The starter’s rostrum is coming into view now, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle almost upon us.
On March 16, a Cheltenham Festival like no other will get under way, though most acknowledge it should have been held behind closed doors 12 months ago. Hindsight is no good to anyone though and racing has been a rare beacon in the meantime.
One presumes the British government won’t be overly hasty in allowing any crowds beyond the necessary during St Patrick’s week. That removes a huge element of the occasion, particularly from a social sense but from a sporting one too. Celebrating is part of winning. Quiet satisfaction is fine but howling at the moon and roaring ‘Simply The Best’ at 3am enhances the memory – if the memory, indeed, survives the assault on its sense.
However, we can still try to pick a winner. And from a pure fan’s perspective, appreciate and revel in the equine and human brilliance that will be unleashed. There will be many talking points.
With 22 days to go until Robbie Supple lets Appreciate It, Metier and co go, hopefully at the first attempt, there will be many questions raised between now and then.
Here are just some that spring to mind.
Where will Willie go with his plethora of stars with multiple entries?
This applies primarily to Willie Mullins novices and mares, though there might not be as much potential for swerve balls as in the past. Either way, the championship horses have clearly mapped routes.
The Mullins thought process is a cause of considerable angst on social media, particularly among those that like to have an ante-post flutter. There is always risk involved in betting without so much information and when the trainer doesn’t know, even if he thinks he knows, you’re playing with fire.
Brilliant as he is, his initial view might not be correct. Or indeed, it might, and he might still change it.
Sometimes, there seems no logic. Not many would have expected Black Hercules to rock up in the Marsh Chase in 2016, when the National Hunt Chase over a mile and a half further was thought by veteran observers to be more his thing.
When Faugheen was winning over three miles at Limerick in December 2013, he wasn’t considered a future Champion Hurdle winner.
Go as far back as Florida Pearl. Sure, he was a big unit, but did anyone who watched him show such speed from the turn for home in the two-mile Champion Bumper in 1997 think he would be winning the Royal and Sun Alliance Chase, now the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, over just more than three miles 12 months later?
Almost everyone, including Mullins, sends their novices hurdling before jumping fences. But he has long thought outside the narrow confines of the box, and often to successful effect.
What would happen if it didn’t rain a drop between now and tomorrow three weeks? Would Appreciate It still line up in the Supreme or be rerouted to the Ballymore?
I have been told such lack of clarity is bad for racing. I just can’t fathom the rationale in that. I get that it’s the Olympics, the shop window, but it’s still racing. You know the field when the declarations are made. What’s hard to understand about that? It’s up to you to determine whether the risk is worth the wager.
And with Mullins, the risk is considerable. Family, Closutton staff and owners know that second-guessing the maestro is a waste of time. Not least because he might not know himself. Many an owner can relate to being told of an intended engagement a half-hour before the close of decs and then finding their steed somewhere else, all the information in that famed brain boiling down to instinct and a button pressed on the computer right on deadline.
His nephew, Danny has joked about only being sure if a horse would take up an engagement if he were on its back going down to the start.
So keep that in mind and stick to ‘non-runner, no bet’.
Why does Cheltenham host mares’ championship races?
It makes sense to go to this one next, given that the aforementioned Mullins maddened many by winning the Mares’ Hurdle five years in a row, with a horse that was good enough to beat bona fide Grade One horses in the Punchestown Stayers’ Hurdle the following month. The clue of course, is in the five in a row.
The detractors of the Mares’ Hurdle, Mares’ Novices Hurdle and new Mares’ Chase argue that they lack quality and by their existence, dilute the long-established championship races.
As a fan, you want to see the best take each other on, but owning a racehorse is an expensive hobby. And I would prefer to win a Mares’ Hurdle than be third in a Champion Hurdle, any day of the week.
What you find too when people list the names of horses that might lead to the anticipation of an enthralling contest, is that half of them could never actually win it. The kick is in the pretence of better competition, a deeper field, a bigger field.
And they talk of taking the easier option as if it is cowardly. I would call it sensible.
The Mares’ Hurdle has developed to be a quality affair, with two of the last four renewals contending for race of the festival. And that is no surprise. The reason for its existence amid the enhancement of the mares’ programme was to incentivise the purchase of mares to race and over time, that has occurred.
Confined races and bonuses are a part of that, but having confined graded races, just as you have in Flat racing, is imperative. That is what led to Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls and co to persuade owners to shell out big sums of money for mares — whereas not too long ago, a National Hunt breeder wept when his mare threw a filly foal.
What’s more, for the owners that are not breeders, there is now a considerable sell-on value when their charge goes into retirement, her success on the track increasing her value as a potential broodmare.
Critics say Dawn Run would never have run in a Champion Hurdle or Gold Cup if she were around now. Maybe she wouldn’t have. But she is very clearly an outlier. Come up with another example. Come up with 10. Mares were not racing and there certainly were not enough quality mares to win Champion Hurdles and Gold Cups.
People lauding the connections of Epatante and Honeysuckle, joint favourites for the Champion Hurdle, for going that route, though the former would probably struggle to see out the extra five furlongs of the mares’ race, are missing the point entirely.
It is because of the mares’ programme that they are there.
How will Brexit impact on proceedings?
Willie Mullins and Jessica Harrington have tested the waters with Grangee at Market Rasen and Magic Of Light at Ascot.
There was an initial scare about having to fork out VAT of 20% of the value of a horse, which would be recoverable after three months, that meant that bringing a team of 40 or 50 horses would represent a mammoth outgoing. That was deferred as officials in both countries lobby to mitigate the potentially prohibitive measure.
“You’d want to have a bipartite agreement (between the UK and Ireland) to cut off the low hanging fruit around horse transport for sport. I’m sure this is an unforeseen and unintended consequence of Brexit,” said Ascot’s director of racing and public affairs, Nick Smith.
There is significantly increased paperwork with new licences required and added health checks, leading to increase of costs, even without the VAT.
“It’s more the paperwork that’s the problem and what costs money,” said Harrington at the time. “Before, we could just drive to the ferry, get on one end and off the other, and the only costs you had were the box, diesel, and the lads you took.
“Now we have all this paperwork to do for the Department of Agriculture and vets to pay to get all these forms done. That’s what is so seriously annoying.
“I knew this was going to happen because I know what it was like before we had the Tripartite Agreement, and we were all in the EU.”
What about Covid?
At present, the normal testing and travel restrictions apply, as does the fact that racing will be behind closed doors. At present, jockeys are allowed to travel as elite athletes without needing to quarantine. They must test negatively for Covid-19, however.
As of now, with point-to-pointing categorised as not being elite, amateur jockeys will not be allowed travel and races such previously confined to amateur riders will now be open to professional jockeys, and the likes of Jamie Codd, Patrick Mullins, Derek O’Connor and last year’s Foxhunter Chase heroine Maxine O’Sullivan will be staying at home.
There remains some conjecture about the number of staff trainers will be able to send with their teams, but the aforementioned trial runs suggest it is manageable, with testing and the normal protocols.
The absence of crowds could lead to some Irish horses not making the trip however, for while having a Cheltenham victory on the CV is the dream of everyone in racing, for the smaller operations with less darts to fire, there will undoubtedly be the temptation to target the excellent prizemoney on offer at Fairyhouse and Punchestown, and maybe even Aintree if it comes to it.
For owners, having a runner at Cheltenham is one thing. Without an atmosphere and the opportunity to celebrate in suitably raucous fashion, it might just make sense for some to hold fire, while potential rivals empty themselves at Prestbury Park.
Can Al Boum Photo emulate Best Mate?
It is interesting that Best Mate struggled to get credit for winning three Gold Cups in succession. Al Boum Photo has a similar profile but much like Dawn Run with the mares, this is due to a historical comparison.
Arkle was a freak, who constantly won handicaps giving eye-watering amounts of weight away to the opposition.
In the modern era, even getting a Gold Cup winner to the post the following year is an achievement in itself. Henrietta Knight and Terry Biddlecombe didn’t campaign Best Mate as sparingly as Willie Mullins has Al Boum Photo.
This is peak Mullins. It wasn’t the original plan remember, injury holding up his prep for 2019 until Tramore in January. He was declared for the Irish Gold Cup at Dublin Racing Festival the following month but withdrawn on the day, due to the quick ground.
Once he prevailed at Cheltenham off that unusual preparation, Mullins was never going to rewrite that particular playbook. It isn’t something he does for his other Gold Cup contenders. But it worked again last year.
There are plenty rivals this time around and the champion is far from a shoo-in. But he is the one to beat, having made it three-in-a-row at Tramore. He will be cherry ripe when it counts.
What would be the best story for racing?
Honeysuckle winning the Champion Hurdle. Rachael Blackmore will hate the reason, but she will have become the first woman to ride the winner of any of the championship races. It would be an important, critical step.
Her role at the very top of the ladder of National Hunt jockeys is cemented now, and the over-compensatory praise that tends to go the way of successful female jockeys is beginning to die off too. She is now in the Paul Townend zone, where we expect her to do the business.
But, to win a Champion Hurdle would be something else. Honeysuckle is hugely popular. Mares have always sparked that reaction – except when running in the Mares’ Hurdle it seems – and Blackmore’s partnership has just multiplied the public love.
Mainstream media would latch onto it and propel racing to the front pages. Twelve months after Cheltenham was blamed for everything from world poverty to Donald Trump, that would be welcome indeed.
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