enormous.

19. Run Wild Fred: Has more letters than numbers in his recent form. Not for me.

20. Latenightpass: Jumps for fun, gallops all day, and it would be a fantastic winning story. Has a top-class British amateur on board in Gina Andrews, and has a solid each-way choice.

21. Minella Crooner: Twenty-five lengths behind I Am Maximus at Fairyhouse in February and pulled up at Cheltenham. It’s hard to see it on recent runs.

22. Adamantly Chosen: He sprang a surprise on St Patrick’s Day at Down Royal to earn his spot but needs to back it up.

23. Mac Tottie: He loves the course but usually at shorter trips, so stamina is a concern.

24. Chemical Energy: It falls into the ‘not enough runs’ bracket for me.

25. Limerick Lace: One of two mares bidding to be the first to win since 1951, she catches the eye as the choice of Mark Walsh. A Cheltenham Festival winner with a cracking second in the Troytown and she is still improving. A big player.

26. Meetingofthewaters: An improving novice with only six chase starts. The fact Mark Walsh deserts him rings an alarm bell, but he can only ride one, and Danny Mullins has landed a plum spare ride.

27. The Goffer: Honest type but has stamina concerns.

28. Roi Mage: Excellent seventh last year, and this veteran jumps and stays for fun. In good form this season and could get even closer this time around.

29. Glengouly: Thyestes second reads very well but poor effort at Cheltenham last time. Needs a career best.

30. Galia Des Liteaux: Carried 11st 12lbs in the Classic Chase at Warwick and plugged away gamely to be second. Will find 10st 6lbs a feather-weight today and should be on any each-way list.

31. Panda Boy: Placed in two Paddy Powers and fourth in the Irish Grand National last year, he has the stamina, experience and weight to be bang there at the business end and give Martin Brassil a second National.

32. Eklat De Rire: One has to go too far back in his life to find the form that gives him a chance.

33. Chambard: He won the Becher Chase here in December, and the current conditions could help him stay in touch, but it’s unlikely he can have that big a say.

34. Kitty’s Light: He would be a fairytale winner for the Williams family and ticks many right boxes statistically, but the wet spring has been unkind to his chance.