Ruby Walsh: Busselton can strike in Kerry National
STEPPING UP TO THE PLATE: Hewick and Jordan Gainford (green silks) win the Tote Galway Plate at Ballybrit in July. He looks destined to put on another bold show in the Kerry National at Listowel. Picture: Healy Racing
There are many fishwives' tales in horse racing, and one is people believing they should back the first horse they see when going to a day at the races. I am sure this has worked for some, but I have no doubt it has failed to be profitable on many occasions, just like listening to every tip you get, including from me.
Finding winners is all about opinion, but John ‘Shark’ Hanlon could have stood in the parade ring at Galway eight weeks ago and said “I told you so” after Hewick won the Plate, because he did: He told everyone and anyone who stopped to talk to him.
I didn’t dismiss the Shark but formed my own opinion after I read through his life history. His confidence or belief in his stable star was unwavering, but I doubted him. I firmly believed he wouldn't be quick enough to win the midsummer highlight and would most likely be staying on at the finish for a place if he was lucky.
It went like this: 0/12 in 2019, three runs in point-to-points and nine on the track, followed by three more shocking efforts. However little he had cost connections in the beginning, he then looked to be worth even less. A step up the maximum distance for hurdle races in Ireland brought about a change in fortunes for Hewick, and on his 13th start he delivered his first of three hurdle race victories — not unlucky for some.
As with age, jumping fences brought about further improvement but even looking at what he achieved before his Galway win didn't convince me. His Sandown rout had landed him £90,000 (€102,706) in prize money, but it was where the handicapper had him that made me question his chances most.
He was beaten at Perth in September 2021 off a rating of 137, which got him a five-pound penalty before he won at Sedgefield in October when rated 142. He carried the seven pounds he gained for that when winning at Sandown and returned to Galway with six more, equating to a rating of 155. His improvement made me wonder how he ever started in grades four stone lower but even more so had me thinking that he had overachieved already.
Time shows he hadn't, but on Wednesday he will try and do what only one other horse has managed in 35 years: Win the Kerry National with a rating of over 160.
Ratings pre-1998 are not recorded with form, but I am willing to bet Dorans Pride was over 160 when he prevailed in 1997, having finished third in the Gold Cup, but in 1999 on the same mark as Hewick, 163, he couldn't give three stones away to Lanturn, who won with nine stone on his back.
A top weight, Euro Leader, triumphed in 2005 carrying 12st, but his rating of 133 wouldn't get him into today's race, or if it did, he would be carrying 9st10lbs and getting 30lbs from Hewick. It is the same race only in the title if we are to believe the standard of today's contest.
Since 2015 each of the top weights has ranged from 152 to 157, making today's race at least six pounds better than the previous seven and some 16 better than 2013, when Carlingford Lough shouldered top weight off a rating of 147.
I'm sorry, John, but for Hewick to win at Listowel, he potentially has to be a 170 horse or a Grade One chaser. Great for connections if he is, but it's more likely that Hewick's surge up the ratings have created an ideal opportunity for a talented horse, who ordinarily would have a considerable weight here, to sneak in with a racing weight around 11st or under.
Rock Road, the first reserve, is an obvious one if he gets his chance to run, and so too is Cape Gentleman, who over-raced early in the Galway Plate. However, Busselton jumps out at me. He is a handy horse who gamely shouldered 11st 12lb in the Galway Blazers when finding only Gabbys Cross too good, but he will be much more suited to a weight of 10st 5lbs.
The other one towards the bottom that could be worth a look is Jeremy's Flame. Cabaret Queen triumphed for the mares in 2020, and Gavin Cromwell's charge has decent novice chase form from last season and the featherweight of 10st 3lbs to carry.
Willie Mullins and Paul Townend have been dominating the National Hunt cards so far this week in Listowel and No Risk No Fun and Uncle Phil should ensure their week continues to get better. Darrens Hope looks the star in the 3.45 mares’ chase, and Good Time Jonny can give his boisterous owners a reason to cheer for the night in 4.55.
