South African star Shea can right the wrong of Ascot defeat
That's one of the first questions punters must ask themselves ahead of this afternoon's Darley July Cup (3.50) at Newmarket.
Shea Shea, trained by South Africa's master trainer, Mike De Kock, flew clear of the runners on the far side of the track but, on the near side, the finishing kick of Sole Power, under an inspired ride by Johnny Murtagh, gained the day.
The winner, trained by Eddie Lynam, loves to be held up off a fast pace on equally quick ground, and he should have both of those in his favour this afternoon.
With Krypton Factor and the progressive Hamza among the likely pacesetters, this race should fall nicely for those ridden to benefit from patient riding.
But, one essential difference between the Ascot race and today's feature is the trip. The King's Stand is run over five furlongs, while there's another furlong to be negotiated here.
Sole Power's style of running suggests he'll stay but the fact he has never won beyond five furlongs is a concern.
While there's enough in his favour to expect another good run, it's difficult to be confident about his chance.
Shea Shea has been campaigned over the minimum trip recently but he has winning form over six (once at Group 1 level) and seven furlongs (once at Listed level) in his native country.
He travels well off a fast pace and if held onto a little longer, he should have no trouble getting the trip.
Australian challenger Shamexpress travelled well in the King’s Stand Stakes, quickening once but ultimately left for dead by Shea Shea in the final furlong. He can improve but will need to do so if he’s to get competitive in any meaningful way.
Another Royal Ascot race which is likely to have a significant bearing on this race is the six-furlong Golden Jubilee in which Lethal Force beat Society Rock.
The two line up once more and, like the King's Stand Stakes but in contrasting manner, there was a feeling the winner may have pinched the race.
Under a canny front-running ride from Adam Kirby, Lethal Force set a modest enough pace and kicked off it.
Society Rock, who had assumed his customary position out the back, was left with plenty to do.
To his credit, he produced a sustained effort all the way to the line but he never looked like getting there.
James Fanshawe's horse had given Lethal Force five pounds and a head beating when both made their 2013 debut, at York, in May.
It's very unlikely that Lethal Force will enjoy an uncontested lead this time but, as he's a progressive sort, it's not a formality that Society Rock will reverse the Ascot form.
On balance, though, I would prefer the Fanshawe horse to Clive Cox’s grey.
The Aidan O'Brien-trained Gale Force Ten is a very interesting runner. He was beaten less than a length when fourth in the French 2000 Guineas and then ran stable companion Magician to three and a half lengths when second in the Irish Guineas.
Ridden prominently when dropped to seven furlongs for the Jersey Stakes, he looked beaten when headed inside the final furlong but battled back to beat Montiridge by a head. That form took something of a boost when the runner-up won a one-mile Listed race here earlier in the week.
O'Brien has had success in top-level sprints in the past and the use of blinkers for the first time might sharpen him up sufficiently. That said, I just don't think he has the pace of some of these out-and-out speedsters and he'll likely have to settle for a minor role.
Slade Power, stable companion to Sole Power, looks progressive but needs a big leap forward if he’s to win.
I tried hard to make a case for Sovereign Debt but it’s extremely unlikely that the drop to this trip will prompt a first victory in this grade.
He ran a super race to take second place behind Farhh in the Lockinge, where he benefited from being held up off the fast pace.
I doubt they can go fast enough for this to drop in to his lap, but he’s worth noting for future assignments.
Former Dubai Golden Shaheen winner Krypton Factor looks to have regressed.
It’s not the strongest of races and may not take a huge amount of winning.
Shea Shea travels strongly, has a fine turn of pace and should have little trouble with the trip.
He looked as though he was ridden to win the race on the far side in the King’s Stand Stakes and I strongly believe he can reassert the kind of authority he showed when he and Sole Power met earlier in the year at Meydan.
For each-way punters, he looks a smashing bet at 4-1.
