Cavan v Dublin analysis: Three big questions, the key match-up, and our verdict
The key match-up: Dublin's John Small v Gearóid McKiernan of Cavan.
It is not something we’ve seen happen on a regular basis but we saw in last year’s drawn All-Ireland final that Stephen Cluxton had some difficulty when Kerry pushed up and won the big battles in midfield.
Dublin were under pressure defensively because they were not winning that primary possession, which is their lifeblood.
Cavan did a kind of a false press on the Donegal kick-outs in the Ulster final and definitely rattled Shaun Patton. Cavan won some very important balls on the Donegal kick-outs and forced them out over the sideline.
Now the caveat of course is that one game was in Armagh and one is in Croke Park where Cluxton can use the expansive spaces to put the ball on a sixpence. But Galligan, McKiernan, Brady, Faulkner, and Clarke will fancy themselves out there if they can force Cluxton to kick long and make it a 50-50 contest around the middle, and that is what teams need to do to challenge Dublin properly - not to put up a good show or keep it respectable but actually win games.
Laois hit the post on their first attack and Meath had a good goal chance on their first attack, which made you wonder if Dublin were off the pace a little bit but then they went into overdrive. Even when they’re 15, 16 points up they are ruthless and do not accept things going half-right.
I don’t believe some teams when they talk about ‘the process’ but Dublin are almost trying to play the perfect game sometimes and they are very accountable to each other, and that approach drives performance and standards within the squad.
Usually, new managers come in and want to introduce change and put their stamp on things, but Dessie Farrell has stepped into the breach and accepted that things are close to the mark already and has just maintained that. He has brought in fresh faces which has kept the lads who are part of that squad for some time on their toes, and that is driving standards as well.
I like Ciarán Kilkenny close to goal. He has the instinct of a scoring forward and while he has done a job at wing-forward and even filled in at stages in midfield, he looks very comfortable in the full-forward line. He can bring other players into the game, he doesn’t kick too many wides or take too many wrong options but what I really like is the fact that he seems score-hungry.
James McCarthy will likely pick up Gearoid McKiernan, who is crucial to Cavan and takes a lot of watching, but he is very poor on the back foot and Dublin may try to exploit that weakness.
McCarthy flies under the radar and is so versatile. He can man-mark, play a free role, play a sweeper, he’s just a Rolls Royce of a player. When McKiernan plays well Cavan seem to respond to him playing well and he can kick six, seven points when he is on it so a big game from him and go a long way towards the Ulster champions being competitive.
Whether he starts or comes on, Conor Madden could make a serious difference. He has had 13 shots in two games and scored nine times. Nothing rattles him and in the system which Cavan play you need someone to take responsibility and he does that. Cavan are getting scores from everywhere and that is a real change in the psyche as far as they are concerned. If they can start well Cavan could grow into the game.
Often it’s been the case that McKiernan has been the lone gunman for Cavan but these last three games he’s had a posse with him. That dependency is still there even if it isn’t as obvious as before.
Blessed with a sweet left foot, he is a fantastic footballer whose strength in the air will be needed if kick-outs go long Saturday evening while he is a juggernaut with the ball in hand.
That direct running will present a challenge for Small who is in fine form and Dessie Farrell will surely consider the man-marking job on McKiernan as integral to overcoming the Cavan challenge. For all the chatter about Small’s disciplinary issues, few are better at bringing themselves to the edge without overstepping it. Neither man is going to back down here.
A massive game for Ciarán and it’s a pity that he has had to wait so late in his career for a breakthrough like this. He’s been on the national panel for a good few years and has always been there or thereabouts, picking up provincial finals and Super 8 games but this is his biggest test yet.
That he hails from the same province as one of the participating counties Saturday evening isn’t really a big deal when it is happening so much in hurling even if hurling has a smaller pool. He will have no motive other than to progress himself. This game, I expect, is going to be tighter than expected and he will have to be sharp for at least 50 minutes.
After relegation to NFL Division 3, there were very few predicting that Mickey Graham and his Cavan side would progress through the Ulster minefield and finish it off by winning a classic ‘underdog comes good’ final against Donegal.
Prior to that defeat, Donegal were being spoken about as one of the very few teams remaining in the competition that had the personnel and physicality that could realistically challenge Dublin.
Despite taking them out, Cavan are not seen to have the same capacity. The likes of Thomas Galligan (who should find himself nominated for footballer of the year), Martin Reilly and Gearoid McKiernan are their obvious standouts but they’ll all need another historic day of heroics if they are to do the impossible Saturday evening.
Dublin, while probably not being as good as they were a few years ago, ominously moved through the gears in Leinster.
In the wide-open spaces of Croke Park they will impose their game on the Ulster champions and put huge pressure on the Cavan kick-outs. James McCarthy on Galligan could be a classic match-up, but the Dubs will have too much to slip up here.
If people weren’t telling Cavan they didn’t have a chance against Donegal, they’re screaming it at them ahead of facing the All-Ireland champions. The Croke Park factor might not be what it would be with a blue Hill 16 but the vast majority of their previous GAA HQ experiences were in league finals and they don’t have an idea of playing Dublin on this field.
At least some of them know what it is to face them but then that six-point loss came in Kingspan Breffni Park last year. Dublin scouts will have earned their corn these past couple of weeks providing a dossier on a team that is more of an unknown entity than any team they have played at this stage.
Ever so surely, Dublin has been moving towards a more recognisable team. That doesn’t mean there is inertia; the best players are simply coming to the fore. His injury at the start of the Championship aside, it would be strange if Paul Mannion isn’t a starter by the All-Ireland final.
Instead of tiring, Cavan seem to be getting fitter with each game. They might even have more momentum than Dublin and if they can show the grit and the directness that defined their Ulster SFC campaign then they can make more of a fist of this than most expect.
Thomas Galligan will present a different kind of challenge to the likes of Brian Fenton and Killian Clarke’s intelligence will be needed to speed up the transitioning from defence to attack. He would be a wise choice to tag Ciarán Kilkenny.
It is worth testing this Dublin full-back line aerially. Not that Cavan can overdo it - they must vary - but route one is an option so rarely tried against them. But then Dublin so rarely allow it. Anything less than a double-digit win for Dessie Farrell’s side would be startling.
Dublin.
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