Big Buck’s has the ability to win Hennessy, but his jumping has to be a worry
But hoping to get back in time for Master Minded in the Tingle Creek next Saturday was a bit far-fetched and now realise that’s not going to happen.
I continue to make great progress and, unless going backwards for whatever reason, should return in two weeks or so from today.
Anyway, I’m putting this together as I head to Thurles to watch about thirty of Willie Mullins’ horses working. Between Willie and Paul Nicholls, I obviously have a lot to look forward to, when finally getting the all clear.
The Hennessy at Newbury is, of course, the focus of much attention today and, as you would expect, is wide open. Denman had about 20lbs in hand a year ago, but I think we can say with some certainty there’s no Denman lurking in this field.
I’ve seen bigger numbers taking part and seventeen is rather manageable. If fit and well, then I’d be on Big Buck’s for Paul.
That he has the ability to win, and win well, is beyond doubt. The weights going up means this may well have turned into an ordinary Hennessy.
The major issue, however, with Big Buck’s is his jumping, he just has a tendency to miss out fences. He also tends to go markedly left, so Sam Thomas will have no choice but to head down the inner.
I’ll tell you after five fences, you will know whether he is a live possibility or not. If getting into a nice rhythm, he will go close.
Big Buck’s does take plenty of riding. but if I was aboard I’d look on him as a real challenge.
My three others against the field would by Dear Villez, he’ll jump like a stag and get the trip, Albertas Run and Character Building. The last-named has a lovely weight and will be ridden by the very under-rated Dougie Costello.
Paul has a bucket of other runners at Newbury and here’s what I think about some of them. It won’t surprise me should Predateur run a nice race in the two miles plus handicap chase. I know he tipped up early at Cheltenham last time, but give him another chance, he’s on a reasonably fair mark.
The Grade 2 Long Distance Hurdle is a cracker and Blazing Bailey and Inglis Drever are just about the best around.
But they might be vulnerable on their reappearances and I’m expecting a decent effort from an old friend, Mobaasher.
It took me three or four tries to get the hang of him, but he’s one I really like. I’m not saying he will win, but will beat a lot more than beats him!
And let me pass on good word for Luxurix in the last, a fiercely competitive handicap hurdle. He is having a first run for Paul, having arrived from Paul Webber’s, and the yard are quietly confident.
I feel Punjabi will be too strong for our horses, Harchibald and Sublimity, in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle, if the meeting passes a morning inspection.
He ran a blinder in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham and then came to Punchestown and bolted in. Newbury is round the corner from Nicky Henderson’s and yet himself and Barry Geraghty are making the long trek to Newcastle and that has to be significant.
Willie Mullins sets a real poser by running both Hurricane Fly and Cousin Vinny in the Royal Bond at Fairyhouse tomorrow.
I was at Willie’s last Tuesday morning and watched them work together. It wasn’t a race or anything like that, but they did come up the gallops stride for stride.
Hurricane Fly has experience on his side, will love the ground and is simply a good horse. Cousin Vinny, however, is unbeaten in three bumpers, has class written all over him, has schooled well and gone round in one or two of those schooling hurdles. Let’s just say this is one time I’m glad I didn’t have to make a choice.
I’m inclined to favour Trafford Lad over Tranquil Sea in the Drinmore. Mind you, I was hugely impressed by Tranquil Sea at Cork.
Andrew McNamara was laughing at us at all stages and eventually had no option but to let Tranquil Sea go.
I must confess I didn’t see Trafford Lad winning the last day, but I rode him prior to that at Punchestown and think when it comes to bottle and guts he might be the most willing.
I’d say whatever finishes in front of Hardy Eustace will win the Hatton’s Grace. He’s wonderful and beat two really good horses in Sizing Europe and Jered at Punchestown last time.
I loved the way Gordon Elliott’s Tharawaat went about his business at Navan last Saturday and he’s the one to be on in the three-year-old hurdle.
I’ll be looking for a serious run from Pomme Tiepy in a conditions hurdle at Fairyhouse today. I rode her over fences at Clonmel and she got tired. She is bound to come on a bundle and this does look an ideal opportunity.
