Modun can return to winning ways
One of two runners for Godolphin, with Silvestre de Sousa riding Calvados Blues for Mahmood Al Zarooni and Harry Bentley on the selection for Saeed bin Suroor, the five-year-old showed some of his old spark on his last outing and will be hard to keep out of the fold if finding his best form now.
De Sousa is clearly the more experienced pilot and, presumably, had the choice, and his mount, Calvados Blues, had some very good form on the turf at a higher grade in Meydan last year.
He was off the track between June of last year and his return at Newmarket last month but there was enough in the run to suggest he hasn’t deteriorated significantly in the meantime. He sweated up a little beforehand and ran with his head at a near-90-degree angle to his body for much of the trip, but he found plenty to finish with only stable companion Laajooj in front of him.
If he has come on appreciably for that run then he should go well but if he persists with his tendency to carry his head to the right and hang left under pressure, he will struggle.
Modun was ridden with exaggerated restraint when third behind the terrifically progressive Melbourne Cup-bound Mount Athos and Brown Panther in the near-14-furlong Geoffrey Freer last time out.
The drop back to a mile and a half and return to Kempton looks a very smart move from Saeed bin Suroor as the colt won this race in convincing style in 2011. Then trained by Michael Stoute, he was given a terrific ride by Shane Kelly, who moved his mount forward when he realised the tempo was not what he needed.
Delivered to challenge in the straight, he found plenty and won with even more in hand than the official winning margin might portray. That victory prompted his current owners to purchase the then four-year-old but things have not gone to plan in the interim.
However, that most recent run at Newbury was a step forward on what he had previously achieved for Godolphin and he may now be ready to resume the progress of last term.
Mijhaar was a really promising sort last year, winning readily on his seasonal debut and creeping up the handicap courtesy of a number of good efforts in decent company, perhaps most notably when less than nine lengths behind subsequent King George winner Nathaniel, off level weights, in the Group 2 King Edward VII Stake at Royal Ascot.
He began this season in similar vein, being placed in a couple of Listed Handicaps before stumbling when poised to get deeply involved in the finish of the John Smith’s Cup Handicap.
He hasn’t been seen since but a couple of things trouble me with him. Firstly, for all his promise, he has won just one race, and, secondly, he is a son of Shirocco, whose progeny have a pretty poor record on the all-weather. The talent may be there but, on all known evidence, he’s a risky proposition.
Sagramor, who is second-favourite, races like he will stay the trip but, as a son of Pastoral Pursuits, that’s far from guaranteed. He’s likely to held up to ensure he sees it out.
He was ridden with real restraint despite a slow gallop when runner-up to Carlton House in the Brigadier Gerard at Sandown back in May and, surprisingly, he was momentarily caught for pace before running on well into second place. That gives hope that he will stay the extra couple of furlongs but, with the doubts in his pedigree, it wouldn’t be prudent to back him at a short price.
The pace angle in this race is quite important, as a decent, even gallop would suit the powerful Modun. Fattsota, who brought his form to a new level when leading all the way at Ascot last time, is likely to try and steal a soft lead. He may have to work to get across from his stall nine draw and he may have competition for the lead with Calvados Blues. If allowed to dictate, he should outrun odds of 16-1.
However, Modun, drawn three, should be positioned to race behind the pace from the outset and Harry Bentley can employ the colt’s turn of pace to have his say as the line looms. At odds of 6-1, he rates strong each-way material.
