Christy O’Connor talking points: Can the third-placed teams finally move up the grid?
CENTRE OF ATTENTION: Cork's Patrick Horgan signs autographs after the game. Pic: INPHO/INPHO/Laszlo Geczo
In the brutal arena of knockout championship, the underdog is often at the mercy of being brutalised by the bigger dog, eaten alive before even getting out of the kennel. When Tipperary met Offaly in last year’s preliminary All-Ireland quarter-final in Tullamore, their bite was so deep and vicious that Offaly were disfigured from the bleeding.
After capitulating so badly in their last round-robin game against Waterford last May, Tipp were snarling and growling from the first ball. Their final tally of 59 points was the highest since Wexford blasted Antrim for 12-17 (53) in the 1954 All-Ireland semi-final. Offaly weren’t in Tipp’s league but Tipp were so slick and ruthless that they looked primed for a shot at Galway in the All-Ireland quarter-final seven days later.
And then, Tipp looked anything but what they appeared against Offaly. They were a shell of the team that had drawn with Limerick five weeks earlier. Much of that was bound up in Tipp’s preparations, especially around their physical conditioning and how they had been leaking gas since the last round in Munster. But their collapse was also in tandem with the fortunes of the third-placed teams in the All-Ireland quarter-finals across the history of the round-robin championships.
Earlier that afternoon, in the curtain-raiser, Dublin lost to Clare in the other quarter-final by 18 points. It was the biggest losing margin in an All-Ireland quarter-final since the introduction of the new system, and another hugely disappointing outcome for Dublin when qualifying as the third-placed team in the province. A month after defeating Galway on an epic night in Parnell Park in May 2019, Dublin lost their preliminary All-Ireland quarter-final to Laois.
Since the introduction of the round-robin, the third-placed team in Munster and Leinster has won just one game (out of eight) at the All-Ireland quarter-final stage. Limerick’s victory against Kilkenny in 2018 was a springboard to launch their modern crusade. But for every other side that has qualified in third, that quarter-final has been a walk off the plank and into the deep water below.
At face value, the fall-off shouldn’t be that dramatic. In the four previous seasons (2018, 2019, 2022 and 2023) the average margin on the final points table between the second and third-placed teams in Munster and Leinster was just one point.
In 2019, Dublin ended up on the same points as the two teams which finished above them on the table – Kilkenny and Wexford. In that same 2019 season, Cork and Limerick finished on the same number of points in Munster but Limerick finished second on scoring difference because Clare also ended up on four points. Otherwise, Cork would have finished second as they’d already beaten Limerick in Munster.
It was a similar scenario in Leinster in 2022 when Kilkenny, Wexford and Dublin all finished on six points but Kilkenny finished second ahead of Wexford on points difference.
Wexford almost defied the odds when running Clare close in that year’s All-Ireland quarter-final. Clare were vulnerable after the epic extra-time Munster final 13 days earlier took so much out of them. But in all the other quarter-finals, the beaten provincial finalists have had it much easier than expected.
Technically, the third team should have an advantage. As well as being able to rest up and reset, and not have to deal the pressure of a provincial final – and the fall-out of losing – they have, or should have, a convenient warm-up game in the preliminary All-Ireland quarter-final.
And still they haven’t found that balance. Outside of Laois, who performed well in the 2019 quarter-final (but not as the third-placed team), five of the other six teams (with the exception of Wexford in 2022) have completely underperformed.
Is that down to having gone off the boil after consistency bubbling in the round robin? Have teams peaked too early? Has the long break before the quarter-final arrested a team’s ability to get back up to that level again?
Cork are favourites again on Saturday against Dublin but they’ll be wary because they don’t have a good history in this situation. Outside of Patrick Horgan (3-10) and Alan Cadogan (0-4), the rest of the Cork side managed just 0-4 against Kilkenny in the 2019 All-Ireland quarter-final. In 2022, Cork never recovered from conceding an early goal against Galway.
Wexford have also lost their two previous All-Ireland quarter-finals as the third-placed team, in 2018 and 2022, both against Clare, which feeds into a wider issue for them. Wexford’s success rate against Munster teams in the championship over the last 10 years is just 17%. Outside of their preliminary All-Ireland quarter-final win against Kerry two years ago, Wexford haven’t beaten a Munster team in the championship in their last eight attempts.
It was fairy-tale stuff from Fermanagh. And a nightmare for Derry. Having gone into the 2008 championship as league champions, after beating Kerry in the final, Derry looked set to build on that promise when taking out Donegal in Ballybofey in the Ulster quarter-final.
Fermanagh were already building up to be a silent and dangerous force that summer, having beaten a highly-rated Monaghan side – that had almost won the previous year’s Ulster title – in the quarter-final, but Derry were still expected to avert that danger. They didn’t. Fermanagh beat them to secure a first provincial final appearance since 1982.
Sixteen years on from that 2008 season, Derry seemed in a much better place at the outset of this championship as league champions, a status Derry didn’t have back then because they hadn’t backed it up like this side had in Ulster. Derry hadn’t got past the Ulster semi-final in the three previous years, between 2005-’07, underperforming in two of those games.
This year has been a major let-down but it has also copper-fastened the trend of how Derry have always struggled to back up the expectation when they enter the championship as league champions.
When winning the league was deemed to be a health-hazard towards championship aspirations in the 1990s, Derry were the poster boys for that warning; they won the league title four times between 1992-2000 but never matched that promise in the championship.
They did reach Ulster finals in 1992 and 2000, narrowly losing to excellent Donegal and Armagh sides, while they were edged out in a bitter and fractious semi-final by Tyrone in 1995. The following season, after Derry had won successive league titles, Tyrone blitzed them in the 1996 Ulster semi-final.
Ulster was a minefield back then, loaded with teams with the capacity to win All-Irelands but this season has still been another let-down – so far anyway – for Derry as league champions. When Derry won their first league title in 1947, they were well beaten in their first game in Ulster by a Down team that was subsequently hammered by Antrim in the semi-final.
Derry have already lost three games in this championship but they are still alive. And if they beat Mayo on Saturday, they will become the first Derry team to play championship in Croke Park as league champions.
On ‘Off the Ball’ during the week, Andy Moran spoke about the reality check of managing a team in Division 4 and the Tailteann Cup compared to the privileged position of having always played in Division 1 and consistently competing at the business end of the championship.
Managing Leitrim gave Moran a much greater appreciation of how hard teams have to work just to get on the ladder, never mind move up the ladder, but he also acknowledged the importance of the Tailteann Cup in helping teams climb up that ladder.
“Sligo ran Galway to one point in the Connacht semi-final, Down ran Armagh to one point in Ulster,” said Moran. “Without the last two years of the Tailteann Cup, that would never have happened. They wouldn’t have been able to get to year 3 and get that close to an Armagh or a Galway. They couldn’t get there.” There is merit in Moran’s argument. Sligo reached the Tailteann Cup semi-final in 2022, losing to Cavan by three points, which was the springboard for them to make their way into the Sam Maguire last year via - an albeit easier pathway to – a Connacht final. Sligo are back again in Sunday’s semi-final.
After showing no interest in the Tailteann Cup in 2022, Down have adopted a completely different approach under Conor Laverty. After reaching last year’s final, Down are favourites now to win the title.
Yet they have to go through Sligo first. And, similar to Down, Sligo have had plenty of experience of playing on big days in the last couple of years.
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