Two ways to tackle Ayr Gold Cup puzzle
The ex-Australian colt hasn’t an awful lot to prove at the top level and it seemed the Champion Stakes at Ascot would be a more suitable option to add another string to the his Group 1 bow. But connections must be applauded for this braver move, which could provide some European evidence of his versatility in terms of trip.
To be honest, he hasn’t screamed ‘Arc horse’ to me and I wouldn’t be in a rush to get involved in him at advertised odds.
In recent memory, the modus operandi of the Arc winner is a runner which comes from off the pace with a telling turn of pace which can cut down his/her rivals. Does So You Think possess such a turn of foot?
He’s an impressive stamp of a horse and perhaps unsurprisingly, his acceleration doesn’t appear to be instant. I felt the Irish Champion Stakes reiterated that.
There was never a stage at which I felt he was going to be beaten by Snow Fairy at Leopardstown but, at the same time, he was only just doing enough to keep her at bay.
The Arc will provide a much sterner test and, though Ballydoyle maestro Aidan O’Brien may not have gone to the well with him yet, I’d be waiting until the final declarations before making any commitment to back him.
Were he to take his place in the Arc, that would likely rule out a tilt at the Champion Stakes at Ascot on Champions’ Day less than a fortnight later. He’s currently ante-post favourite for that race but has drifted with some firms.
Even in his absence, it’s pretty hard to separate those behind him in the market. King George winner Nathaniel, impressive French runner Cirrus Des Aigles and dual winner Twice Over have little to set them apart at the moment, while the former Dermot Weld-trained Dubai Prince, who made a successful seasonal debut for Mahmood Al Zarooni yesterday, has been a significant market mover.
Perhaps Cirrus Des Aigles is the most interesting of all and his price could react to Sarafina’s performance in the Arc.
He tried to make all in the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud back in June but was picked up late by the Aga Khan’s mare. However, he’s unbeaten in three runs since then , becoming more impressive with each outing.
Those victories have come on soft going but he has form in the top grade on a faster surface and, in any case, there must be a strong chance that there’ll be cut in the ground at Ascot come October 15.
`Back to matters in hand and, unless ridiculously oversubscribed handicaps get your pulse racing, it's not a great weekend on the horse racing front. Such is the commitment to trying to work out the Ayr Gold Cup, I often skip over it in favour of something a little more malleable but this year I've decided to tackle it two ways.
Finding a pace angle is usually my first point of contact with a race but I must admit I'm struggling with this one.
I don't doubt that something will choose to take the race by the scruff of the neck but which horse that is is quite difficult to ascertain. Hence the two-pronged approach.
If there is no pace then the winner is most likely to come from those which race prominently from the outset. Croisultan fits into that category and given that Liam McAteer's raider is dropping back from Group 3 company to high handicap level, he looks capable of a big show.
He was perhaps a little unlucky-in-running in the Renaissance Stakes at the Curragh last time out, when stuck in behind the leaders with nowhere to go. Niall McCullagh kept at him all the way to the final furlong, hoping that the gap would appear and when it finally arrived, Bewitched had flown.
The ground will not be an issue here and, if ridden with or behind the pace, he should go very close.
On the other hand, if there is a really strong pace from the off, it could set up the race for Waffle, who must be held up. David Barron's gelding ran the highly progressive Deacon Blues to a neck in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot and a repeat of that form would have to put him on the premises. He's easily forgiven his latest couple of defeats and, at 20-1, is worth a small interest in a typically tricky handicap.
It’s a weekend for light plays in the horse racing action but he and Croisultan are both worth a small each-way bet at big prices.
