If Kerry play to form, they will win

IT’S a long time since there was so much uncertainty about the outcome of the All-Ireland football final.

It stems largely from the respect Mayo have earned through the impressive manner of their win over Dublin. On the other hand, nobody doubts Kerry’s credentials, considering how effectively they got their championship effort back on track. Earlier on, it seemed that they had dropped out of contention completely after a very poor Munster campaign, that the title ultimately would rest between Armagh and Dublin.

It poses the question of how the public at large would view the outcome if Mayo had just scraped through their semi-final, if such serious questions had not been asked of their character and their ability and they had not been answered so convincingly. The probability is that Kerry would be installed as strong favourites and could very well be caught off guard.

Understandably, they remain the popular choice to win because of a quite remarkable recovery of form, first signalled in the game with Longford and reaffirmed in the Armagh game. After that, it was as good as certain that they would beat Cork at the third attempt and get back to a third consecutive All-Ireland decider which in mid-July seemed beyond their grasp.

Jack O’Connor laughs off the suggestion that his is a one-man team, a view reflecting the major input Kieran Donaghy has had since being converted into a full forward for the Longford game. The reality is while his influence has been significant, the whole team has been re-energised since the Munster final replay.

And, importantly in the context of how Tyrone won last year’s final (they were more battle-hardened), Kerry’s more demanding campaign this time has prepared them well. Whether or not it will make the difference between winning and losing this time is another matter.

Much will depend on how Mayo cope with the pressure of trying to win the county’s first title in 55 years — which can either inspire them or be a burden as it has been in the past. Based on what we have seen of them in the last three games — especially the semi-final — it would seem that they will react positively to the challenge. And, given the right combination of circumstances, they are well capable of succeeding.

Back in 1989, they went close to beating Cork (and might have but for a vital save late in the game by the late John Kerins) and they should have beaten Meath in 1996 (when a fluky point from Colm Coyle forced a draw and mistakes cost them dearly in the second game).

Against Kerry in 1997 they couldn’t cope with the genius of Maurice Fitzgerald and two years ago they were eight points down at half-time and never afterwards looked capable of toppling a Kerry team missing the injured Darragh Ó Sé.

While it’s by no means certain, I expect Mayo to give of their best, based on the belief this group of players is mentally better equipped to forge a victory than either of the previous two combinations which lost to the Kingdom.

Ability-wise, they compare favourably to Kerry, strong in defence and very competitive at midfield. However, on paper their attack doesn’t promise as much and this is where the match could be won and lost.

Kerry will obviously want to exploit Kieran Donaghy’s ball-winning ability, but they are likely to vary their attacking options to get the most from Colm Cooper and Mike Frank Russell. To achieve this they will need to build attacks from the back and do so consistently.

From Mayo’s perspective, the priority will be to limit the effectiveness of the Kerry backs (the way the Kilkenny forwards did in the hurling final), and build up their own momentum by maximising the return from Ronan McGarrity and Pat Harte at midfield. For Conor Mortimer to gain a decent return, for Alan Dillon to build on his growing reputation and for Ciaran McDonald to contribute in a significant way, this is a must.

Outside of Kerry, the whole country would love to see Mayo triumph and in different circumstances the Kingdom would be on their side too. However, it will take more than sentiment for that to happen. Mickey Moran’s team will have to show they know how to win, that they have the temperament to fulfil their potential, that they can avoid failing in the way previous teams have. From a Kerry perspective, there is a greater probability they will play up to form. And, if they do, they will win. It’s as simple as that.

* Brian Crowe from Cavan will be in charge of his first final.