Lessons to be learned from flawed group stage
Eleven sides are still in with a shout for the remaining five places in the knockout stage and there are three direct deciders.
Two of them involve Liverpool and Manchester City, the other features Monaco and Zenit St Petersburg.
Good news for the sponsors and Uefa’s marketing department, yet this group stage has also demonstrated flaws in the competition.
1. The competition has become skewed
Uefa claims that the group stage has improved because more goals are being scored.
The average has risen to almost 3 per game this season compared to 2.5 five years ago. Matchday 3 in October set a tournament record of 40 goals on one night.
But the real change is in the margin of victory, more teams winning by four goals or more. In the 2009-10 season the goal difference in Champions League matches was in line with Europe’s main domestic leagues: since then it has steadily got wider. One-sided goal feasts are possibly helpful in building the worldwide television audience but eventually they will devalue the competition.
2. Outsiders have improved despite results
Even so, some rank outsiders such as APOEL, Maribor and Ludogorets have performed better than you might think.
APOEL collapsed at home against the combined threat of Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez but the Cypriot champions were only beaten by a single goal in their other three games against Barcelona and Paris Saint Germain.
Maribor were impressive and a little unlucky in their three draws against Sporting, Chelsea and Schalke. Ludogorets were close to sharing the points in Liverpool and competed toe-to-toe with Real Madrid in their home game.
Only BATE Borisov, dismembered twice by Shakhtar’s Brazilian contingent, truly confirmed their minnow status, although they did manage a win against Bilbao.
3. Football survives politics — for now
A few months ago it seemed touch and go whether Shakhtar Donetsk could compete in the competition, let alone qualify for the next round. Civil war was raging, shell-fire hit the stadium and several of their foreign stars decided it was wiser to depart for safer climes.
Playing 1,000 kilometres from home, in Lviv on the Polish border, they were close to beating Porto and topping their group.
The two Russian sides have also surprised with their resilience, especially as CSKA Moscow were obliged to play their home games in an empty stadium.
Uefa has been involved in delicate diplomacy on its eastern front, but decided recently to ban Crimean clubs from competing in the Russian league.
A Shakhtar-Zenit match in the next round is one possibility the diplomats would no doubt prefer to avoid.
4. Italian decline continues
It is possible that both Juventus and Roma will go through this week, which will no doubt be greeted with headlines as evidence of an Italian revival.
Appearances can be deceptive. Bayern Munich’s 7-1 win in the Stadio Olimpico in October provided a devastating reminder of how far behind Serie A has fallen; the most comprehensive home defeat of an Italian side in European competition.
As for Juventus, in 2004 they beat Olympiakos 7-0. This time they lost 1-0 in Greece and just scraped through 3-2 at home.
The long-term problems of Italian football continue and the eclipse of both the Milan clubs is making Serie A even less competitive.
5. Luck of the draw plays too big a role
This year’s group stage has demonstrated more clearly than ever that the group stage depends too much on the luck of the draw.
Uefa has moved to change the seeding for next year, with Pot One made up of league champions. That will be a step forward, but is it enough? Roma or Manchester City could qualify with six points this year, whereas 10 points or more is normal.
Even stranger, Monaco have scored just two goals in their five matches so far and can qualify with a 0-0 draw against Zenit.
In past years sides have qualified with a goal tally of three; two would be a new low.
More balance is needed between groups as well as within them.
