DONAL LENIHAN: Seldom has an opener been as important
While much of the focus this week has been on team selection, especially in Wales, one of the most important head-to-heads today takes place between the respective coaching boxes.
It has been well documented that Wales have won the last three encounters and a big factor in those games was the tactical edge secured by Warren Gatland and his coaches over their Irish counterparts. In the World Cup quarter-final in Wellington, Gatland identified Sean O’Brien, Stephen Ferris and Ronan O’Gara as the key Irish personnel. Stop them and you stop Ireland.
As a result, Ireland were denied the forward momentum they had taken for granted to that point. Consequently O’Gara received the ball on the back foot and, with the Welsh defending from the outside in, the Munster man was forced back inside and cut off from his outside backs.
In last season’s championship opener in Dublin, Wales again deployed the blitz defence to good effect and in addition with a number of injuries up front (similar to today), Wales refused to kick to touch, offering Ireland only two lineout throws in each half. Without a lineout platform to build from, Ireland’s attacking options were very limited.
Despite knowing in advance what was coming in those games, Ireland failed to deal with it. With Gatland now otherwise engaged on Lions duty and the pressure mounting on Rob Howley after a series of defeats under his watch, Declan Kidney, Gert Smal, Les Kiss and Anthony Foley must take advantage and reproduce the type of innovation and creativity that yielded seven tries against Argentina. Ireland have a distinct advantage in the coaches box on this occasion and will surely draw from those recent defeats by the Welsh. Kidney has often said you learn more in defeat than in victory. Now is the time to put those lessons to good effect.
Of Wales’s seven game lost recently, four came in the closing minutes to either a try or penalty. It happened three times against Australia alone. For a young side that showed little or no inhibitions at the World Cup, Wales have forgotten how to close out tight games and today’s encounter promises to be another of those. The message for the Irish players is simple. Even if you find yourself in arrears entering the closing stages, hang in there. Apply the pressure and Wales will crack.
Much has been made of the appointment of sports psychologist Enda McNulty to the Irish management team and this is one area where Kidney could see an immediate return. Wales are mentally brittle at present and Ireland need to exploit it. Sam Warburton had a dream start to his captaincy, taking over the reins on the eve of the World Cup when captain-elect Matthew Rees was forced out injured.
However Wales are now struggling, Warburton has been largely anonymous for Cardiff in the Rabo Direct and Heineken Cup and he is now coming under intense pressure from the Ospreys’ dynamic open side Justin Tupuric for his place. All of a sudden the cloak of invincibility around Warburton has slipped and he and Wales are vulnerable. Ireland must exploit that.
Ireland need to be mentally strong to win, to be positive and play with confidence. Wales are there for the taking. The one thing in Wales’ favour is they have become used to putting indifferent club form behind them on the international stage. That’s why Ireland need to chop them down to size from the outset and reinforce the doubts a number of Welsh players must be harbouring at the moment.
The injury to last season’s Six Nations player of the tournament Dan Lydiate has left Wales in a bit of a quandary. Many expected his absence, and that of Ryan Jones, to facilitate the accommodation of two open side flankers in the back row with Warburton and Tipuric lining out in tandem. Had Wales not suffered an injury crisis in the second row, that is exactly what would have happened. However Howley needed more line-out options and Aaron Shingler was selected to provide that option. This should work in Ireland’s favour even if there is every possibility Warburton and Tipuric will be reunited at some stage in the second half. With Sean O’Brien selected at No 7, Ireland are lacking an out-and-out fetcher which Wales will seek to exploit. If the contest develops into an open game with plenty ball on the deck, then Ireland could be in trouble.
Physically Wales have the bigger back line and they would much prefer a high tempo game, involving loads of broken field running, with the likes of George North, Alex Cuthbert, Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies running hard and straight at their Irish counterparts. Remember the power North displayed in Dublin last season when he smashed through Fergus McFadden before offloading to Davies for a crucial try in the second half?
To make sure that doesn’t happen Ireland need to smash Wales at the breakdown. Against South Africa and Argentina last November, Ireland blasted the opposition by committing numbers to the early rucks and mauls and not standing off. They must do the same today. The thing that stands out for me in the two most recent defeats to Wales was the passive nature of the defence in Dublin and the reluctance to engage the Welsh in a dogfight in Wellington where Roberts set the ground rules from the moment he flattened Donncha O’Callaghan with an early carry.
Ireland need to set a marker down early on by getting Mike McCarthy, Cian Healy, Sean O’Brien and Peter O’Mahony carrying ball with the support of at least two others to clean out and maintain forward momentum. Ireland must keep the ball off the deck and not allow Warburton and Tipuric work their magic. If they succeed in doing that then Ireland will win. If that Welsh back line are allowed play on their terms, then it could be a different story.
