Nicanor represents serious value at 20/1
There is no doubt Black Jack Ketchum is a cracking good horse, but is he entitled to be as much as a whopping 14 points shorter than Nicanor?
Ladbrokes appear to be biggest with Black Jack Ketchum, at 6-1, and VC bet have Nicanor at 20’s. Some have the market-leader a good bit lower, 4-1, while Nicanor is generally a 16-1 shot.
A simple line of form through Powerstation tells you such a disparity is clearly wrong and that Nicanor is serious value.
At Cheltenham last month, Black Jack Kethcum gave Powerstation 5lbs and a two and a half lengths beating.
At Navan on Sunday, when Nicanor was beaten a neck by Travino, he had Powerstation (levels) nine and a half lengths behind in fourth spot.
Even if you accept Powerstation performed below his best, you can still make a solid enough case that Nicanor is not far behind Black Jack Ketchum.
Nicanor has a huge amount of scope for improvement, he will only be five come January 1, and is, arguably, the most promising young horse in the country.
The problem with him, though, is that he still has to learn to jump. In all three of his hurdle races so far his technique has left plenty to be desired.
He was galloping all over Travino heading to the second last at Navan, but guessed at the obstacle and his chance seemed to be gone.
But the way he rallied was tremendously encouraging and he was closing the winner down, who is a powerful horse, all the way to the line.
Unless Nicanor’s jumping improves, of course, he will have as much chance at Cheltenham as I have of making the next Irish team for the Olympics!
But at 16-1, or even 20-1, it’s worth risking that he will get it right, sooner rather than later.
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WHEN the dust settles on Leopardstown a week today, we will all have a far better idea as to how many realistic Cheltenham possibilities are residing in the old country.
Such is the competitive nature of Leopardstown, there won’t be many odds-on chances next week, but Dusty Sheehy’s Justified will surely be tighter than evens in Monday’s Durkan New Homes Novice Chase.
He looked a natural over fences first time up at Punchestown in October and was even better when slamming Wild Passion by 14 lengths when returning to that track the following month.
On Tuesday, Moscow Flyer will be the centre of attention when attempting to get his campaign back on track in the Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase.
Defeats by Rathgar Beau at Punchestown last April, by Central House at Navan on his reappearance and the fact he will be officially a 12-year-old very shortly have removed any feeling Moscow Flyer is virtually unbeatable.
His travels in the market will be well worth noting.
Paddy Power were offering Beef Or Salmon at 4-7 this week, for Wednesday’s Lexus Chase, but I cannot picture anyone wanting to take such odds.
Yes, he was quite good at Haydock last month when a length and a quarter runner-up to Kingscliff.
But his dreadful effort in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and a 14 lengths thrashing by Rule Supreme in the Hennessy at Leopardstown in February are just too fresh in the memory to feel comfortable taking a short price.
And that comment is made with the full knowledge that Beef Or Salmon may not have a great deal to beat.
Certainly, War Of Attrition will come to the contest under a major cloud, having performed deplorably in the John Durkan at Punchestown last time when practically pulled up behind Hi Cloy.
It may be worth recalling, however, that when War Of Attrition produced a career-best effort, neck second to Brave Inca in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham last year, he went to that contest on the back of actually pulling up in his previous race at Naas.
Aintree Grand National hero Hedgehunter is an interesting runner. Right now he is rated 3lbs a better horse than War Of Attrition and is only 10lbs below Beef Or Salmon.
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ANYONE know why we aren’t racing in Ireland today and how the industry can literally shut down for a whole week? It seems crazy, particularly, given the favourable weather for a while now, that just about every course in Ireland must be raceable at the moment.
