Follow the Likely Lad
With a record 67 horses in the handicap proper this year, the Martell Cognac Grand National looks set to be an even more competitive event than usual.
Nicky Henderson’s Marlborough and Willie Mullins’ Florida Pearl top the weights with 11st 12lb but it is another Irish challenger who looks to be well in at this early point in time.
Davids Lad, from the yard of Tony Martin, must have a winning chance after being allotted 10st 13lb in the original handicap.
With a number of higher weighted horses likely to run, the weights could remain around the same and it looks a fair mark for a horse that could have been in the shake up last year if it were not for a jumping blunder four fences from home.
Martin has given his charge just the one outing so far this season when he finished distressed some way behind Foxchapel King at Fairyhouse.
Despite that disappointing outing, Martin reports his charge to be in fine form and the trainer is satisfied with his weight.
“Davids Lad carried more than that last year and he was going well until he came down,” he said.
“He’s in good order and I’d be happy enough with him and hopefully that’s where we’ll head. We’ll just try and get a couple of runs into him.
“He’ll have to have good ground – there’s no point going there if it was very soft. Yielding and soft ground he’d get away with it but not heavy.
“Hopefully Timmy (Murphy) will be available, he won the Irish National on him.”
If Davids Lad gets there in one piece, he looks to hold a great chance but he will find one or two others also up for the challenge.
The Paul Nicholls-trained Ad Hoc came a cropper at the same fence as Davids Lad when he ran into the back of the faller.
He was lobbing along nicely at the time and looked another sure to be in the shake up had he gone the distance under 11st 1lb.
He has also got 10st 13lb this time around after a couple of decent prep runs over hurdles.
Ad Hoc had his last run in the Unicoin New Homes Spa Hurdle at Cheltenham in December when he finished third behind Stromness and he his now due for an outing over fences, probably at Haydock, before Aintree.
Barry Simpson, racing manager for owner Sir Robert Ogden is not impressed by the weight given to this particular runner.
He said: “My initial reaction is Ad Hoc has 5lb more than I expected and he is only getting 6lb from Fadalko, who is rated 161.”
Should Ad Hoc jump round safely this year, you can expect him to be running for a place at least.
Sue Smith can provide another challenger for the places in the shape of Ardent Scout, already a winner over the big Aintree fences this season.
The 10-year-old proved he has the heart to tackle the massive National obstacles when running away with with of the traditional trial races, the Tote Becher Chase at the end of November.
Ardent Scout absolutely sluiced home by 24 lengths from Amberleigh House that day and, although it was over a mile and furlong shorter than the National trip, he still looked to have something in the tank.
Since then he has turned in a perfectly satisfactory run behind Mini Sensation in the Singer & Friedlander National Trial at Uttoxeter.
His burden of 10st 2lb looks very favourable, a view which his trainer concurs with.
“I’m very happy with Ardent Scout’s weight. He ran well the other day,” said Smith.
Three previous National winners have been entered this year with Papillon, winner in 2000, on 10st 11lb, 2001 victor Red Marauder on 10st 6lb and last year’s winner Bindaree on 10st 9lb.
But Papillon and Red Marauder have both had their problems in training and are heading towards the twilight of their careers, while Bindaree has been struggling to find his winning form this campaign.
One long shot who might be worth a small each-way interest is the Enda Bolger-trained Spot Thedifference.
The JP McManus-owned 10-year-old has not been seen out yet this season but he was travelling well when he unseated rider David Casey in last year’s marathon.
Spot Thedifference was really unlucky in the fact he was left with nowhere to go jumping a fence and he has been allotted 9st 10lb this time round after carrying 10st last year.
Of course he would need a lot of the main contenders to pull out of the race before he could get a run but should he be lucky enough, he could provide the value.
Frank Berry, racing manager to McManus said: “Spot Thedifference was running quite well last year. If the ground was good he looks off a good mark if he got a run.”
Although Spot Thedifference and Ardent Scout both hold chances off low weights, when push comes to shove they may find the class of Davids Lad and Ad Hoc a bit too much to cope with.
The Irish challenge was last successful with Papillon in 2000, but you can expect a loud cheer from the Irish contingent again this year as Davids Lad can get the better of Ad Hoc.
Martell Grand National betting:
William Hill bet: 12-1 Ad Hoc, 14-1 Davids Lad, Gunner Welburn, 16-1 Chives, Mini Sensation, 20-1 Bindaree, Carbury Cross, Cyfor Malta, Gingembre, Iris Bleu, Kingsmark, Montys Pass, 25-1 bar.
