Ante-post betting vagaries are once again highlighted
Because of the well-documented skirmish between Ballydoyle and the Racing Post, there was a virtual news blackout at Ballydoyle and we have all spent the last couple of days guessing as to what Aidan O’Brien’s intentions might be.
As a result, Cashmans obviously felt the proper way to price the 2000 Guineas was to lump the O’Brien possibilities together. The upshoot was that the 4-1 looked serious value.
It meant you had Catcher In The Rye, and all other Ballydoyle runners, at those odds. Well, at least that was the theory.
The problem with it, of course, was that we simply had no clue as to the way O’Brien was leaning. That all changed after the last race at Leopardstown last night.
O’Brien saddled Mingun to land that contest, 6-4 to 11-10, and then broke his self-imposed silence in the winner’s enclosure.
He spoke openly to those reporters present, indicating that Catcher In The Rye was "unlikely” to face the starter on Saturday. We will know, of course, exactly what Ballydoyle intends running this morning, with declarations having to be made 48 hours prior to the race.
Those who availed of Cashmans 4-1 offer about all of the O’Brien horses must have been on good terms with themselves. Chances are, however, that is now about as valuable as an ante-post bet on Tottenham to win next season’s Premiership. Yeah, yeah, I know that’s an exaggeration. But isn’t ante-post betting, more than any other type of wagering, all about taking a chance? Of course it is.
Anyway, the 4-1 disappeared yesterday morning, to be replaced by 3-1. Said Paul Cashman: "We took various bets amounting to 5,000. I defy you to to find a man we didn’t lay to whatever he wanted.”
The final make-up of the Ballydoyle challenge, and which one Kinane rides, will be mighty interesting.
Apparently, Tomahawk was emerging as favourite last night. Equally intriguing will be the performances of those who finished behind Refuse To Bend in the English 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. Zafeen, second, Tout Seul, fourth, and several others who were down the field all promise to face the starter.
Dermot Weld, one suspects, will be giving those horses more than just a passing glance!
Six Perfections will be hard to oppose in Sunday’s 1000 Guineas. You would think she might be vulnerable if the ground was to ride soft.
But a glance through the Form Book reveals that cut in the surface shouldn’t present her with any great problem.
Last year, for instance, on ground described as "very soft”, she won by six lengths at Deauville.
As well as that the Curragh management were at pains to stress yesterday that the going at the Curragh is nowhere near as bad as some publications would have you believe.
Manager, Paul Hensey, walked the track in the morning and described it as yielding on the round course and yielding to soft on the straight course. Hensey said he would be disappointed if it rode any worse than those descriptions come the weekend.
Meanwhile Aidan O’Brien, bidding to make history by becoming the first trainer of three consecutive winners of the Vodafone Derby, has left in seven horses at yesterday’s forfeit stage for the premier Classic at Epsom headed by Racing Post Trophy winner Brian Boru. His six others among 31 acceptors are Alberto Giacometti, Balestrini, Handel, Hold That Tiger, Solskjaer and The Great Gatsby.
He has, however, taken out Catcher In The Rye.
The other Irish entries are headed by Sagitta 2000 Guineas winner Refuse To Bend. The unbeaten Sadler’s Wells colt bids to become the first since Nashwan in 1989 to win both Classics and only the third since Nijinsky in 1970.
Refuse To Bend could be joined on June 7 by his stable companion Multazem, an impressive winner of a maiden race at the Curragh on his only start last month.
The strong Irish hand is boosted further by the presence of the John Oxx-trained Alamshar.
Godolphin have four possibles, including Lateen Sails, who landed the Listed Michael Seely Memorial Glasgow Stakes at York on his latest appearance.
Dalakhani is the one remaining entry from France. The unbeaten half-brother to Daylami has won all of his five starts to date, most recently taking the Group One Prix Lupin at Longchamp on May 11. But he is more likely to go for the French equivalent, the Prix du Jockey-Club.
There are some huge punters in the ring at the moment and when they think they know something, and believe have a genuine edge, they can’t half go to war.
Two recent races are well worth recording. Take the juvenile event won by Newton at Fairyhouse on Saturday, May 10. Not too many patrons turned up that day and the second biggest betting race saw the layers hold 55,000 in the maiden won by Time Discloses All. But Newton’s contest attracted almost 100,000.
An even better example was Handel’s success in a Leopardstown maiden the following day. This was something else.
Second biggest betting race that day was the 139,000 in Alamshar’s Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial. But that paled into insignificance compared to the almost 246,000 bet in Handel’s contest!
Tipperary, whose meeting today was cancelled due to adverse weather conditions, have been granted a replacement National Hunt Fixture on Tuesday June 24. Entries for this meeting will close by 12 noon on Wednesday June 18, with scratchings by 10.am on Saturday June 21, and declarations to run to be made by 10.am on Monday June 23.
