Inca and McCoy the real deal
You would have to say the 7-1 currently available is pretty good value about Colm Murphy's gelding, given we know he loves a fight and that the final fearsome Cheltenham hill has never been a problem for him in the past. When bookmakers price races they take everything into consideration. But, at the same time, you’d have to wonder if the fact Barry Cash won't be aboard has been factored in.
No disrespect to Cash, but, like the vast majority of his colleagues, he is simply not in the Tony McCoy league. McCoy has now partnered Brave Inca twice and has shown exactly the correct way to ride him. As a consequence, Brave Inca has produced two wonderfully dramatic performances.
It was always virtually certain Cash was going to get jocked off at some stage. It’s not that he ever did anything which was particularly wrong on the horse. But guys like Cash are always under pressure on such high-profile rides. They normally get the nod early in a horse's career and, literally, come up with him.
They are, however, usually just one cock-up away from being abandoned. Racing is littered with so-called lesser pilots being substituted by more highly-rated riders as a horse improves and begins to become a candidate for the major prizes.
In Cash's case the parting of the ways with Brave Inca came at the Grand National meeting at Aintree in April. Brave Inca started 2-1 favourite for a Grade One and was bombing when falling at the third last. Cash's fate was then, basically, sealed and, of course, McCoy was in the plate when the seven-year-old subsequently beat Harchibald at the Punchestown Festival.
Anyway, if Cash was still Brave Inca’s jockey would the horse be any longer for the Champion Hurdle? Maybe a little, but not much!
After all, Brave Inca was only beaten a neck and the same into third at Cheltenham behind Hardy Eustace and Harchibald.
Could McCoy have made the difference?
Well, we know for a fact he did make the difference at Punchestown afterwards when Brave Inca beat Harchibald by a head.
That's not a massive difference, I can hear you say. Oh yes it is, it's the difference between first prize and something minor, the difference between walking towards your bookmaker, instead of away from him.
Of course the hat-trick seeking Hardy Eustace is going to take an awful lot of beating. We are not, though, likely to see him until the New Year and know he has only a little in hand of Brave Inca.
I just don't think that, in some lists, he is entitled to be two points shorter. Perhaps, the layers have decided there is a strong possibility McCoy won’t ride Brave Inca at Cheltenham and will be claimed for Lingo.
That being the case here's one who wouldn't be surprised if Colm Murphy moved to book Ruby Walsh. Paul Nicholls doesn't appear to have any Champion Hurdle candidate, neither does Willie Mullins, and I cannot picture Essex, which Walsh rode to finish second to Brave Inca on Sunday, winning the Champion Hurdle. If Essex couldn't beat Brave Inca then, he never will!
LOVED that performance by Alexander Taipan at Punchestown, although we mustn't get carried away by a horse who has just won a maiden hurdle.
Neverthless, it was a big step up on his second to the exposed and moderate Coaltion at Down Royal.
When we were at Mullins’ Carlow base last week, you certainly got the impression this was a horse connections held in very high regard indeed.
His jumping was sticky enough in the early stages, but when Ruby Walsh pulled him out for more light Alexander Taipan's technique noticeably improved.
Justified was super in his routing of Wild Passion. The zest with which he attacked his fences was mighty impressive.
It would silly, though, to go backing him for the Arkle at Cheltenham, at least at the moment. He adores testing conditions and we know it is unlikely the ground will be soft come March.
What we have to do in the meantime is keep backing him here at home, until we know better. Cheltenham will arrive soon enough and can take care of itself.
Finally a word about Davy Russell and that display he gave on Laetitia at Cork on Saturday, when the mare upset odds-on Mossbank.
It was a beautifully executed performance from way off the pace and if Russell has ridden a better race then I’d like to see the tape!
