Kerry’s overall ability and experience to swing it

IF you were to go solely on semi-final form, you might be inclined to favour Cork in tomorrow’s All-Ireland SFC final.

However, this would be a flawed judgement, not least the fact that Meath were inferior opposition compared to Dublin. Paul Caffrey’s team not only pushed Kerry to the limit but were close enough to drawing.

The one conclusion to be drawn from their respective games (one more, in Cork’s case) is that the champions came through the bigger tests. Not only were Dublin hugely competitive, but in the quarter-final Monaghan came agonisingly close to winning a game in which Kerry were clearly not at their best after a six-week lay-off following the Munster final.

Cork did not impress against Louth or Sligo. But, to be fair to them, they did produce a superb display against a Meath side which came in with an enhanced reputation following some notable displays in the qualifier series.

Nevertheless, the bottom line is that while the Royals might have been flattered by their win over an injury-hit Tyrone, they still didn’t perform up to standard when it came to the crunch.

Statistics can be misleading, but it’s interesting to note that while Cork were well beaten by Kerry in the semi-finals of 2002 and 2005 (by 15 and 13 points, respectively), they held them to six points 12 months ago. And, in spite of the fact that Graham Canty was missing, they didn’t concede a goal.

In the Munster final meeting in Killarney in July, neither side was really dominant, but they each hit purple patches in the second half. Initially Kerry opened up a six-point gap and threatened a takeover, but Cork fought back bravely and deserved at least a draw.

Since then, both teams managed significant improvements, each producing their best displays in the semi-final. On the Cork side, this was reflected in their consistency over 70 minutes, while one of the more notable features from a Kerry perspective was the stability achieved in defence, with newcomers Pádraig Reidy and Killian Young acquitting themselves excellently.

Additionally, Kieran Donaghy was back to his best form, both in his now familiar role as playmaker in the full-forward line and reinforcing midfield (late in the game) in a way he had not done as effectively in the latter part of last season after his move to attack.

By and large, we can dismiss past performances because, as we have seen so often in the past, form invariably goes out the window when they meet. The argument can be made that Cork have been steadily closing the gap but it is important to make the distinction that meeting their closest rivals in an All-Ireland final will be different from any other clashes.

In this context, the absence of Anthony Lynch represents a big blow to Cork because of his invaluable experience and the leadership role he fills.

Conversely, the availability of James Masters will boost their challenge because, whatever questions might be asked about his ball-winning ability, he has real class. And, it can be said that players like Donncha O’Connor and Kevin McMahon are starting to show the benefit of their experience, in the way Pearse O’Neill has lifted his standard from last year — and Michael Cussen has shown an ability to make a positive contribution when he gets the right ball.

Additionally, once a vacancy occurred in the half-forward line following the predicted move of John Miskella back to defence, Conor McCarthy was the obvious choice to come in.

One could argue about the merits of individual players and talk about the importance of key confrontations such as that between Nicholas Murphy and Darragh Ó Sé at midfield and between Graham Canty and either Kieran Donaghy or Colm Cooper.

Of course they will be influencing factors, but only in the context of how effectively the two teams perform as a unit and how best they can maximise their scoring opportunities.

My own view is that if anything will decide this game, it will be Kerry’s greater experience and as is well known by now, Nicholas Murphy is the only player (other than Lynch and substitute Eoin Sexton) who played in 1999 against Meath.

Specifically, the Kerry attack offers more of a threat and while the Cork defence has justifiably won a lot of credit for consistency, I could see their full-back line being stretched.

In effect, it may not matter too much whom Canty is assigned to marking (Donaghy, probably) because the threat posed by all three front players looks formidable.

Without question, Cork have a serious chance of winning and it will be no surprise to see them succeeding. But, I believe Kerry are still ahead of them in terms of overall ability and experience. And, as long as they play to their potential and encounter no unexpected hitches, I expect them to triumph.