The exchanges: they’re betting’s X-Factor
Therein lies some of the beauty of betting on the exchanges: you can lay the selections you don’t fancy. In basic terms, you're playing the role of bookmaker and offering to allow others back the horse (or other selections) with you.
Of course, there are others features and one that is of most interest today is the Back-to-Lay strategy whereby you back a horse with the intention of laying it off at a shorter price to guarantee profit or to get a 'free bet'. The inherent danger - and there has to be one or it wouldn't be gambling - is that the horse you've backed will not trade at the shorter price you're looking to lay it back at.
There are a couple of potential plays in today's Champion Hurdle and favourite Go Native is a pretty good place to start.
We know from watching previous races that he travels extremely well in his races and that's vitally important to our play.
If, for instance, we back him at current odds of roughly 4-1 (5.0 on the Exchanges) and he does indeed travel like a dream to the bottom of the hill, the chances are that he'll be a short price in-running.
From last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle we also know that he either idles badly on the hill or just does everything on the bridle and doesn't have much left to give when coming under pressure.
That provides reason enough to lay him back in-running before he comes under the cosh and that makes the basis of our play.
Finding the right price at which to lay the selection is the key to success with this strategy. If we seek to lay him at, say, 6-4 (2.5 on the Exchanges) to get back the money we put on him pre-race and it gets matched, we're on a free bet to two and a half points.
We could also lay him at that price to get back more than our original betting stake ensuring that, provided it gets matched, we're on a winner whether he wins or loses. That's what's known in trading as an all-green book.
At those prices, the margins are quite tight for small players and we don't have too far to look for another similar opportunity. Starluck has a strikingly similar style of running to Go Native but is about three times his price. Only a short-head separated the pair in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton back In December and there's every reason to believe that Starluck has plenty of improvement left in him.
Fourth in last year's Triumph Hurdle when fading a little on the hill, he was a winner here at Cheltenham earlier in the year, albeit at a much lower level than Champion Hurdle class. He looks a much stronger horse this year than last and he will travel smartly regardless of the pace. I feel he's been over-looked somewhat for a horse that'll love fast ground and, though he may well be found out when push comes to shove up that hill, he provides another back to lay opportunity.
Champion Hurdle Plays:
Back Go Native to Lay In-Running at 2.5
Back Starluck to Lay In-Running at 6.0
