It’s only January 8, but already we can be pretty certain we won’t be winning the Gold Cup, Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Ryanair Chase or World Hurdle at Cheltenham!
We’ve certainly had confirmation that we are unlikely to be carrying off any of the major prizes at Cheltenham come March.
Of course there will be plenty of people saying Cheltenham isn’t everything and that there are lots of goodies on offer between now and then and subsequently at Aintree, Fairyhouse and Punchestown.
But Cheltenham week is going to come flying around the corner, and it really will be the only game in town over the coming weeks.
Anyway, we can be pretty certain that, just like last year, Ireland won’t win the Gold Cup, Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, Ryanair Chase or the Ladbrokes’ World Hurdle.
You would have to harbour deep concerns as well regarding our challenge for both the Arkle Chase and the Triumph Hurdle. We didn’t win any of them last year either.
Gold Cup-wise, we do not have a credible possibility, with War Of Attrition failing by 20 lengths behind Exotic Dancer at Leopardstown.
The Champion Hurdle isn’t entirely a lost cause and we are likely to have a number of runners. But you would have to be an optimist to fancy Harchibald, Won In The Dark, Brave Inca or Catch Me.
Sublimity is a classy horse, who has done it before, and loves good ground. But he could only manage fourth to Katchit last year and his narrow defeat of Won In The Dark at Leopardstown last time seems to leave him with a fair bit to find.
I do wish connections would bite the bullet and send Sizing Europe spinning towards his true vocation, jumping fences.
He has now failed three times in-a-row over hurdles and it’s a waste of time trying to find excuses. The most recent, and compelling, evidence tells us he has no chance of landing a Champion Hurdle.
Our two-mile chasers will be tilting at windmills taking on Master Minded and, even if he was to miss the contest, or be an early casualty, you would still find it hard enough to make a solid case for an Irish candidate.
The likes of Noland, Voy Por Ustedes and Tidal Bay, and others, appear head and shoulders over anything we have in the Ryanair Chase.
And we have little or nothing to offer against Punchestowns and Kasbah Bliss in the World Hurdle.
Let’s leave the Arkle and Triumph Hurdle for another day, but what we can say is if Ireland equals last year’s total of seven winners then that will be an achievement.
We repeatedly hear how the English handicapper is so unfair on Irish horses in England, but just how true is such thinking?
What is true is that Irish horses won three handicaps at the 2008 Festival, so that wasn’t bad. And Jim Dreaper’s Notre Pere recently won the Welsh National at Chepstow with a lot in hand.
Are we without hope at Prestbury Park in March? Of course not, not with Willie Mullins on your side. He has assembled the strongest bunch of novice hurdlers any trainer has had for years and an almost frightening array of bumper talent.
If you knew right now for sure Hurricane Fly was definitely going to line up in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle then you would have to grab all the 6-1 which is available.
He is absolutely the ideal horse for a fast-run two miler - with the ability to stay much further - not to mention a stunning turn of foot. Personally, I will be amazed if this isn’t his race.
Likewise, I will be shocked should Mikael d’Haguenet not have the Ballymore Properties Novice Hurdle firmly in his sights.
I have become a massive fan, fuelled of course by the pocket, but he has to be the most exciting young horse we have seen for quite some time.
Ruby Walsh keeps calling him a “machine’ and that was the word he used again when interviewed on At The Races, in the wake of Mikael d’Haguenet’s facile success at Naas on Sunday.
But the situation is complicated by the fact Mullins also has Cousin Vinny in his care. He came up the Cheltenham hill like a rocket last year to win the bumper, so the place holds no fears for him.
But we are still very much in the dark as to his true ability over flights, because a slowly run Grade 1 at Fairyhouse and victory in a moderate maiden at Leopardstown told us little.
And that brings us to Mullins’ bumper horses. So which one do you like best - Rhyl Accord, Quinola Des Obeaux, Cranky Corner, Quel Esprit, Gagewell Flyer or Quadrillon?
And, who knows, there may well be several others lurking in the wings and just waiting for the right moment to strike!
Ireland’s power then clearly lies with the novice hurdlers and bumper horses. And we have several more useful bumper horses than those in Mullins’ care. After that, it will be a case of hoping for the best and fearing the worst.
But if those Mullins hurdlers stay healthy and hit the heights we expect, then, no matter what else happens, there will be no excuses for anyone failing to make a profit at the most difficult of all meetings for the punter.
