Top dogs in danger of slipping back to the pack

Met the proverbial man in the pub last weekend.

He insisted that the next three All-Ireland finals would be contested by Kilkenny and Tipperary, just like the last three have been.

Me: “So a Kilkenny/Tipp final six years in a row?”

Him: “Yes. Sure there’s no one else within an ass’s roar of them out there.”

Upshot: we have an even tenner (look, this is a recession) on it, him saying three more years and me saying no way.

There are several reasons why yer man will be proved wrong, and far sooner than he imagines.

Here’s one of them. It’s unlikely to take a lot to win this year’s All-Ireland. Come to that, this year’s may be the least difficult All-Ireland to win since that of 1999. Should that prove the case, it not only automatically lowers the bar, in so doing it broadens the base of potential contenders.

Granted, Kilkenny or Tipp could win it without being as good as they’ve been in recent years. They could win it because they’re still a few lengths ahead of the chasing pack despite being in danger of drifting back to them. They could win it because, like a hardened three-mile chaser, they have course and distance. They could win it from memory.

Alternatively, it may turn out that one or both have too much rust in the engine after their mileage these past few seasons. Under such a dispensation it would not be the biggest shock in the history of humanity for some other county to raise their game, find a tide in the middle of summer, take it at the flood and surf all the way to the Hogan Stand podium next September. Dublin, perhaps? Cork, possibly, as if to validate Christy Ring’s comparison with mushrooms? We’ll know more by the time the National League is over. And we’ll know more about the present state of health of Kilkenny and Tipperary by teatime tomorrow. Kilkenny having lost five members of their panel from last season, Tipp having lost one. But what a one to lose.

No question which of the two managers at Nowlan Park is the man under pressure. This is the year where Declan Ryan puts his stamp on his team. Or, alternatively, doesn’t put his stamp on his team, in which case come the autumn the Tipperary county board will be empanelling a sub-committee to recommend a new boss.

It’s understandable that Lar Corbett’s departure has given rise to much muttering about alleged communication problems. Let’s face it, the Tipp manager and coach are not the first two people you’d choose to go dancing with of a Saturday night. Ryan is quiet; Tommy Dunne is introverted, albeit an inordinately thoughtful interviewee. No longer are the players hanging out in the happiest dressing room they’d ever known (or the older ones hadn’t known since Nicky English was manager).

More worrying in a long-term context, however, is the message that radiated from last year’s All-Ireland series. Get stuck into Tipperary, as Kilkenny and Dublin did, instead of standing off gawking at them, as Waterford had made the mistake of doing, and you’re well on the way to disrupting that clockwork-mechanism attacking game of theirs. Think this small fact wasn’t noticed in Cork and such places? Winning the league, or going as close as makes no difference, would soothe many a savage breast in the homes of Tipperary. Having Brendan Maher back in the middle of the field is a start, and a very good one at that.

Kilkenny? Eddie Brennan is an obvious loss on his form of last September, but given that at his age he was going to be vacating the stage sooner rather than later his departure is scarcely a cause for sackcloth and ashes on Noreside. The biggest blow of the five retirements is that of John Dalton, who could cover any position in defence. It’s not necessarily a loss to Brian Cody’s first-choice XV. It is a considerable loss to his panel.

The league may not show us that Kilkenny or Tipp will win the All-Ireland. But it may well show us who won’t. And that tenner says it will.