Seville can prove a cut above
I didn't believe him a certainty prior to the charade of the past week and with all that has apparently occurred in the interim I remain unimpressed and even less likely to entertain him today. Let's not deny that as a Dante winner he must have a real chance of success but that was an unusual running of the race in which the slow pace might have affected the result.
On that occasion, Carlton House was uncooperative with stall handlers, hard to settle in the race and yet he had the class and speed to come through late to beat the hitherto very strong travelling Seville.
There must be some concern that the ceremony attached to this afternoon's premier classic may inhibit his performance and those of you compelled to side with the royal charge might be best advised to leave it late to place your bets.
Did Christophe Soumillon give runner-up Seville a bad ride in the Dante? Sure, the oft-maligned Belgian rider could have sent Aidan O'Brien's colt for home a lot earlier, thus bringing his stamina into play, but there were mitigating circumstances.
Such was the aplomb with which his mount travelled, Soumillon can be forgiven for thinking the pair would win on the bridle. That just didn't transpire. Also, it was just a Dante and not a Derby and therefore the decision not to give the colt a hard time was understandable.
There was no question of him not trying to obtain the best position but Ballydoyle's decision to dry-run their Derby partnerships could prove prudent as Soumillon is sure to have learned a lot about his mount.
There's no fear of today's race turning into a slowly run, tactical affair and as a horse whose best form screams stamina, Seville should be well served by the Epsom test.
Kieren Fallon is also sure to have garnered plenty from his victory aboard Seville's stable companion, Recital, in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown. The winner looked classy but laden with quirks when disposing of some lesser fancied stablemates and it's not certain how he'll cope with Epsom. I suspect he has the class to overcome his inclinations but he rates a risky proposition.
Coolmore are mob-handed and French raider Pour Moi will carry their colours for trainer Andre Fabre. The colt came from well off the pace to win the Group 2 Prix Greffulhe with something to spare but the bare form of the victory is nothing to shout about.
The runner-up, Bubble Chic, beaten a length and a half that day, was five lengths behind Recital in a Group 1 race at Saint Cloud last November. Much may have happened in the meantime but it's hard to reconcile Pour Moi's form with his current odds and even his place ahead of Recital in the market.
Disappointment will be the overwhelming emotion if Native Khan, Treasure Beach or Memphis Tennessee proves up to the task. Each would appear to have had their limitations exposed at a level below what will be needed this afternoon.
Ocean War and Masked Marvel have a case to be considered potential dark horses, but Vadamar was a massive disappointment when behind Pour Moi last time. Connections of the last named have voiced hope of bridging that gap but that's something that must be taken on trust as there's no evidential reason attached.
All roads lead back to Seville, who is the top-rated horse in today's race. His second place finish in last season's Racing Post Trophy stands out as the best piece of form amongst today's runners and he can improve further for the step up to a mile and a half.
If not spectacular thus far, his form is already solid enough to see him go close but with significant improvement anticipated he can prove himself one of the smartest middle distance horses of his generation and provide Aidan O'Brien with his third Epsom Derby.
