Rails-loving Rockview a sporting bet
Rockchase Bullet produced a remarkable performance in victory last Saturday but just how effective his modus operandi will prove in the latter stages of the competition will be somewhat revealed tonight. His is not the worst draw of all, but equally he is also not guaranteed a clear run and will need all his guile to qualify to the next stage.
The bookmakers recognise this and it is reflected in odds of 5-1 to win the stake.
In his heat tonight, where Sede Vacante, Leeview Jet, Razldazl Rioga and Colorful Champ all boast claims to victory not only in the heat but also outright, any one of a number of outcomes is possible and thus it’s not the best time to get involved in any of them from an ante-post perspective.
The same logic applies now as in previous rounds — perhaps even more so: the draw is everything. With a distinct advantage for inside runners, getting that rails slot could be the difference between winning and losing.
Razldazl Rioga’s supporters will be hoping that’s not a lesson they learn tonight but he looks the obvious contender to fall foul of the draw.
Being housed in trap two for three consecutive rounds would seem reasonably fortuitous for an inside seed — but not for Rockview Head. Such is the Derby finalist’s attraction to the rails, he has found trouble diving left from traps in both rounds to date.
He certainly ran better than his finishing position suggests when third behind fellow Derby finalist Dream Walker last weekend and, though I’m not sure how he’s going to mastermind a clear run tonight, he is the type to rate a huge danger to all if getting his box.
Were he to qualify for the final and be drawn in his favoured red jacket, there isn’t a dog he would be afraid of. He possesses superb early speed — which he hasn’t been able to display at Curraheen yet — and although he races wide off the last turn, he would lead most dogs in the competition and has the class to win in almost any company.
He is possibly the most draw dependent dog in the entire competition but he is a proven stake winner — he won the brilliant Gallivan-Murphy-Hooper-Dolan Unraced Stake in Tralee, beating one of tonight’s rival, Happy Hermit in the final. Yes, it’s a bit of a punt but, at odds of 20-1 (Bet365), it’s worth taking a chance that his class can carry him through to the final, where the right draw would make him a leading contender.
Newlawn Tock is a dog I’ve been impressed with on a number of occasions this year but I have to say I was just a shade disappointed that he didn’t win more comfortably when leading early in last week’s second round.
The counter-argument is that he was being run down by a Leger runner-up, but that doesn’t wash with me as I don’t think Varra Captain has recaptured his best form.
Although he’d be better served to being on the rails, connections and supporters of Newlawn Tock cannot be too unhappy with the way the draw has worked out. To be considered a likely winner of the stake, he will have to win tonight. He has the pace to lead but he will have to establish a clear advantage over Dream Walker to keep the Derby runner-up at bay. This is the first true test of his Laurels ambitions and, while I’m not ready to back him yet, a convincing victory tonight could alter my thinking.
