No beating the handicapper
Handicappers, by definition, are experts at what they do and trying to beat them, because that’s what you are attempting when betting in that type of race, is usually a thankless task.
Essentially, there are far more intelligent ways of getting a few quid at this game than staying up half the night trying to discover where a particular handicapper might have got it wrong. But I will always make an exception for the Irish Grand National, which takes place on next Monday week at Fairyhouse.
Such thinking, of course, is completely coloured by the odd decent pay-day in the past, not least Point Barrow a year ago.
This week the weights were released and the scanning process was immediately begun. What you want to happen is for a little beastie to, literally, jump up off the page and scream: “I'm the one.”'
Sadly, it didn't happen. Are we discouraged, well bloody sure we are. All, however, is far from lost and as we get closer to the race then, hopefully, the picture will become clearer. Tom Taaffe has indicated top weight Cane Brake (12-0) will run and that’s a help. Fifth to Kauto Star in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, I doubt he will be on too many short-lists as a possible winner!
Two of Willie Mullins’ who quickly caught the eye were Snowy Morning (10-12) and Homer Wells (10-11).
Snowy Morning ran the race of his young life when runner-up to Denman at Cheltenham, but maybe the Powers' Gold Cup at Fairyhouse, over two and a half miles, nine furlongs short of the National trip, could be his Easter target. Homer Wells will arrive in good shape, seeking a hat-trick.
Snowy Morning is a novice and two others who are of interest are Gazza's Girl (10-1) and One Cool Cookie (9-13). Gazza's Girl was fifth to Denman at Cheltenham, while One Cool Cookie loves to go right-handed.
If Taaffe does come down on the side of allowing Cane Brake take his chance then his other possibility, Kings Advocate (10-0), would have a real life. I thought the seven-year-old would do really well at Cheltenham and was a bit disappointed he could only manage sixth behind L’Antartique in the Jewson Handicap ’Chase. He actually didn't perform badly, though, and the extra mile of the National could just be what's required!
* A PUNTER said to me the other day that, in future, he is going to confine all his betting in the offices to the Paddy Power organisation.
It's almost understandable, in the light of the firm’s reaction to that maiden hurdle at Clonmel a week ago when Slash And Burn and rider, David Casey, decided to go their separate ways at the start. Paddy Power soon led the way and decided to refund anyone who had backed Slash And Burn, a big morning-price gamble and hot favourite. They claimed the gesture cost them €50,000.
Whatever it cost, it was a magnificent response. It is one thing to be refunded when you know the rules before you lodge the wager, but to get the dosh back totally unexpectedly is just delightful.
It came on the heels of their decision to refund those who backed Exotic Dancer when he finished second to Kauto Star in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
I know cynics will say these are just PR stunts, used to get yet more publicity for Paddy Power.
But if you backed Exotic Dancer or Slash And Burn do you really give a monkey's about that?
* IN a National Hunt season, again, when the number of fixtures was utterly inadequate and when three meetings were lost at Clonmel and one each at Tramore and Leopardstown, the stuff on offer at Thurles today and at Limerick on Saturday makes painful reading.
I know the fixture list is planned miles ahead and the flat has to progress somewhere, but to see three races on the level at Thurles at this time of the year borders on sacrilege.
What about poor old Limerick on Saturday? It's a track which has served National Hunt people well this campaign, getting through all four days of the Christmas meeting, and plenty others as well, in testing conditions.
Yet on Saturday, now widely recognised as a day most courses don't want to race, they have foisted upon them seven flat contests. Don't give me any old guff about Sunday at Limerick being all National Hunt, so what. You can say with certainty that the enclosures come Saturday will be well nigh empty. Imagine, an industry meeting for the flat in March!
