Are New Zealand beatable? Yes, of course they are
With a Lions series on the horizon in New Zealand next summer, Warren Gatland will carefully dissect the performances of several Irish hopefuls. We will all be a little bit wiser at the conclusion of this November Series.
Monday last, October 31, not only marked the 38th anniversary of Munster’s famous win over New Zealand in Thomond Park but also a calendar year since Richie McCaw lifted the William Webb Ellis trophy at Twickenham. New Zealand are unbeaten since.
Six of that squad retired on the spot, despite the fact that most were still, arguably, the best in class in the international game.
The midfield axis of Dan Carter, man-of-the-match in his last appearance in an All Black jersey, Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith were sensational but were supplemented even further when Sonny Bill Williams was sprung from the bench at half-time.
Up front, McCaw was still the most influential forward on the team while at loose-head prop Tony Woodcock’s injury-enforced absence after the pool stage was barely noticed due to the impact of his replacement, Joe Moody. With Dane Coles having completed his journey to world class hooker, Keven Mealamu was sprung from the bench with 15 minutes remaining for his 132nd and last cap.
That honour-laden sextet alone represented not only a combined loss of 707 caps in one fell swoop, but a treasure chest of rugby intelligence. How could New Zealand rugby hope to absorb such a collective loss of brilliance? As they always do, with contemptible ease.
In doing so we have seen the real genius of Steve Hansen as an international coach.
Some might say coaching New Zealand is the easiest gig in the game. Not so. It is all well and good when things are going well, but, as successive coaches found out, lose just one or two games and be prepared for a filleting like no other.
Hansen’s biggest achievement since assuming the reigns from Graham Henry after winning the 2011 World Cup was not retaining their title — monumental though that was — but in planning and shaping the transition that has taken place since. Nobody does succession planning better than New Zealand. Mind you, it helps when a group of freakishly good young players — Anton Lienert-Brown being the latest — appear from nowhere with such alarming regularity.
McCaw’s direct replacement, Sam Cane, represents the perfect case in point. Not only had the Waikato Chief accumulated 31 caps by the time the famed All Black captain stepped down after the 2015 decider, he had also captained New Zealand and was a key member of their leadership group.
Just when he might have thought that, with McCaw finally off the scene, he was about to assume ownership of the famed No 7 All Black jersey, Wellington openside Ardie Savea delivers a breathtaking season with the Super rugby winning Hurricanes to pile the pressure on Cane.
When both were recently ruled out with injury, Canterbury’s Matt Todd came in and was equally effective. All three are in the current New Zealand touring squad meaning Hansen is spoilt for choice in what has always been a pivotal position in every New Zealand side.
Even as a leader of supreme influence, McCaw has been seamlessly replaced by an equally charismatic figure in Kieran Reid, who has yet to experience defeat in the role. The quality of his all-round game — look out for some of his breathtaking offloads over the next few weeks — mark him as a special player in a special team. Operating in tandem with Jerome Kaino and Cane, the effectiveness of the New Zealand back row has incredibly lost nothing post the McCaw era.
re New Zealand beatable? Of course they are. Like any side, if your head is not in the right place then you become vulnerable, especially when every side you play against tends to lift their game due to a fear of being humiliated.
The problem with trying to put this New Zealand side away is that they are relentless. You can dominate for long periods, enjoy a marked superiority in terms of territory and possession and still be on the receiving end of a hiding when the final whistle blows.
Much of this is down to the sustained intensity they bring to the contest along with a bench impact that, if anything, manages to increase the tempo while you are flagging. Your bench needs to be every bit as good as theirs to have a chance of victory.
Not only did they record a maximum return of 30 points from their recent Rugby Championship triumph, with a four-try bonus secured in all six games against South Africa, Australia and Argentina, their scoring rate in the final quarter was off the charts.
When space opens up, they are ruthless. Full back Ben Smith has mastered the art of being able to grubber kick while running at full pace, exploiting the space in behind the onrushing blitz defence time and time again. Julian Savea is back to his best and Coles has redefined the way a modern hooker can influence the outcome of games.
The biggest challenge facing Ireland on Saturday is having to readjust to the pace and intensity of international rugby with only a handful of field sessions together since the summer. Having scrutinised the Springboks on three consecutive Saturdays last June, when leaving the Nelson Mandela Stadium in Port Elizabeth after the final test, I not only cursed the fact that Ireland had left a history-making series win behind them but pondered the damage the current New Zealand side might inflict on that Springbok outfit.
On October 7 in Durban I got my answer. It was even more emphatic than I imagined, with the All Blacks registering nine tries in a 15-57 rout.
The frightening thing is that South Africa looked really competitive in the opening half and reached the break only three points in arrears at 9-12. The second half descended into an unprecedented low for South African rugby on home soil when they were demolished 6-45.
Ireland will be infinitely more competitive than that on Saturday and you just know, with Joe Schmidt on board, he will present a blueprint to the Irish players that will convince them that if they can do A,B, and C, they will score.
Implementing that plan will, as always against New Zealand, prove the difficult part but in two of the last three internationals against them, many of this Irish squad were in a position to deliver that, long awaited, first ever international win but just failed to close it out.
It now appears certain that both, highly influential, second rows Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock will miss Saturday’s game due to injury. They have managed to cope in the past with the absence of one of those totems but both out together will certainly weaken their lineout and continuity game, a chink that Ireland must exploit.
Beating them requires an eradication of errors and a 100% conversion of scoring opportunities every time they arise. Even then, New Zealand will take you to the final whistle. The challenge is not only to be in the lead entering the final 10 minutes but being able to stay with the freakish intensity levels they continuously deliver as the finish line approaches.
Nobody has even come close to achieving that for some time.
