Ruby Walsh: Seeing value in the ones that chase home the hotpots
FLYING FORM: Sharjah, with Paul Townend at Fairyhouse Winter Festival last December. Ruby Walsh fancies Sharjah to most likely come from off the pace rather than going off with all guns blazing. Pic: Seb Daly/Sportsfile
There is no point in dressing this up:Â the rear end fell out of Cheltenham Tuesday last week when Constitution Hill officially went south.Â
It doesn't matter what sport you choose to talk about or how you debate it: every sport can be narrowed down to three or four stars and the rest. Racing has three or four, but he was the one who looked a bit different, and regardless of what price he might have been, Constitution Hill was the box office draw for Day One of the Festival. He is a massive loss to the whole meeting, let alone the opening day, and poor Stateman will get only half the credit he deserves if he wins Tuesday at a meeting where short ones will be plentiful and hard to oppose.
Odds-on shots don't float many people's boats, but 1/3 onto 4/7 works out at just over even money. Add that to a 2/1 shot, and you're at 5.28/1. It's not too bad, but no one has confined you to just looking at Tuesday, so if you add a 4/5 shot on Wednesday, it becomes 10.31/1.
Now, if a ten-to-one winner can't see you through the week, you are betting too much, drinking too much or else you didn't have enough on to cover everything. But if you really want a chase injection for Paddy's weekend and are prepared to wait, then an even money shot on Friday brings that to 21.62/1.
Multiples are not most people's choice of bet, and plenty will argue they are benevolent for bookmakers; maybe they are, and all the favourites don't win every day. They don't, but I can see more than five winning this week and hope I have the right five. Stateman, Louissemouth and Corbett's Cross on Tuesday. Ballyburn on Wednesday and Gallopin Des Champs on Friday.
As for value picks here and there, first things first - forget about Friday until Thursday evening, when the results of the first three days will point to what form is strong and what is weak. By then, you will also know what yards are in form, which jockeys are on the crest of a wave and, even more to the point, what outfits you need to avoid.
Drying ground will have the most significant influence on the form we have on offer. So much of the racing since November has been on soft ground of some form so a wet Monday will keep that relevant but what if it gets to good-to-soft or yielding as we call it? Who does that help, or who does it hinder?Â
The drier it gets, the more it will suit the Henderson horses, but the yard form is doubtful, so it will be interesting to see how Jeriko Du Reponet gets on in the Supreme. If he runs into the first four, you would have to take it as all is good, but if he blows up, the doubts will linger.
Short-price horses take up a huge chunk of any market, so there has to be value to fill the places or chase them home, and you can always find markets without the favourites, too.
The Champion Hurdle is a classic case for betting without punters. Who chases State Man home? I am guilty of overthinking these types of bets, and rather than looking for the second-best horse, I always look for one who will be ridden to achieve its best possible finishing position rather than one who will try to win and fade late on. Sharjah would be my choice as he will most likely come from off the pace rather than going off with all guns blazing.
The Supreme is another contest where you can find value at EW prices, and Mistergif is a classic type to outrun his odds. Winner of a lowly Tuesday Maiden hurdle, he is entirely unexposed and won't be the choice of Paul Townend, which will lengthen his odds for no reason at all. He jumped super at Limerick and could nick a place at double-figure odds.Â
The Arkle has no standout horse, and jockeys read form like the rest of us. Six, if not seven of these riders, will fancy their chances of nicking this, but again, I need an angle when I can't pick one, so looking for someone who thinks they might grab a place here appeals to me. If four or five of these go at each other off the hill, this could fall into the lap of a closer, and Master Chewy appeals to minimal each-way stakes. A stayer always wins the Ultimate, so don't get sucked into a horse with no form over three miles. Experience plays a huge role in the Boodles, so a run-over jump in France is a big plus.
Best of luck to you if you are brave enough to face the Coral Cup, but don't let Saint Roi off in the Grand Annual without at least thinking of having something on him, and if you prefer your choices to race close to the pace, then Frero Barbou could give you a thrill at a decent price.
Don't over-read jockey bookings. They have to pick what they are riding 48 hours before the event, and while most wouldn't have a choice either way, those riding for big yards might realise that on Tuesday evening that they have selected the wrong one for Wednesday. Much to my delight, Paul Townend hasn't figured out to do the one thing I never could which is riding two horses in one race, so he will face choices this week and will know he won't get them all right. The third and fourth strings from Clossutton are good rides to pick up, and whoever gets on the fifth string in the bumper, Argento Boy, will pick up a good spare.
Thursday looks difficult from this far out, so it is probably best left until that morning's Examiner, but whatever happens for the next two days, remember Thursday has looked tricky for weeks. The answers won't become evident for all seven races, but if Gordon has a clatter in the first four over days one and two - Teahopoo stands out, or if Corberts Cross wins - that enhances the chance of Noble Yeats.Â
Don't just remember what's winning this week because a yard like Henry de Bromheads could have five in the money before Thursday, and all you will hear is Envoi Allen can't win because X, Y and Z didn't. Horses can outrun themselves here, finish placed, and go unnoticed for what it means for the health and form of a stable. Likewise, favourites finishing second and third can mean they were not as good as people hoped rather than a yard is out of form.
This a marathon, the form from the Supreme will impact the Barring Bingham and the County. The Arkle will have ramifications for the Turners and the Plate. The clues will be ever-evolving, so don't get over-organised with your choices. There are 40 minutes between each race.Â
Stay patient.
