Cork dare not march to beat of Banner drum
When people discuss games there are two things I listen out for — are they quoting statistics or perceptions because the latter can be very misleading.
There is one out there that Cork were poor on their own puck-outs. This is incorrect from a statistical viewpoint. Anthony Nash went long with the vast majority of his deliveries and many believe Cork won very few.
They may not have caught puck outs cleanly but the cold fact is that Cork won 50% of their own puck outs. The average win ratio for one’s own puck outs is 35% to 40%. So Cork were well ahead on Nash’s restarts. Winning or losing a certain number of puck outs may have no appreciable bearing on the result once the average is attained but the stat that is ultra important is the number of restarts won consecutively. If a side can string three or four win puck-outs together these provide a platform for a team to take a grip on the game, particularly if they are being won up in their half-forward line.
Clare established an early grip the last day. The puck-out win ratio was crucial to this dominance and in the first half their half-back line won half of Cork’s and they won seven from 11 of their own. This is over 60%, well above average.
They lost their first but won the next seven in-a-row around their half forward/midfield area and it provided a great platform.
However, they failed to convert their goal chances and when they lost their final three puck-outs in-a-row Cork had a good period and brought the lead back to a manageable proportion by half-time.
Once again the puck-out is an area that will clearly have a big bearing on the game today.
Clare will hope for a similar performance to the first day. The issue they will debate is the use of Conor McGrath and Podge Collins. In the first game they were used to pick up puck out breaks but it robbed them of inside goal power.
Davy Fitzgerald may change that this afternoon. He has the option of playing a sweeper but didn’t the last day and it clearly upset Cork. I don’t think he’ll start with a sweeper this time either, although he will certainly consider it if they have a second-half lead.
He may employ the tactic used against Cork in the Munster semi-final. Conor McGrath and Darach Honan were used as a two-man inside line with the elusive Collins operating around midfield/half-forward line making runs from deep that completely opened up the Cork defence early on.
They created three clear goal scoring opportunities against the same Cork full-back line although Shane O’Neill was on Collins and Stephen McDonnell was on Darach Honan. Collins may operate as an orthodox full-forward for a few minutes and then engage in a roaming role out at half-forward hoping to draw O’Neill, preferably, away from the square where he has been dominant all year.
From half-forward, Collins could pick breaks, support Tony Kelly and Colm Galvin and run at Cork’s defence offloading to Honan. Goals will be needed by Clare today.
Clare imposed their tactics on Cork the last day. The Rebels were reactive rather than proactive, marching to the beat of the Clare drum. It’s a given that Cork will have to be far better overall this afternoon in the middle third, more physical and committed throughout the pitch and take the game to their opponents.
Clare thrive in space. The first principle of defensive play is to cut down on the space available to the attack. A seven-man defence with help from back-tracking midfielders would force Clare into hurried decisions as the extra Cork bodies, holding their positions, could tackle more effectively denying point scoring opportunities from play.
More cover leads to better discipline which would deny the Banner opportunities from frees. Brian Murphy would man mark Podge Collins with Conor O’Sullivan operating in a free role.
Lorcan McLoughlin could drop back to the half-back line providing extra cover while Cork would operate a three-man flexible midfield with instructions to set up runs at Clare’s defence as often as possible.
Clare defenders are inclined to foul when they are taken on and with Pat Horgan in good form Cork could see a profitable return from this tactic.
Cian McCarthy has been picked to win aerial ball but Cork’s half-forwards might be better off using their sticks to contest for the ball this time round, breaking it or pulling on it rather than attempting to catch every delivery as they did the last day. With captain Pa Cronin hampered by injury in the lead up to the first game he should get more involved in the replay.
The Rebels may not get three goals today but it is the lessons they have learned from game one that will determine this outcome. If the Rebels can compete effectively in the ground tussles, where they were eclipsed, and in the air with more forcefulness and presence they have a chance.
If Clare get the time and space they had the last day there will only be one winner.
