Talking Horses: Thunder can strike twice in Guineas

Given his record in the first Classic of the season - 10 wins and counting - it’s no surprise that the market is headed by a colt trained by Aidan O’Brien.

As one door closes, another opens with the final day of the jumps season at Punchestown Saturday running in tandem with 2000 Guineas day at Newmarket, the first big date on the British Flat calendar.

Given his record in the first Classic of the season - 10 wins and counting - it’s no surprise that the market is headed by a colt trained by Aidan O’Brien.

However, Wembley does not have the profile of a typical Ballydoyle 2000 Guineas favourite in that he won just one of his six starts as a two-year-old.

The only colt in the line-up representing super-sire Galileo, Wembley finished second on four occasions last season, ending his campaign by chasing home St Mark’s Basilica in the Dewhurst Stakes last October having been thwarted by Thunder Moon in the National Stakes at the Curragh a month earlier.

Better ground and the step up to a mile should aid his cause but his underwhelming CV as a two-year-old tempers enthusiasm. He’s clearly talented but the suspicion is he’ll be vulnerable if there’s a genuine superstar in opposition.

Stablemate Battleground could be that superstar and, as a son of War Front out of Arc heroine Found, he’s certainly bred to be one. He should relish conditions and looks sure to put on a bold bid in the hands of Frankie Dettori.

However, the single most visually impressive performance from a two-year-old colt last season was put up by Thunder Moon in the National Stakes when he showed an explosive turn of foot to get the better of Wembley on fast ground.

The Joseph O’Brien-trained son of Zoffany surrendered his unbeaten record when third in the Dewhurst on his final start of the season but he had his excuses on that occasion, not least the soft ground that blunted his speed. Nevertheless, he still travelled like the best colt in the race and the conditions he’ll encounter should be far more to his liking. It’s an open race but the suspicion is Thunder Moon is the fastest colt in the line-up and that speed can burn off the opposition.

In the Newmarket undercard, Pyledriver can get back to winning ways in the Betfair Exchange Jockey Club Stakes.

A dual Group 2 winner as a three-year-old, Pyledriver never landed a blow in the Derby but ran a fine race when third to Galileo Chrome in the St Leger.

The suspicion is he’ll continue to fall short at Group 1 level as a four-year-old but this assignment looks a good opportunity to add to his Group 2 haul.

Elsewhere at Newmarket, recent Newbury scorer Came From The Dark can follow up in the Group 3 Betfair Palace House Stakes while Bright Melody gets the vote in the “My Oddsboost” On Betfair Suffolk Stakes.

The fillies take centre stage Sunday and the Qipco 1000 Guineas Stakes revolves around red-hot favourite Santa Barbara.

A Camelot half-sister to Iridessa, Santa Barbara only has a Curragh maiden win to her name but has been talked up as an absolute machine and her prospects were boosted yesterday when Pretty Gorgeous was ruled out.

If Santa Barbara’s as good as she’s reputed to be, she won’t be beaten but she may need to be the second coming to defy her inexperience.

With her price being so short, it makes sense to go down the each-way route and Thunder Beauty appeals at a big price.

The daughter of Night Of Thunder began her career by winning a Curragh maiden over six furlongs and shaped as though the step up a mile would really suit when fifth to Shale over seven furlongs in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes last September.

She ended her season on a low note when seventh in the Marcel Boussac on Arc day but that run is easily forgiven as the ground at Longchamp was bottomless on that occasion.

She obviously needs to take a huge step forward to win a Guineas but Ken Condon already has a Classic on his CV and he’s not known for tilting at windmills. She may not prove a match for Santa Barbara but it will be no great surprise if she outruns her odds in a Guineas that looks to lack real depth.

Elsewhere at Newmarket, Queen Power looks the one to beat in the Group 2 Betfair Dahlia Stakes while A’Shaari should take quite a bit of beating in the Betfair Pretty Polly Stakes.

Selections

Saturday

Newmarket 1.50: Bright Melody

Newmarket 2.25: Came From The Dark

Newmarket 3.00: Pyledriver

Newmarket 3.40: Thunder Moon (nap)

Sunday

Newmarket 2.25: A’Shaari

Newmarket 3.00: Queen Power

Newmarket 3.40: Thunder Beauty (Each-way)