Welsh believe they have Ireland sussed
The starting Lions second row combination from the victorious Australian tour in 2013 continue to exert an enormous influence over their respective front fives.
O’Connell, despite his advancing years, still leads the Irish charge up front while in a unit that — more often than not — struggles to come out on top, Jones is a true colossus.
In their recent win over France in Paris, the towering Ospreys lock was a force of nature and had an enormous influence on every facet of play. The Welsh line out has struggled for some time now despite the best efforts of Alun-Wyn Jones.
The inclusion of 6’ 9” Luke Charteris helped spread the workload at the Stade de France and incredibly Wales managed a 100% return on their own throw for the first time in four years.
The promotion from the bench of another Osprey, hooker Scott Baldwin, is a significant factor here while Wales retain the luxury of having another Lion waiting in reserve in the highly combative Richard Hibbard.
Given the demolition job the Irish line-out maul did on the Welsh in Dublin last season, Jones must make the key decision on when his charges let Ireland go uncontested in the air in order to stem the Irish drive at source on the deck.
Irish forwards coach Simon Easterby adds a fresh layer of intelligence on the Welsh squad and O’Connell will be picking his brain in great detail this week.
Easterby’s insight is even more recent than that 2013 Lions sojourn, given that as Scarlets head coach up to the beginning of last season, he attended Welsh squad sessions at varying times over the last few years.
When Wales last beat Ireland in that 21-23 victory in Dublin in 2012, a key tenet was employing a clever kicking game that reduced Ireland to just five line-out deliveries over the eighty minutes.
In defeat over the last two seasons, Ireland had 15 and 17 line-out feeds and that had a significant impact on the outcome of the contest.
I expect Wales will endeavour to kick to touch as little as possible in order to deny Ireland the same maul carnage that ripped their challenge apart last year.
Therefore O’Connell and Jones, who call the respective line-out strategies, will be required to adapt and adjust on the run. Communication is made that bit more difficult in the deafening surrounds of the Millennium Stadium.
Both are not only superb players but also excellent tacticians.
In tight battles such as this, the top six inches will play as important a role as the outstanding physicality and athleticism they bring.
If a Lions squad was being selected at the conclusion of the Six Nations, Johnny Sexton and Conor Murray would not only be certainties but would also start the test series.
Also guaranteed a seat on the plane would be Welsh half-back pairing of Dan Bigger and Rhys Webb. Bigger is a class act and it has taken far to long for Warren Gatland to show trust in him and give him his head.
His combination with try-scoring sensation Webb at the Ospreys has been superb this season and this Welsh duo have the capacity to put it up to their more established opponents in Irish colours today. Webb is a constant threat around the breakdown and will attract the attention of the Irish back row.
That buys Bigger an extra second and allows him attack the gain line and that is crucial to the way Wales play under Gatland.
Their entire game is built around generating forward momentum. Stop that, as England did so successfully in round one, and you stop this Welsh side.
Sexton and Murray have marshalled Ireland superbly in this tournament to date but the Munster man, in particular, will be targeted by Dan Lydiate and Taulupe Faletau today.
Wales were excellent at the breakdown against France with captain Sam Warburton having his most effective game in some time.
They will be very aware of the tournament stats that show Ireland produce the quickest ball at ruck time. That, more than anything else, has enabled Sexton and Murray to launch their kicking game.
Ireland gamble in committing more numbers into rucks than their opponents in the knowledge that they will kick more often than not and therefore require less numbers to attack.
The risk, of course, is that you have less numbers to defend in the event of a turnover.
Wales will be conscious of this and may choose to gamble themselves. The outcome of that battle for supremacy at the breakdown is what will ultimately dictate which potent half-back combination has more influence on the outcome. The fact that Wales concede an average of fifteen turnovers per game tilts the balance in Ireland’s favour.
Sexton carries the additional burden over Bigger of taking the place kicks and one hopes his recent hamstring strain hasn’t hampered his meticulous training routine in the build-up to this game.
With the prodigious Leigh Halfpenny assuming that responsibility for Wales, the margin for error has narrowed considerably on that front.
No team is better geared to combat the aerial demands that Ireland’s kicking game inflicts on the opposition than Wales. Not only that but Wales are the only other side in the championship that actively seek to control the skies themselves.
Their back-line is even more physically imposing than Ireland’s. Jamie Roberts and George North would probably be competing for places in the second or back row of the scrum had they been around in the 1980’s.
Given Ireland’s appetite for aerial combat, some in the Principality were banking on an immediate recall for yet another giant in 6’6” winger Alex Cuthbert.
However, I’m not surprised that Gatland has retained Scarlets full back Liam Williams on the right wing after his showing against France. He is a more rounded footballer than Cuthbert and, in company with Dan Bigger, is also brilliant at retrieving his own aerial bombs.
Ireland’s back-line is the tallest ever fielded with all seven starters well over 6ft. In addition five have played Gaelic football to a decent level.
Surprisingly given his Kerry roots, Johnny Sexton is one of the exceptions while the GAA didn’t figure on Jared Payne’s radar growing up in Tauranga in New Zealand’s picturesque Bay of Plenty.
Joe Schmidt is the master when it comes to maximising his team’s competitive advantage and exposing the potential weaknesses of the opposition.
He immediately recognised that the pin-point accuracy provided by the boot of Sexton and Murray needed to be utilised in not only putting the opposition back three under pressure, but also retrieving possession and using it to best effect.
The fact that the entire back-line — outside the half-back pairing — have considerable experience of playing full back has also helped in developing a collective aerial skill set second to none.
Wales are better equipped to deal with Ireland’s game plan than England and will only see opportunity in Ireland’s kicking game, confident they will be more than a match for Schmidt’s men when it comes to the art of fielding.
If they can win that contest, they know Ireland will be left a little narrow in defence with the chasers out of position and will look to move the ball quickly into that vacant space.
No side has managed to do that yet this season as, more often than not, Ireland have managed to retrieve possession from their kicks.
Having had ample time to study Ireland’s favoured approach, Wales have the attributes on board to turn what is an Irish strength into a potential weakness.
Ireland need to be ready with a response if that happens.
