Rebels to prevail in shoot-out

Okay, no dilly-dallying. Want to know the prediction for tomorrow right here, right now? On the basis that delayed gratification is for Presbyterians rather than previewers, here goes.

Cork. Maybe by a point, maybe by two or three after a white-knuckle ride.

The rationale for the forecast in due course, but first a large caveat.

One suspects a comfortable majority of pundits will opt for a narrow Cork win. One suspects too they’ll take care to hedge this around with ifs and buts and on-the-one-hands and on-the-other-hands, emphasising in the process that this is an eminently winnable match for Tipperary, for good and numerous grounds we’ll similarly get to in a moment.

Should Eamon O’Shea’s men triumph, therefore, let’s please not have any nonsense about how they “were written off”; the very fact that so many tipsters will presumably have gone to absurd lengths to stress the ‘narrow’ part of it means precisely the reverse.

By the by, that isn’t fence-sitting; it’s acknowledging a tight-looking game for what it is and eventually coming down on one side. Clear? Nor is this a re-run of last Sunday, when some previewers went with their hearts – as any previewer is entitled to every now and then — and opted for Limerick because they wanted it to be so, even though logic said that Kilkenny would win it off the bench if they had to and logic was proved correct.

The dice are loaded differently tomorrow — or, rather, the dice are not loaded at all. There is no skill differential separating the protagonists and there is no chasm in panel resources. This is 50/50 stuff, or maybe 51/49 stuff.

The history of the pairing (82 championship clashes, 37 victories apiece) does not point a particular finger in a particular direction either.

Here’s a day when you pays your money and takes your choice.

On the face of it it’s anomalous the sport has had to wait till the 18th season of the back-door era for the two counties to clash in the All-Ireland series, albeit less of an anomaly in view of the omnipresence of the men in stripes.

And another anomaly: the two traditional Munster powers will tomorrow be playing non-traditional Munster hurling. Hurling has moved on. Cork moved with it quicker; Tipp have moved with it, and into a new, almost spiritual consciousness, under Eamon O’Shea. But the ghosts of Ring and Lynch and Doyle and 100 others will hover over Croke Park nonetheless.

Thirty years ago this would have been the Real All-Ireland final (in their own minds anyway). Six or seven years ago it would have amounted to little more than an i-dotting, t-crossing exercise to discover who’d have the honour of losing to Kilkenny in September.

It is not a case this time around. In light of last Sunday’s events, with Brian Cody’s troops outpointed by Limerick and only managing 15 scores, Cork and Tipp surely scent blood in the water next month inasmuch as they’ve allowed their minds to dwell on the prospect. Cork a little more so than Tipp, perhaps.

In their third year under the anointed one, Cork are approaching as close to critical mass as makes no difference. Their progress has been steady and linear. Semi-finalists in 2012, finalists 11 months ago and still standing now with a patently better team than last season. More bite in defence; more presence in midfield; snipers on every rooftop, centre-forward apart, up front. Ever since they got out on day release against Waterford they’ve never looked like not winning any of their three successive tests. For all of these reasons, defeat tomorrow would be the most dispiriting blow.

Assuming the day will be won by whomever scores more rather than by whomever concedes less, Cork are nicely fixed. On a bad day against Waterford they hit 1-21, on a good day they hit 0-28 and they’re averaging 2-22 a match.

Stringently as Tipp may defend, and clearly a fit Mickey Cahill will enhance their chances in that regard, Conor Lehane and Alan Cadogan are forwards of the type who can magic three points apiece out of a diet of crumbs. And Limerick franked the form of the Munster final on Sunday rather than smudged it.

The memory of Tipperary’s difficulties on the edge of their own square against Galway has not faded. Nor has the memory of the two early goals Seamus Harnedy bagged against them from that position in the league quarter-final back in March.

While on recent evidence you’d be tempted to say Pa Cronin is the forward Cork would miss the least were he injured, a fit Cronin with his aerial ability would certainly make the sliotar stick around the Tipp goalmouth. If Harnedy does spend most of his time on the right wing a leading priority will be to prevent Padraic Maher sallying forth and hoisting those high plummeting balls into the heart of the enemy defence.

Reasons for fancying Tipp? As stated earlier, numerous and good. It’s Cork they’re facing, so there’s no baggage on the carousel. They’re not favourites, which is no harm. Most hearteningly of all, tomorrow’s is a game that will be played on Tipperary’s terms. The room will be full of oxygen and Cork will allow them inhale it, as opposed to Kilkenny trying to asphyxiate them.

In theory all teams should improve the longer they remain in the tournament; in practice they don’t, some contestants having punched themselves out in the provincial championships or simply not possessed of the scope – for which read, the forwards — for improvement thereafter.

Of the trio that remain, Tipperary are the ones with the most complex attacking game, a delicate mechanism full of tiny wheels and cogs, of runs into space and passes of varying length and angles. The more often the mechanism is switched on, the more the glitches are eradicated and the smoother it runs. It will never be known how much Tipp would have improved by had they escaped from Nowlan Park last summer. But just reflect on the next level Clare ascended to between the qualifiers and September.

Regular readers will know of this observer’s admiration for Patrick Maher, expressed here so often as to be in danger of verging on tedious.

The difference in the sharpness of Maher’s first touch, this year on last year, is one of the most visible factors in Tipp’s upswing in form.

Another is the blossoming of John O’Dwyer, who finds space easily, swings sweetly (none of Seamus Callanan’s big wind-ups here) and shoots with conviction. Against Dublin he garnered the attention with two goals, but the fundamentals of his performance against Limerick in the Munster semi-final were more worthy if less flashy. Four points from play, two wides and a couple of balls dropped short to Nicky Quaid. Not O’Dwyer’s most gimlet-eyed afternoon ever, obviously, but eight attempts in 67 minutes is fair going.

Some other observations.

The fate of Munster champions in All-Ireland semi-finals since the installation of the back door is not encouraging. Eight wins, nine defeats.

Though no team containing James Woodlock will ever be routed in that sector, Tipp could break even in the middle of the field and concede one or two huge, Rebel-rousing points to Aidan Walsh surges nonetheless.

Darren Gleeson has yet to truly inspire confidence, even if there’s a case for saying he’s suffering from Not Being Brendan Cummins. He doesn’t have to pull off a series of Cummins-like saves tomorrow. He does have to communicate properly with his full-back.

For either side to concede a goal at any stage will constitute little more than a flesh wound, both forward lines being so stuffed with six-gun merchants that a quickfire two-or three-point retaliatory salvo at the other end will be no big ask and no surprise.

A game of thrust and counter-thrust for 60 minutes, then, with one team pulling away at the death to win by three or four points? Quite possibly.

So. Cork. Maybe by a point, maybe by two or three.