Yesterday eveningâs Galway Plate was the simplex version of a crossword compared to this afternoonâs cryptic Galway Hurdle. I know there are two fewer horses to work through with the field size being 20 compared to 22, but for once, I thanked health and safety because not that long ago the Galway hurdle had a field capacity of 27.
From a jockeyâs perspective, that was a nightmare and more akin to being a passenger on a Japanese bullet train at rush hour than partaking in a horse race. The number of runners was reduced to 24 initially, and latterly to where it is now at 20, and the critical point here is that every horse has a chance when the race starts.
Simply put, somebody had to be 27th jumping the first hurdle and the second. On Galwayâs turning track, the probability of getting past 26 rivals was zero and of getting by 22 was equally slim, so, from early in the contest, those positioned in the rear five had no chance of winning.
Then, if one of those close to the front happened to fall early, the pile-up was more like the Tour de France, and in a race where enough luck is already required, the limit of 20 was suitable for the course being tackled.
Fewer horses and connections get the opportunity to run, but it also means, like yesterdayâs Plate, that more have to show their hand to make the line-up, heightening the competition everywhere else.
The prize money then brought a field of horses this year where only one didnât compete in at least one of the major spring festivals of Cheltenham, Aintree, Punchestown or Fairyhouse. Anna Bunnia is the one, and she was well placed by her trainer John McConnell to win the Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr in April, where she was the only Irish runner and picked up the ÂŁ60,000 contest.
Summer jump racing used to be the club competitions, and the winter National Hunt was inter-county, but Galwayâs two primary jump races are not summer races anymore, nor have they been for a while, and as long they hold their value, will likely never be again.
Still, the winner - or an opinion of what might win - has to be formed, so where do you start? The same place, as usual: by selecting a few to rule out. Age is a good guide for that. The demographic trend points to those between five and nine, which rules out Tudor City, as heâs too old, and The Tide Turns and Celestial Horizon for being too young.
Seventeen left! Five of the last six winners have carried 11st or more, which only casts doubt over Glan, and then it starts to get hard, so I have decided to rule out those who have run below form on an undulating track. That resulted in one more, Heia, as all the rest have won or competed to standard at courses with stiff finishes or downhill runs at some stage in their life.
Those in the age bracket of five and six are likely to be physically still maturing, so they could defy recent penalties for winning. Still, Santa Rossa, The Very Man and Felix Desjy are likely to be in the handicapperâs grip now, so they are excluded too, having risen 10, seven and six pounds in recent months.
That only narrows the field to 12, and none of the yards with runners left seem out of form. Some have more winners than others, but when you check the expected level of how their horses are estimated to run, only Gordon Elliott and John McConnell fall below the 50% run-to-form gauge in the last 14 days. Gordon has eight winners in that period, and John has two, so why canât they win this?
I knew it was cryptic when I glanced at it, so now itâs pure opinion and preference to find a logic for my selection. Splitting these 12, seven are second-season novices, and five are around a bit longer. Two of those - Ballyadam and Embittered - are dropping in the handicap, which means we know what they couldnât do. Anna Bunina is better at flat tracks and, with her Ayr penalty, could be exposed at Galway, so that group is now two: Jesse Evans and Shewearsitwell.
Top Bandit looks to most to have to do with the others as his only handicap run was disappointing, and Vina Ardanza got a very clever ride to finish third at Aintree, which might flatter his mark.
Party Central looks moody but talented, and the climb here could give her reason to back out. Farout is a course winner but pulled too hard and faltered late here on Monday, so he has to bounce back from that. That leaves Adamantly chosen, My Mate Mozzie and Autumn Evening.
Thatâs about as far as I can go with this crossword, and I will have to wait for tomorrowâs edition to find the answers I couldnât, but for tiny stakes, I might put the five I have together and see if I have the tricast.
Unlimited access. Half the price.
Try unlimited access from only âŹ1.25 a week
Already a subscriber? Sign in
