Dave’s looks a Gold Cup dream at double-digit odds
The gelding made a massively impressive debut for Paul Nicholls when winning at Sandown back in March and he so nearly followed up when runner-up to Always Waining in the Topham Chase over the Grand National fences at Aintree.
On both occasions, he impressed with the way he travelled and even more so with a display of jumping that was little short of breath-taking. He's clearly a horse of huge ability and, while he didn't find as much as looked likely when second at Aintree, he is only a five-year-old and could have significant improvement in him.
Whilst watching the Aintree race, he reminded me of another French import, Cyfor Malta – the difference being that the latter, trained by Martin Pipe, won the Topham in a canter. It's interesting to note that the aforementioned Cyfor Malta was the last five-year-old to win the Paddy Power Gold Cup, doing so off a mark of 150 in 1998. He also won the race again in 2002.
Mon Parrain's bid to emulate his compatriot must come off a two pounds higher rating but there's certainly a chance that a handicap mark of 152 underestimates him and, if that's the case, he could win with his mouth open. The question punters must ask is: do I want to take short odds in such a competitive chase?
It's interesting that Tony McCoy and Ruby Walsh seem to be of the same mind when it comes to Wishfull Thinking - both believe that he was the best novice of last term. McCoy got the better of he gelding when winning the Jewson Novices' Chase on Paul Nolan's Noble Prince, while Ruby chased him home on Thursday's Clonmel Oil Chase winner Blazing Tempo, when in receipt of 21lbs in the Mick The Tent Memorial Handicap Chase at Punchestown at the end of last season.
His trainer, Philip Hobbs, who won the race with Joint Sovereignty back in 1989, has never been afraid to run his better horses off high weights in competitive handicaps, but this is a big ask for Wishfull Thinking, whose jumping improved through last season but would still remain a minor concern – particularly if not fully wound up for his seasonal debut.
Martin Pipe won the race eight times, but son David is yet to put his name on the trophy. His Great Endeavour was sixth last year, when running off a 5lbs lower mark. He put up a better performance when beaten just a length by Poquelin in the Vote AP Gold Cup a month later. He's 2lbs better off here and, given that he gets in off a handy weight, he should certainly be vying for a place – at least.
Noble Alan was just after moving into contention and still travelling well when falling in the Vote AP Gold Cup last year and, off a 1lb lower mark here, he could run a big race. He was in the process of running a big race when stumbling and unshipping his rider at the second last in a Market Rasen chase won by Benny Be Good last time out.
If none the worse for that incident, he could be suited by a strong pace in this race and looks a shade big at odds of around 20-1. He looks to have been brought back in early with this race in mind and could represent value.
But the one to concentrate on is the Nicky Henderson-trained Dave’s Dream, who seems to have an awful lot in his favour.
No-one could accuse him of being the most reliable horse in the world but he has certainly shown plenty of talent in the past and the one and only time to catch him is when he’s fresh.
The imposing gelding has never been beaten on his seasonal debut and, on his first start of last term he absolutely bolted home in a handicap chase at this meeting.
He was disappointing when sent off favourite for the Vote AP Gold Cup (for all intents and purposes, a twin of today’s race) but it’s become clear that he does not carry his form into the season.
He was once rated 147 over hurdles and, for a horse of his scope, he should be better over fences. He’s currently rated that figure over the larger obstacles and that should allow for some room to manoeuvre.
Yesterday’s victory for Tanks For That and a number of fine efforts in defeat for some of his stable companions (most notably Ericht and Semi Colon) indicate that the Seven Barrows Team is in flying form and, at odds of 12-1, Dave’s Dream appeals as a great value bet.
