Final verdict: Who's going to win and how do Dublin stop Clifford?
FINAL COUNTDOWN: James Horan and OisĂn McConville at the Irish Examiner Gaelic football Show live from The Great Southern Hotel in Killarney this week. Picture: Eddie O'Hare
Iâm changing my mind regularly. I expect Kerry to improve from having gotten over Derry and they might just set a new pace that we havenât seen but at the moment Iâm leaning towards Dublin on the basis that they have more proven options coming from the bench.
Time for an out-and-out double-marking job? It could force Clifford to come deeper to get on ball. On the flip side, it would also make it more difficult to get pressure on deliveries. Kerry will want to free up Tadhg Morley, so that could give Dublin the chance to move some pieces around and play two on him. Most likely they will trust Fitzsimons to do the best he can, accept that it wonât be perfect, and aim to avoid any major pain.
The more we all hope for a classic, the greater the potential for this to be a let-down. It could be good enough to make many people forget the frustrations of previous weeks, but who would really be surprised if it ends up a tense battle with neither side wanting to over commit rather than an open classic? Either way, the final shouldnât decide how the season as a whole or the state of the game is viewed.
When either side presses and force it long, Dublin look better in the air but Kerry are better when they can get it to ground. If Dublin really go after the break zone thereâs joy there for them. Kerry have mastered a bunch & break from the 45m line and nobody has been able to disrupt it so far.
Jason Foley looks the most athletically compatible. Shane McGuiganâs movement caused him some trouble but Con is more direct which might suit him.
David Clifford because he has appeared unmarkable and brings a spark to the sport. I can never remember so much talk about how to stop one player before an All Ireland final.
Colm OâCallaghan of Cork really impressed me. Looks to now be one of the real leaders in the group.
Kerry. In a game of razor-sharp margins, they have the best player in the country and a supporting cast determined to prove they are more than a one-man team. Paudie Cliffordâs performance in the second half of last yearâs semi-final was sensational. He is primed to catch fire once again.
They donât. Nobody can. The expectation of Michael Fitzsimons is to contain him with assistance from his half-back line. Brian Howard or Lee Gannon will likely drop off and occupy the pocket on the left that Clifford loves.
It is past the point of rescue. There is no denying it was a poor championship, an epic finale canât amend that. Instead, we can only hope it serves as an illustration. Both sides reached the decider with a balance between front-foot football and defensive solidity. Other contenders can do similar and need to if they hope to make the same stage in 2024.
A game like this isnât about Stephen Cluxton vs Shane Ryan. Both typically favour short kickouts, which means the winning and losing of the tie comes with what happens after. Can Kerry force a turnover or pressurize Dublin to take low-percentage shots? If not, they wonât win.
Tom OâSullivan. He is capable of operating in either line and has done well on him previously. A man motivated to make up for last yearâs All-Ireland final as well, when Shane Walshâs magnificence denied him an All-Star.
David Clifford. After what could be considered a slow start with no score from play in the Munster semi-final, he came to the fore under intense pressure. 5-39 is a remarkable total. Only 2-10 of that came in a weak provincial championship.
Derryâs disappointment at falling short in the semi-final was obvious but a cause for optimism comes with the display of young star Eoghan McEvoy. His towering performances at full-back allowed Brendan Rogers to move out to midfield.
Kerry. They are a coming team and the genuine belief generated from last year's win should not be underestimated. The only nagging doubt is the superior strength of Dublinâs bench, which has nearly always got them over the line in the past.
Iâm glad I donât have to! Deny him possession. Once David gets the ball in hand it is game over. His size and pace, his dexterity, the length of his limbs, his skill levels and his unmatched mentality ensures he is a unique and unenviable detail.
We could certainly do with one. I have been fortunate enough to have been at most of the better games but rules changes are required to improve the spectacle. Inertia isnât and wonât work.
It will be even. Both Shane Ryan and Stephen Cluxton are excellent. If one side manages to get a squeeze on the others restarts for any period of the game, even for three kickouts in a row it could decide the match.
Jason Foley. I think Tom OâSullivan will pick up Cormac Costello. Those roles could also be reversed, though.
David Clifford. He continues to consistently perform at an incredibly high standard. The harder the battle and the more he is needed the more he delivers.
Derryâs Conor McCluskey. While he was good last year his levels of performance this year were consistently excellent. Honourable mentions to David McBrien from Mayo and Conor Carroll and Ben O'Carroll from Roscommon.
Dublin - they have multiple options that are a threat. Jack McCaffrey, Ciaran Kilkenny to come in, Colm Basquel also may not start. Also, they have a desire to reclaim the throne, a common cause, spearheaded by the amazing James McCarthy.
Mick Fitzsimons to man-mark his goal side, looking just to slow him down, allowing for the double team to arrive. Either James McCarthy or Brian Howard will look to fill this role depending on the type of opposition attack. If it is a slow attack, McCarthy will drift into position, if fast, it might be the nearest man to support Fitzsimons. The Dublin defender must accept that positionally he will need to be conservative.
A classic would be great. And welcome. The season has been slow, the semis were decent but even a shoot-out will not mean all is good with football. Too conservative, too risk averse, too tentative, lack of excitement and skill, and not physical enough.
Kerry will allow Dublin possession on their kickouts, choosing to meet them at the 45. This allows Kerry the defensive structure Jack O'Connor requires (after learnings from the Mayo game). Dublin will try to press and force Kerry kick outs long, feeling they will win the aerial battle with Howard and Fenton.
Jason Foley. He has been strong and is fast and will stay with Con. I actually think O'Callaghan will be deployed at 11, giving him the scope to turn and take on. Expect a royal battle here.
David Clifford - sustained brilliance in every aspect of the game. Technical, decision-making, aerial, accuracy, leadership, humility. Anything else?Â
Eoin McEvoy (Derry) - Looked at ease all through the championship. Showed serious leadership qualities for a young player in big moments in games.
Dublin have a better bench, and more scoring options. Kerry have David Clifford and a better age profile. Success for Kerry may come down to how they perform without the ball and track Dublin movement - like Mayo in Killarney or the first half of the semi-final and they will get ravaged. Paudie Clifford, Sean O'Shea and Paul Geaney must go really well. If so, Kerry by one. If not, Dubs by three.Â
The facile answer is stick Mick Fitzsimons tight and get a plus one to sit around the 10-13 side of Kerry's attack. Clifford's shot map this season suggests he'll just move the carnival elsewhere. A Dublin player told me after 2019 that they were just 'plain afraid' of Clifford. Others may profit from the forensic attention on him.
Here's irony. A poor championship and a flawed structure has still produced the best two teams and, in all likelihood, a white-knuckle Sunday at the end of July. However, one seventy minutes cannot and should not have to salvage the summer. If the format is flawed, that has nothing on the horrible handbrake tactics of most contestants.Â
Cluxton is better proven for sure under the duress of a full, or three-quarter, court press. It's the one area Kerry may miss Adrian Spillane's physicality. It's the ultimate test for Shane Ryan - basically away to Dublin's full house. If he finds green and gold jerseys, Kerry may be on their way.
Either Jason Foley or Tadhg Morley, because O'Callaghan is a straight-line running beast. Both Kerry defenders are able to man the 3 or 6 slot. The other may end up with Ciaran Kilkenny for company. They're critical match-ups.
Before and after, David Clifford. There just doesn't seem to be off-days or a cold spell. And he knows each and every time that the opposition's set-up is geared around frustrating him. He's 24. What mentality. As Oisin McConville said this week, we've never seen anything like this fella.
Has to be a Derry player really but honourable mentions for Dublin's Lee Gannon and Mayo pair Sam Callinan and David McBrien. But Brendan Rogers has the cut of a lad who could be bending games to his will for a few years to come - more likely at midfield. Whether he's 'breakout' is debatable.
Kerry. Belief from last year cannot be underestimated - both the semi-final and the final. It helped them over the line against Derry. Also their defensive stability has improved, despite the blip in Killarney aganst Mayo - that may actually have helped in the long run. Plus of course David Clifford.
Realistically, they can't 'stop' him. They can try to minimise his impact and deny ball, at source, going in as easy as it did against Derry, when a defender like Chrissy McKaigue was left really exposed. If Clifford gets his hand on ball, most of the damage is done.
Even a great game canât properly rescue the championship this year. There have been sporadic moments where itâs been very good, but the overall look hasnât been great. On these pages, Ăamonn Fitzmaurice has already written months ago that we cannot let a great climax mask the overall judgement.
Cluxton is still the master in this area, irrespective of how much Shane Ryan has improved, Dublin will shade that side of things.
Jason Foley is the obvious one, he has had a good year, is strong and quick and seems to be the one most trusted by Jack OâConnor. Though these games tend to take on a life of their own Kerry are one of the teams who always like to go man for man.
David Clifford, because he changes games. He dictates games and his consistency is staggering. Cormac Costello can only shade him from here with another top class performance and a Dublin win.
Derry's Paul Cassidy had been the one who has stepped up for Derry in my opinion. From Sunday's finalists, only Lee Gannon is in contention in this respect.
Dublin. If they can they come out on top in a couple of their defensive key defensive match ups, the depth of the Dublin bench will prove crucial in last 10 minutes. Ciaran Kilkenny must also start for Dublin.
Dublin have to drop someone into the left channel of their defence to get pressure on Clifford supporting Michael Fitzsimons and limit the damage he could do if given space and time.
Both Kerry and Dublin never fail to deliver a classic, playing front-foot football. I would rate this yearâs championship in a new format to date as distinctly average with plenty of learnings to take from it. A few minor tweaks to the rules are needed to bring life back to many dull possession-based games.
This is a key area for Dublin. They must press Kerry when they get the opportunity. If Dublin can force more long contested kick outs I think they have an advantage in this area.
Jason Foley would be my choice as I would expect Tom OâSullivan to track Cormac Costello who has been a key danger for Dublin all year.
David Clifford â no words needed, he is simply a genius.
Brendan Rodgers, Derry. Whilst he was prominent last year at full back for Derry, he has excelled all year into a top-class midfielder and was consistently brilliant all year.
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