Seánie McGrath: What forward will go beyond to take Cork past the champions?

Patrick Horgan hits a free against Limerick in the 2021 All-Ireland final

I’ve been number crunching. Totting tallies and trying to figure out what it all means. Here’s what we know heading up the road this Sunday.

Our focus, throwing in, is scoring totals from play. Placed-ball accumulations are not in consideration here. We’re looking exclusively at what the Cork and Limerick forwards have managed amid the heat and hostility of opposition defences.

Cork to begin with. Patrick Horgan is averaging exactly 0-3 per game across the county’s six championship outings. Seamus Harnedy, having featured in a game less, boasts the same figure. Alan Connolly and Shane Barrett are a fraction above that 0-3 average. Brian Hayes and Declan Dalton, meanwhile, are hovering a click above 1.5.

Add it all together and you get an average of 0-15 from play per game.

Now, let’s leave that there and go look at Limerick.

Seamus Flanagan’s 3-3 against Cork, allied to the fact that he sat out two of their four other Munster fixtures because of injury, lifts the full-forward’s average to 0-4 per outing.

Falling in behind are Gearóid Hegarty at just under 0-3 per provincial outing, Tom Morrissey is just under the 2.5 mark, while Cathal O’Neill is just above the 0-2 mark. Aaron Gillane and David Reidy, meanwhile, are averaging slightly less than 0-2 per 70-plus minutes of hurling.

Add it all together and you get an average of 0-15 from play per game.

0-15 for Limerick versus 0-15 for Cork. No separation to be found there.

Maybe some daylight can be established by factoring in bench totals. Cork surely have the edge in this department. Shane Kingston, after all, has provided 0-7 coming in, Robbie O’Flynn 1-3.

Again, though, no separation. Adam English has matched Kingston’s 0-7, while Donnacha Ó Dalaigh’s 1-2 almost similarly eradicates O’Flynn’s 1-3.

The scoring form lines from the first-team regulars and the back-up cast are almost identical. Consistency and a continuation so of what has been churned out up to this point is unlikely to be enough.

Someone somewhere needs to rise above their average. Someone needs to go ballistic and catch fire. The evidence to hand would suggest it will be a forward in green rather than in red.

The two previous Croke Park clashes we have to work off are the 2021 decider and 2018 semi-final. In both games, Patrick Horgan clipped a pair from play, very much in keeping with what he has been contributing this summer. Three years ago, Seamus Harnedy threw over four white flags, slightly above what he’s been contributing this campaign.

Cork’s Seamus Harnedy signals for a point

No Cork forward went beyond, though. No Cork forward came close to deciding proceedings by the amount of black pen strokes beside their name. For Limerick, there was a queue of performers ticking that box.

Aaron Gillane’s 1-3 from play in the 21 final is several times greater than what he’s been racking up during this frustrated campaign of his. Gearóid Hegarty brought the house down with 2-2. Cian Lynch, a man who hasn’t managed more than a single point in any championship fixture this year, registered six. They all went beyond.

Cork, on Sunday, require someone stepping out of the pack and posting 2-2. The goal merchants need to get going again after recent blanks.

Or could the difference be midfielder Darragh Fitzgibbon lifting his already impressive 0-3 average to 0-5 or 0-6? No other county is getting as much on the scoreboard from midfield as Cork are from the Charleville man.

Fitzgibbon’s semi-final partner is a selection headache for Pat Ryan. I’d put a grafter in there. There’s enough magic in Fitzgibbon’s wrists that the other half of the pairing can concern themselves with nullifying back-to-his-aggressive-best Will O’Donoghue.

I haven’t forgotten about the respective defences. The Cork full-back line is about to be put back under the microscope. My fear is that Gillane, below par to date, will spark to life exactly when John Kiely requires him to do so. Seán O’Donoghue held the hurler of the year scoreless in mid-May. Can he manage that feat twice in the one summer?

Cork have conceded 12 goals in championship. Three of those belong to Flanagan. I’d be worried about his return this weekend. It is a match-up Cork must get spot on.

Along with Gillane, the other Limerick headline act that hasn’t been belting out the classics in recent games is Lynch. I’ve heard arguments not to start him and instead roll him off the bench. I disagree every time.

How many times have we seen Cian conduct affairs above in Croker at this time of year. It is Cian’s playmaking ability that can ignite and facilitate a late summer resurgence from his Patrickswell clubmate.

I’d prefer not to see our full-back line get involved in shorts restarts. I’m not a fan of short restarts full stop. Our defenders are more comfortable and effective when they are defending rather than attempting to work possessions out though the lines.

Cork got fierce joy from their long puck-out in the round-robin game against the champions. 3-12 was a monstrous return. But with Paul Kinnerk in the green corner, you just know Limerick will come with a plan to counter the puck-out success their opponents enjoyed last time out.

I can see Brian Hayes drifting out to the half-forward line and a bank of four red shirts offering themselves as moving targets across that line. Against that, though, Declan Hannon and Diarmaid Byrnes, so off-colour during the provincial clash and so exposed off the Cork restart, have since edged closer and closer to their old authoritative selves.

If the Limerick half-forward line retreat for Collins’ puck-outs, it might allow the Cork No.1 to find an unmarked Mark Coleman or Rob Downey along our own 45 and then transfer possession over the top and straight inside to Hoggie and Connolly.

Nicky English recently posed the question as to whether Limerick were in a training phase when Cork turned them over at Páirc Uí Chaoimh. No question but there was a legginess to their efforts that glorious night. The four-week break will have served them perfectly.

We’ve crunched the numbers and totted the tallies. Here’s our conclusion: Every Cork player must hit the markers they’ve been hitting up to now. All scoring averages must at least be equaled. And then it will be a case of can one or two forwards go beyond to take Cork beyond the champions.