Has Trap taken us as far as he can?
And, if that’s the case, the warning signs for the future are not good.
Because, really, that’s what this is all about: warnings, signposts, patterns and long-term trends. In the last few months, there’s no escaping the fact that Ireland have developed a few worrying ones.
Many, of course, will point to the result as the ultimate end to any argument.
The problem with this point of view, though, is that, in isolated instances, results don’t always fully represent reality. USA once beat England, Switzerland once beat Spain. Ireland, as we know, got a 0-0 draw in Moscow despite the defence being unravelled and the Russians creating umpteen chances.
Ultimately, that result didn’t reflect reality. The performance, however, did predict what was to come.
In that game in Moscow, the limits of Trapattoni’s rigid 4-4-2 were fully exposed as Russia’s more modern, more mobile midfield repeatedly outmanoeuvred Ireland’s back seven. Despite the team’s reputation for solidity, it was only a mix of magnificent individual performances and blind luck that prevented Russia scoring.
On any normal night, the result would have been wildly different. Those nights, ultimately, arrived in Poland with a vengeance. The warnings from Moscow were not heeded.
Worse, one of the long-term consequences of the Euros as regards Trapattoni’s reign might be that it fatally undermines any future attempts to rebuild that defensive strength.
In the lead-up to Poland, so much momentum and confidence was generated behind that unbeaten run and that remarkable defensive record. But, within an instant of the tournament starting — or, at the least, the three minutes it took Mario Mandzukic to score — all of that was wiped out; rendered irrelevant. An entire reputation was ruined. The solidity was shattered.
Can that confidence and mentality ever be as strong again?
Well, last night against Kazakhstan, it was certainly absent.
And, with the team’s defensive reliability apparently stripped away, it was as if many other aspects of the team had been eroded without that protection.
Certainly, it seemed as if other Trapattoni fundamentals were failing. For one, there were the set-pieces. Not only did Ireland fail to make the most of theirs with some atrocious deliveries, but that was also how they conceded the goal. “Little details” almost led to a big upset.
And it leads to a big question being asked: if the core strengths that Trapattoni imbued the team with to initially restore respectability on are now failing, what else does he offer?
Certainly, there’s not much variation in attack.
Against superior sides, Ireland’s attempts to create opportunities through long balls make a certain amount of sense. Against teams that are ranked 142nd in the world, though, it’s mind-boggling. Essentially, you’re bringing the game down to their level. You’re actively decreasing your chances of victory.
It was telling that, in the 89 minutes of misery that preceded Robbie Keane’s penalty, Ireland’s only promising attack came through a quick interchange at the edge of the box. Why didn’t we see more of that?
And, to return to San Marino 2007, this is the real worry. That game in Serravalle came perilously close to disaster because Steve Staunton had no shape, no structure, no plan.
By contrast, this game in Astana came perilously close to disaster precisely because Trapattoni’s plan, shape and structure were so rigid and predictable.
And that leads on to an even bigger question? Can that approach ever again be as efficient as it was before Euro 2012?
In the wider world of international football, managers of European teams last, on average, two years and 11 months.
That is generally the case because it is the organic end of a cycle, because there is a natural need to freshen up; older ideas can no longer be so effective.
Trapattoni has already gone against the general trend by lasting four years.
And, in that time, his team have started to develop some other troubling trends of their own.
