Kailani way overpriced at 10-1 for Ribblesdale
This year’s running of the Epsom Oaks, in which the selection was seventh, would suggest there’s very little between the top middle-distance fillies of this generation and yet The Fugue, third behind Was in the fillies’ Classic, is a short-priced favourite to win today’s race.
For the second successive year the fillies’ Classic was run at a crawl, with the first couple home coming from those that raced prominently. The aforementioned The Fugue was noted finishing strongly to take third place under what was probably not the best of rides.
Sure, she was a little unlucky but she looked like the winner from a couple of furlongs out and took a longer than desirable to really get going. The race quickened from the Tattenham Corner and making up ground was never going to be easy and so I will concede that she may have been a touch unfortunate.
But odds of 2-1 look a little on the shy side for what is a very competitive race and it must be pointed out that more than just The Fugue can boast hard-luck stories from the Oaks.
Kailani, supplemented for that race after winning the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket, was slow to start and had her ground taken as Maybe tried to get cover near the rails.
As the race began to unfold, the daughter of 2002 Oaks winner Kazzia clearly struggled with the infamous run around the aforementioned Tattenham Corner, unable to get balanced. To make matters worse, her old foe Maybe gave her a broadside as they began to straighten up and if it hadn’t already been finished, her race was effectively over from that stage.
And yet, remarkably, the Mahmood Al Zarooni-trained filly kept on in good style to be beaten only six lengths.
Back on a more conventional track and with a little more luck in-running, I believe she can run a huge race. That Oaks effort is best forgotten and double-figure odds surely underestimate her chance quite considerably.
Others worth a mention are the Michael Bell-trained Momentary, who caused a 33-1 shock when touching off subsequent Oaks runner-up and one of today’s rivals, Shirocco Star, at Newmarket last month. With just two runs to her name — both this season — she is entitled to show considerable improvement and cannot be disregarded.
Dermot Weld sends over Princess Highway, who has won both starts this year. She had Was behind when winning the Blue Wind Stakes at Naas last month and she has got to be respected but it remains to be seen whether or not the extra couple of furlongs is what she needs. If it proves within compass, she could reach the frame.
I was disappointed with Vow’s effort at Epsom, having been impressed with her Lingfield Oaks Trial victory. She had the run of the race at Epsom, challenging inside the final couple of furlongs, but was unable to sustain her run, eventually finishing fourth.
Stamina surely wasn’t the issue as she had won over a mile and a half previously and the Oaks itself was not a thorough test. Perhaps she’s not up to this class or perhaps the track was not to her liking but, either way, I’ll be giving her a skip this afternoon.
There is rain promised and if that materialises, it’ll detract from the chance of a number of the runners but selection Kailani is not one of them. She’ll cope with whatever conditions prevail and with the Epsom defeat easily forgiven, expect to see a big Royal Ascot run from the regally bred filly.
