Five horses that could make or break punters at Cheltenham
One of the most talked-about horses of the entire National Hunt season, it all comes down to tomorrow’s first race, the Supreme Novices, in which Min bids to give trainer Willie Mullins and owner Rich Ricci a fourth consecutive victory in the Festival opener.
In Douvan and Vautour, the last two winners of the race, he has big boots to fill and the jury is still out as to whether he can do so.
After months of positivity in the Supreme market, an uneasiness has crept in to his position in the last couple of weeks and, as a result, the price is now much closer to where it should be, and a significant gamble away from the even-money quotes of recent months.
As well as the strength of the British challenge, particularly from the stable of Nicky Henderson, which will be represented by Altior and Buveur D’Air, there is stable companion Yorkhill to overcome.
As an unexposed novice, it’s difficult to gauge how good Min is, but his undoubted potential is also evident, remember, in a number of rivals.
Min showed a tendency to race quite keenly in his two runs to date for Mullins, and while a faster pace may help him settle better, it’s not guaranteed. There’s also the razzmatazz surrounding the first race. Will his temperament stand up to the occasion?
So much to consider, and yet getting it right in the first race might be the most important decision a punter makes this week. Are you with or against Min? Much rests on it.
Stepping into the yawning chasm left by the withdrawal of Faugheen is a formidable task, even for a mare of Annie Power’s class. It’s a remarkably powerful indication of the strength of the Mullins stable that she could be drafted in after the forced withdrawal of two of the yard’s runners, and still sit at the top of the market.
With Nichols Canyon and Sempre Medici left to represent the team, it was the correct decision to supplement Rich Ricci’s mare for the race, but her prep has been far from ideal.
Numerous times Mullins produced Quevega to win the Mares’ Hurdle without a prep run, a remarkable feat, no doubt. But this race is on a different level entirely, and Annie Power will need to step up considerably on her sole outing of the season if she is to beat some of the top two-milers in the business.
She may well prove good enough, but punters have had their fingers burnt on her two previous visits to the Festival, and are entitled to be wary.
There was no shame in either defeat, as she had the Mares’ Hurdle at her mercy until that unfortunate fall at the final hurdle last year, while stamina likely caught her out when beaten by More Of That in the World Hurdle.
This is her toughest assignment to date and, that in mind, it is understandable she has been somewhat uneasy in the market.
At current odds of 2-1, victory would only allow most loyal supporters break even, following previous failures at this meeting. Somehow, that doesn’t seem worth the risk. A race to savour, not sell out on.
Arguably the most solid favourite of the week, the Colin Tizzard-trained gelding has been on a steep upward curve ever since stepping up to staying distances, and the World Hurdle provides a platform to prove himself the undisputed star of the division.
His ever-optimistic trainer believes he can win the Gold Cup in 2017, which would be his novice season over fences.
He certainly looks as though chasing will be his forte, and even allowing some latitude with Tizzard’s statement, he’ll have to account for an unspectacular bunch of stayers in the World Hurdle if he’s to convince the rest of the National Hunt fraternity he has the makings of a future Gold Cup winner.
The layers, as is their wont, will seek a reason to take him on this week and, if the prohibitive odds are not reason alone, then the going may be.
Some shrewd players are not convinced quick ground will bring out the best in the eight-year- old, despite the evidence from last year’s Aintree National Meeting, when he appeared to have the measure of the Mouse Morris-trained Alpha Des Obeaux when that rival took a crashing fall at the final flight.
Cheltenham’s officials rate the going ‘good to soft’ in advance of the meeting, and it’s hard to imagine it will get any quicker than that before Thursday.
That won’t be a problem. Alpha Des Obeaux is a respected rival, but course form and a clear advantage on ratings makes Thistlecrack very difficult to oppose.
Lightly raced, but very exciting’ describes the Mullins mare, who is held in the highest of regard in her star-studded stable.
It’s difficult to find a star without a flaw, and this one’s somewhat patchy jumping is, at this stage, her Achilles heel.
It’s something the Mullins team is certain to have worked on and, while the ground won’t be fast, quicker conditions than she encountered at Fairyhouse in late January may provide some assistance.
And it is that, and only that. which casts a doubt about this mare, as she looks a real class act. The form of her maiden hurdle, on good ground at Punchestown in May, has worked out particularly well, and she could hardly have been more impressive on her seasonal return.
This week’s race, the Trull House Stud Mares’ Novice Hurdle, which is a new addition to the meeting, has attracted a fine entry, but few can boast the promise of this lady.
Three times a winner in six outings on the level when trained by Nicolas Clement in France, she is versatile with regard to the going, and nobody knows better than her new trainer what it takes to win a mares’ race at this meeting.
Limini is currently a shade of odds-on to extend her unblemished record over hurdles to three, and overall winning sequence to six.
It’s early days in her career, and Thursday’s race will reveal plenty, but she has the potential to follow in the hoof prints of more established stable companions, such as Quevega, Annie Power and Vroum Vroum Mag.
I’ve never been convinced of his stamina for the Gold Cup trip and there’s nothing in this season’s form to date to change my mind.
In the King George, over three miles, he was caught late by another doubtful stayer, Cue Card, and that would seem to have exposed the limit of his stamina.
Had Don Cossack not fallen at the second-last, he may well have collared the two of them. But that is conjecture, and the available evidence of the race suggests Vautour stayed three miles - but only just.
Ruby Walsh, as he promised prior to the race, rode him as though there were no stamina doubts, sending him on from a long way out. He was still a length and a half to the good over the final fence and travelling well, but the finishing kick of Cue Card proved irresistible.
That was on a flat track, over three miles. Add in two and a half furlongs on a course as demanding as Cheltenham, with the famous hill to climb to the winning post, and you have a measurably more difficult task.
It will be disappointing if Vautour doesn’t travel like the best horse, but converting that into a win will take something special, particularly if the wheels start to spin as he reaches the rising ground for the final time.
It’s also significantly discouraging that his owner, Rich Ricci, admitted the horse hasn’t shown the same spark as he did in the weeks coming up to this meeting in 2014 and 2015.
As I see it, his backers are banking on two things: that he really comes alive in the next few days, and that he will get quicker ground. At this stage, they are about as certain as his stamina. As a punter, there are too many doubts to reason he is worth a bet.
