Neptune Collonges an each-way wager to nothing in Gold Cup
We know that, ordinarily, you wouldn’t mention him in the same breath as his exalted stable companions, Denman and Kauto Star, but this is no ordinary year.
We’ve waffled on long enough about Denman and won’t be having him at any price come March 13. Kauto Star has been given the ideal preparation and will be as fresh as paint, having been rested since storming to yet another King George success at Kempton at Christmas.
But the manner in which he struggled at Cheltenham last year continues to disturb and here’s one who would not want to be with him at tight odds.
Neptune Collonges can be backed at 6-1 at the moment and chances are won’t tighten in price appreciably between now and the Friday of the Festival.
In normal circumstance, he simply wouldn’t be capable of matching strides with the other pair, but there have to be major questions marks against Denman and, to a lesser extent, Kauto Star.
There are no ifs, buts and maybes with Neptune Collonges, what you see is what you get as far as the grey is concerned.
We can be virtually certain he will run his race, although accepting that may ultimately fall a bit short of what’s required.
Neptune Collonges stripped in rude good health at Leopardstown on Sunday and, at only eight years-of-age, has a lot of scope for further improvement.
He jumps, travels, is enthusiastic and courageous. Of course the bare form of beating Notre Pere five lengths still leaves him with plenty to prove.
He will, however, revel in the likely better surface at Cheltenham, compared to Leopardstown, and, to my way of thinking, is an each-way wager to nothing.
The attendance at Leopardstown was down from 14,000 a year ago to 10,000, with the layers holding e1m less.
HRI, apparently, are struggling to get the government to listen, regarding funding, well it is hard to get blood out of a turnip, so it promises to be tough year.
When a massive downturn and a lack of liquidity arrives, however, with it can come opportunity.
Right now the bookmakers are chasing less and less money and many of them are in danger of straining their necks gazing back at Betfair on their computers.
The result is there can be savage value in the betting ring. The Moriarty Chase at Leopardstown, won by Cooldine, was a case in point.
They bet to just 110%, in a contest in which, realistically, only the front three in the betting could win.
There were a number of other races at Leopardstown as well where, you’d imagine, they struggled to balance.
And even when the odds seem stacked in favour of the layers, they can be in big trouble. For instance they bet to a massive 155% in a maiden hurdle at Navan on Monday.
In theory they had a chance, in reality they had none. Twenty nine faced the starter, but it was no exaggeration to say you could safely put a line through 27 of them.
Solstice Knight duly beat fellow 6-4 joint favourite, An Innocent Man, and both horses were even bigger in the morning.
Anyway, back to Leopardstown and Cousin Vinny. If Hurricane Fly has to miss Cheltenham, and Cousin Vinny lines up in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, then that will surely mean Mikael d’Haguenet running in the Ballymore Properties Hurdle.
There’s no doubt Patrick Mullins will retain the ride on Cousin Vinny and, it’s a cliche, but the youngster really will have the hopes of a nation resting on his shoulders for the first race of the Festival.
Cousin Vinny was only doing half-speed when unseating Mullins at the last at Leopardstown and is a magnificent talent.
It’s gas the way plenty of punters reacted when Mullins departed. Immediately forgotten, hopefully temporarily, was the manner in which he has lined their pockets with all those bumper wins through the campaign.
All that mattered was he had deprived many of them of a pay-day and the abuse came thick and fast.
Watch the same faces at Cheltenham leading the celebrations if, ah to hell with it, when Cousin Vinny roars clear from the last, whatever his chosen race. What a great, but fickle, game this is!
