Anthony Daly on Cork v Kilkenny: The key battle and big match prediction
Robert Downey of Cork in action against Diarmuid Ryan of Clare. Picture: Brendan Moran/Sportsfile
Much of the narrative in the build-up to this game has rightly centred on Cork’s goal threat, and how green flags have become the poison in this team’s bite. With Kilkenny though, no other team appreciates that importance, as much as in psychologically terrorising teams than the three points which accrue from goals. In that context, I can see Kilkenny really going for goals early, with TJ at the heart of that search.
Kilkenny also know that they’ll probably need to match Cork’s goal-rate, and that it could take at least one, if not two, goals from TJ to win the match.
Similarly, Cork will go a long way towards securing victory if they can stop him from finding the net.
TJ is brilliant at foraging deeper out the field, at setting up scores and winning frees and generally being an assists machine, but I’m not sure he can balance that role with being the attacking threat Kilkenny may need him to be closer to goal.
Can Robert Downey hold him?
He has been around now since 2019, without having that massive amount of experience compared to some of the other Cork defenders. He didn’t feature against Limerick and you could argue that the only reason he’s on this team is because Damien Cahalane and Eoin Cadogan got injured for the Clare game, which opened the door for him.
Downey has really taken that chance with open arms; he was brilliant against Clare and was excellent in the second half against Dublin. I don’t know much about him but Downey looks to have that Cork confidence, and that Glen Rovers swagger about him, which is exactly what’s required going to Croke Park to take on Kilkenny.
He will need it against TJ. Of course, Kilkenny could play TJ at centre-forward to try and go after Mark Coleman in the air but I don’t see Cork allowing that match-up to happen. In any case, TJ is nearly more threatening, especially on puckouts, when coming out behind the centre-back from full-forward once Eoin Murphy bombs his delivery down on the top of the edge of the D, or either side of it.
Downey showed against Aaron Shanagher that he will at least be able to compete in the air. But TJ is possibly the best player we’ve ever seen in the air.
Following on from the last line above, the real beauty of having a player like TJ on the edge of the square is that you can just launch it high and long and still be fairly confident that TJ will grab it.
Even if he is surrounded by a gang of defenders, he is so efficient at making space and being able to stand his ground in the face of a physical onslaught that TJ can draw frees or throw the ball out to someone in a better position.
For all the power and pace of their running game, Cork are still not too dissimilar to Kilkenny in how they’re still very much in the traditional mould by keeping at least a couple of players close to goal. Cork are playing to their strengths but their mentality is also clearly different, especially towards scoring goals.
Jack O’Connor has been the greatest example of that mindset change but he isn’t the only one; Tim O’Mahony’s goal last Saturday, and Shane Barrett’s goal against Clare, provided Exhibits A and B of how Cork have really changed, because easy point chances were on both times and Cork ignored them and went for the jugular.
Kilkenny are different too in how they’re trying to play through the lines more, as well as using far more short stick-passing now than they would have even two years ago. Not having Colin Fennelly on the edge of the square does probably force them to leave TJ in that zone more often than he may like to be but you’ll still TJ out around the middle trying to necklace the play when he, or Brian Cody, sees the need for him out there. But if Kilkenny are managing well enough out around the middle, they’ll be confident of leaving TJ inside to inflict enough damage.
That’s why the TJ-Downey match-up is so critical to the outcome.
As TJ Ryan said on the podcast last Monday, this game is like a deaf dog – hard to call. I told TJ that it was like the deafest of dogs imaginable – nearly impossible to call. Five days and a headful of procrastination later, the outcome isn’t a whole lot clearer in my mind.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the first period of extra-time played this year. All-Ireland semi-final weekend over the last three years (since that format was first introduced in 2018) has normally thrown up epic after epic, and I’m expecting this to be another one of those classics. I’ve no doubt that Munster is stronger than Leinster at the moment but Kilkenny are always an outlier in any real comparisons between the provinces, and particularly with their record in All-Ireland semi-finals. In over 20 years, Cody’s sides have lost just three times at this stage: they’ve won 16 of their 19 All-Ireland semi-finals.
That experience may stand to them here, particularly after the disappointment of last year’s defeat to Waterford.
Plus, Kilkenny’s greater freshness – with Cork now playing a third game in 15 days – may also be decisive.
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