Can Dublin do four-in-a-row? The 2018 numbers come up blue again

Mayo’s stars are clearly not aligned but Dublin’s numbers add up to a completion of the four-in-a-row next season. 

Yes, there is the uber diligence of Jim Gavin and the talent of this great group of players to consider but there are other factors in their favour too for next year’s restructured All-Ireland senior football championship.

2 – Dublin face an extra two games to be crowned All-Ireland champions again in 2018, providing they win an eighth consecutive Leinster title. If they do take the direct route, they will play seven games to reach an All-Ireland final. That’s one more than Cork or Kerry’s shortest route — both have byes to separate Munster semi-finals — and it’s one less than the unfortunate teams draw in the preliminary round of Ulster.

The 2018 championship draw takes place live on RTÉ on Thursday, October 19. Extra-time will be played after all drawn championship games with the exception of the All-Ireland final.

3 – It wouldn’t be too difficult to predict four if not five of the counties who will comprise next year’s Super 8. Dublin don’t look like being toppled in their province any time soon meaning they will face the prospect of three “quarter-final” games in the space of four weekends.

Including the Leinster final and All-Ireland semi-final (should they qualify), it will be five games in nine weekends. The Ulster champions, whose provincial final is pencilled in to take place on the same day as the Leinster decider, will face the same schedule in the event they make an All-Ireland semi-final but, whoever they are, they don’t have Dublin’s depth of talent to manage such a run of fixtures.

5 – For all the talk about Lee Keegan and Cormac Costello’s conniving at the end of the final, there was also a hilarious moment when Diarmuid Connolly appeared to signal to Paul Flynn that the pair now had four All-Ireland medals only to be corrected by Flynn who pointed out they had five.

As innocent and lovely as that moment was from a Dublin perspective, it must have been as galling for empty-pocketed Mayo footballers as when cast of Sunday Game pundits dismissed the team’s All-Ireland prospects last October. Mayo can have all the motivation they want, as can Kerry and Tyrone, but Dublin are fuelled not by appetite but by astronomical ambition.

6 – The number of substitutes permitted in Gaelic football since the black card was introduced in 2014. Dublin’s dominance can hardly be attributed to such an initiative but when they have a superior squad to any county the ability to call on an extra player is beneficial. In fact, Gavin has said before if he had the power he would make more than six substitutions.

Who knows if the GAA chose to ape another rule from Australian Rules and implement the interchange (limitless replacements) but Dublin are most grateful to be able to call on more players. Look at the stats — in Kerry’s seven games against Dublin in Croke Park in the Gavin/Fitzmaurice era, Dublin’s substitutes have scored 4-14 to Kerry’s 0-8. Kerry’s bench has been scoreless on three of those seven occasions. In the six Dublin-Mayo SFC games in that time, Dublin’s auxiliaries have managed 1-11 to Mayo’s 0-3.

6 – Should Dublin reach a fourth consecutive All-Ireland final in 2018 and start their campaign with a Leinster quarter-final outside of Croke Park, it will mean they will play six matches at GAA HQ, one more than the five they played the last two seasons.

On one hand, their familiarity with Croke Park is a boost but then so much of that home comfort this decade has been earned on merit. On the other, an extra match away from Croker will hardly bother them considering their record on their travels has been exemplary, extending as far back beyond Gavin’s appointment at the end of 2012.

Going back to the 1996 Leinster quarter-final win over Westmeath in Navan, they have won nine of their last 11 SFC games on the road, the one draw and one defeat coming against Kerry in Thurles in 2001.

8 – In their defence of the ‘Super 8’, the GAA’s hierarchy haven’t been afraid to argue that it effectively double distils the championship.

“The All-Ireland championship should be structured so that the best teams in a particular year, irrespective of whether they are regarded as ‘strong’ or ‘weak’, contest the closing stage,” wrote GAA director general Páraic Duffy last year.

A means of introducing a tiered championship by stealth, there is little to fear for Dublin. Because of the extra matches in July, they might not be able to taper their season as they did so successfully this year but then every team with All-Ireland aspirations is in the same boat and even a defeat, possibly even two, or a draw, in the Super 8 can be afforded.

10 – It was in the 10th minute of second half additional time last Sunday when Joe McQuillan called matters to a halt.

Since last year, referees have been instructed to add on 20 seconds per single substitute exchange, a move which has elongated games but most certainly suited the likes of Dublin who have not only have such rich benches to call upon but a level of conditioning and fitness that only Mayo can currently match.

As inter-county Gaelic football moves slowly but surely to effectively becoming an 80-minute game, Dublin’s endurance is best.

20 – While it is becoming increasingly likely that a tweak more than any notable change will be made to the 2018 All-Ireland senior hurling championship at Saturday’s Special Congress in Croke Park, the motion that looks best placed to be passed is a rule that all kick-outs must pass the 20-metre line.

Now, this is seen in some quarters as a move to curb the influence of Stephen Cluxton or at least slow him down.

But analysis of his restarts in the 2017 championship prior to last Sunday illustrated just three of his 96 kick-outs failed to cross the 20m whitewash. If you come at the king, you best not miss.