Can familiar Kilkenny-Galway plot find a way to surprise us?

On the law of averages, Galway are due a win against Kilkenny tomorrow. Scrap that; on that law of averages Galway are overdue a win against Kilkenny tomorrow.

Six meetings since the 2012 Leinster final. Two draws and four Kilkenny victories, the most recent of them last summer’s brace, both of them little more than handy saunters. On the bridle to halfway, made ground rounding the home turn, soon clear, never troubled. Winner all right.

On the face of it, the very fact they haven’t beaten Kilkenny since blowing them away in the first half of that provincial decider four years ago renders Galway more dangerous, not less dangerous. But yes, we hear you: statistics won’t win it for the challengers.

They’ll only win it if they make it happen. They’ll only win it if they’re good enough. And logic says they’re not good enough. Logic says Kilkenny by four or five points.

Still, this is hurling. There are patterns and trends and threads. History repeats itself, but neither as tragedy nor as farce. It just repeats itself. With such a small number of balls constantly cannoning into one another on the same table, how could it not?

Precisely because it’s Kilkenny and Galway no preview can avoid a nod to the back story. The modern history of the counties has a distinct pattern alright. A pattern of frequent meetings, frequent Kilkenny successes — and, for all of that, frequent days when Galway have returned home both unbloodied and unbowed.

Let’s take the 1986 All-Ireland semi-final as our starting point. The day Cyril Farrell unleashed a three-man midfield on an unsuspecting world — certainly on an unsuspecting Kilkenny — and the day Galway defeated the Noresiders for the first time in the modern era.

Maroon and white again in 1987, this time in the final, to exorcise the ghosts of Birr in 1945 and ’47, when Jim Langton caught them on the line in two All-Ireland semi-finals. Kilkenny in 1992-93. Kilkenny on DJ Day at Semple Stadium in 1997. Kilkenny in the 2000 semi-final, Galway — famously — a year later. Kilkenny in the 2004 qualifiers, Galway with their 5-18 fusillade in a crazy All-Ireland semi-final the following season. Kilkenny in Thurles in 2006 and Croke Park in ’07 and Tullamore in ‘09 and Croke Park in 2010. Galway in the 2012 Leinster final.

That was 14 meetings, 9-5 to Kilkenny. Maybe not absolute parity of esteem, or at any rate not absolute parity of outcome, but certainly not an abusive relationship.

Four years ago tomorrow, Kilkenny entered the arena as MacCarthy Cup holders, having demolished Dublin in Portlaoise a fortnight earlier. Galway entered it having leaked four goals to Westmeath in the quarter-final. You know what happened next. If that can happen, then nothing should surprise us now.

We have seen everything from the pairing at this stage. Comfortable Kilkenny wins. Comprehensive Kilkenny wins. Predictable-surprise Galway wins (2001 and ’05). Surprise-surprise Galway wins (2012). Afternoons where Galway hurl well for some of the way (last September), or more of the way (the first hour of the 2007 quarter-final), only to fade. Draws. There is nothing left for the duo to hit us with. Well, perhaps one scenario. Galway beating Kilkenny to justify their player coup of the previous autumn…

Not that a Leinster title would justify the heave against Anthony Cunningham — only silverware in September will do that — but it would go some of the way towards validating it. Their incentive tomorrow is obvious. Micheál Donoghue shouldn’t be required to give a speech in the dressing room beforehand. Maybe he won’t even try.

Were Kilkenny the Kilkenny of three years ago — niggling injuries everywhere and a spluttering battery — one would be giving Galway quite a shout. The news from Portlaoise three weeks ago, however, was that they’re not.

There were injuries and absentees, yes. But there were no silly, irritating injuries. The upshot was that where in 2013 Kilkenny could only manage 1-14 and 0-16 against Dublin in O’Moore Park, and departed the provincial championship as a consequence, here they managed 1-22. The difference is oceanic.

Eoin Larkin was clearly well off the pace; he’ll be closer to it tomorrow. Obviously, Jonjo Farrell won’t hit 1-5 again, ever. But his display was refreshing in that it demonstrated that even in this day and age of numbers and analytics there’s still room for a good, uncomplicated trier. (As Bonner Maher has been demonstrating for the past five or six years, of course.)

Galway will have been heartened by the creaks in the champions’ full-back line. Even with Paul Murphy there to attack the first ball, Joey Holden was tentative. Inside the opening 20 minutes, he’d conceded two frees, been turned by Eamon Dillon and misdirected a handpass that led to a Dublin point. And Holden was caught for Joe Canning’s goal in the Leinster final last year. And Robert Lennon is more of a central player.

Some other observations.

Kilkenny deployed their collection of Transformers against Dublin, as Galway did against Offaly. The opening exchanges tomorrow will shake the ground in a way the opening exchanges in Limerick tomorrow week will not.

Dublin’s puckout strategy collapsed with the same thump it had at Nowlan Park during the league. Galway have enough heft up front to make the sliotar stick. Jonathan Glynn, who troubled Padraig Walsh in the air early on 12 months ago, is a loss, but only up to a point. While the challengers won’t lose the physical battle, winning the match will require the kind of craft that turns coals to diamonds. The kind of craft they lacked against Kilkenny last season.

Cathal Mannion owes himself a good performance after two sub-par efforts then. Conor Cooney didn’t start either match. Galway need someone with some kind of x-factor about him here. Cooney may be the man. In fact, he probably has to be.

It goes without saying that Canning has to be considerably better than he was back then too. At any rate, he has to be considerably more relevant. The story of Joe Canning’s championship career contains one chapter and one chapter only. One narrative, no twists. If there’s to be a second chapter it must begin soon. Tomorrow would be a good starting point.

Has Micheál Donoghue a vision? At any rate has he a plan, like Anthony Cunningham four years ago? If he does, it’s surely the simplest one. Go high, go long, go early — and for the love of God keep the ball away from Paul Murphy.

Michael Fennelly. An oil rig made from Ming pottery. What if he can’t get out of bed in the morning?

Conor Fogarty, so beloved of Donal O’Grady here. I often fail to see the totality of what Fogarty does when he’s there. I always see the totality of what’s missing when he’s absent.

Walter Walsh. Far from being a one-hit wonder, he’s stuck around and has quietly but steadily been climbing the charts again. He shows for every ball. That’s all that Brian Cody asks for.

Logic says Kilkenny by four or five points. Or by more. One caveat, though. It’s Kilkenny versus Galway. Kilkenny versus Galway. As history shows, one knows not the day nor the hour.