Ireland face daunting task of stemming tidal wave of New Zealand attack
To beat New Zealand you have to force them into committing numbers to areas they would rather not get dragged into.
They thrive in broken play, due primarily to making good decisions and executing well under pressure. It helps that all of their forwards are as comfortable passing and offloading as any of their outside backs.
While they are extremely effective at identifying the possibility of generating a turnover and will flood the breakdown to make that happen, in general terms they look to commit as few numbers to that sector as possible.
If a turnover isn’t on then they will commit as few as two players into contact against three or four Irish which makes it very difficult for Johnny Sexton to create space out wide when the ball is recycled.
To pressurise New Zealand, you have to find ways to suck them into the contact area.
Their defence around the ruck and maul is often suspect and Argentina made life very difficult for them at times in the Rugby Championship by attacking close with pick and drives as Munster like to do.
The key is to control possession and make yardage on your terms while also forcing them to commit more players to repel the drive.
Your ball presentation has to be spot on and you also need to be extremely physical in every clean out as technically the New Zealanders are brilliant at getting players over the tackled player, competing for a turnover.
There is a fine balance to be struck here as if Ireland continually commit more numbers to the breakdown than the All Blacks and they manufacture a turnover, the consequences are huge. This New Zealand side score more tries from turnovers than any other in the international game.
They immediately size up where the mis-matches are and have to skill set to exploit it.
It therefore becomes a very difficult balancing act, requiring players to make quick decisions and reacting to what’s happening in front of them. Conor Murray has a huge role to play here in scanning and communicating to his forwards exactly what’s required and where they can make the most impact.
Joe Schmidt has never apologised for the regularity with which Ireland kick the ball. Why should he given that the strategy delivered back-to-back Six Nations championships for Ireland.
Indeed this New Zealand side kick in equal measure but that is not as evident given the number of tries they score from outside the opposition twenty two.
Ireland’s kick chase has been excellent for some time while Murray’s box kicking has generally been of the highest quality with sufficient hang time for the chasing wingers to either compete in the air or force the receiver into touch for an Irish line-out.
This strategy will be pursued today given that Steve Hansen has opted for the attacking flair of Waisake Naholo over the aerial skills of Israel Dagg as an auxiliary full back to support the mercurial Ben Smith in the New Zealand back three.
Both Julian Savea and Naholo struggle at times when the ball in put in behind them, a chink that Sexton will attempt to expose. From an attacking perspective however that trio have the capacity to rip Ireland apart.
Outside of turnovers, New Zealand’s key source of tries comes from counter-attacks launched off poor opposition kicks. They deliberately pressurise you into kicking the ball in order to run it back at you immediately.
Their lines of running, support play and use of decoy runners keeps the opposition defenders on their heels and constantly under pressure to make the right decisions.
Andy Farrell proved an inspirational addition to the Irish coaching set-up in South Africa but given his brief revolves around the defensive structure and organisation of the team, he faces a far more searching examination in the two tests against New Zealand than anything faced against the Springboks.
When Ireland were forced to defend with 14 men for 60 minutes after CJ Stander was sent off in the opening test in Cape Town, the Springboks botched several efforts at capitalising on their numerical advantage. In similar circumstances New Zealand would have run riot.
If Murray and Sexton can find space in behind that New Zealand back three and force them to retreat then that will buy an extra second for the likes of Andrew Trimble, Simon Zebo and Robbie Henshaw to use their power and pace to stifle New Zealand’s counter-attacking strategy and force their forwards into tracking back in greater numbers than they are used to.
Problem is, if those kicks are too deep and that back three is given an opportunity to run back at scrambling Irish defenders, then tries are inevitable.
To win you have to find a way of taking them out of their comfort zone, something Schmidt has been very good at when analysing most opposition. He will have to come with something special to win this one however.
Despite the runaway nature of their Rugby Championship success this summer - New Zealand won it with a maximum return of 30 points with Australia their closest rival on 14 - there were long periods in most games when the Wallabies, Argentina and South Africa were either dominating or putting New Zealand under serious pressure.
The difficulty was in sustaining that effort. Steve Hansen uses his full resources on the bench to lift the intensity of the game even further over the last 30 minutes of every game.
Incredibly they have never been behind in any of their ten contests in this calendar year entering that phase — they were level on two occasions. Even more telling is the fact that they won that last half hour segment of those contests by an average of 28 points.
The challenge therefore is to be ahead on the scoreboard entering the final quarter and to match the impact of players like Charlie Faumuina, Ardie Savea, TJ Perenara, Malakai Fekitoa and Aaron Cruden when introduced by Hansen.
That is where the loss of key squad players Peter O’Mahony, Sean O’Brien, Iain Henderson and Paddy Jackson will be felt most today. Imagine the impact O’Mahony and O’Brien would have made on the match-day squad, even off the bench.
Instead, apart from Sean Cronin and Cian Healy with a combined 108 caps, the other six replacements have only 15 caps between them.
Henderson’s loss has been lightened somewhat by the fact that the three leading New Zealand second rows in Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock and Luke Romano all miss this outing with back rower Jerome Kaino starting a test as a lock for the first time.
As a consequence their line-out is unlikely to be as clinical and effective as it was throughout the Rugby Championship.
That said, it is from unstructured play that New Zealand wreak most havoc and Ireland will be up against it to stem the inevitable tidal wave launched from the 50th minute onwards.
