No halting new New Zealand
While Ireland bemoan the loss of key individuals in Paul O’Connell, Stephen Ferris, Tommy Bowe and Mike Ross, their hosts are in the midst of what for any other country would amount to a mini crisis.
A raft of their World Cup-winning panel including Brad Thorn, John Afoa, Mils Muliaina, Stephen Donald, Cory Jane, Isaia Toeava, Jerome Kaino, Anthony Boric and Colin Slade are either injured or retired. In addition Ma’a Nonu, Ali Williams, Piri Weepu and Jimmy Cowan are playing like drains while the key Crusaders trio of Richie McCaw, Kieran Reid and Dan Carter have had precious little game time of late due to injury. Getting your hopes up for a first Irish win over the New Zealand after 24 failed attempts over 107 years?
Don’t.
There’s a new batch of All Blacks due off the production line very soon with Ireland seen as the perfect guinea pigs to test their readiness for international rugby. Julian Savea, Aaron Smith and Brodie Retallick’s names may not mean much to you right now but that will change very soon.
With just seven survivors from the side that clinched the World Cup nine months ago, this New Zealand combination has a fresh look to it. Surprisingly the Irish side named by Declan Kidney yesterday has been selected with an eye to the future, which is no bad thing. That said the failure of Gordon D’Arcy or Andrew Trimble to make the bench is a big surprise. The side contains five of the Munster team thrashed 45-10 by the Ospreys at the Liberty Stadium last month and the decision to break up the Leinster half-back and midfield combination of Eoin Reddan, Jonny Sexton, Brian O’Driscoll and D’Arcy — given everything they have achieved this season — not only represents a gamble on Kidney’s part but will not help Ireland’s cohesion in attack either. O’Driscoll acknowledged prior to the tour that you cannot hope to beat New Zealand by playing a containment game and you had to be brave enough to attack them with ball in hand. That could prove more difficult now.
The conventional wisdom has it that if New Zealand are vulnerable then it is in their opening game. In addition it is very unusual to have a full round of Super 15 rugby on the weekend prior to a test, as they did last weekend, which must have impacted preparations. Scotland’s shock win over Australia last Tuesday, even if it was a predominantly second string Wallaby outfit, triggered caution within the All Black ranks as will the fact the squad are operating under new management for the first time in eight years.
None of this changes anything other than a New Zealand win tomorrow will come as a major shock. Despite the proven quality available to Steve Hanson behind the scrum in Carter, Sonny Bill Williams, Conrad Smith and Israel Dagg, the big concern is the sheer power and physicality New Zealand bring to the scrum and the breakdown. When Graham Henry returned home after his coaching sojourn in the northern hemisphere, he was shocked at how Super rugby had diluted the effectiveness of New Zealand at the set piece.
They were struggling with their scrum, line out and maul. He immediately set out to rectify those woes, recognising it would be impossible to reclaim a World Cup without those key attributes.
It took time but New Zealand now have a deep reservoir of quality prop forwards who pride themselves in scrummaging. When one considers that Ulster’s highly influential signing at tight head prop John Afoa, failed to make the bench for the World Cup final you begin to get the message.
Hanson will have noted Ireland’s scrum woes at Twickenham even before Mike Ross was injured and will target his inexperienced replacement Declan Fitzpatrick. It doesn’t help that the Ulster man has played only four games since last November due to injury and his chances of lasting the full eighty minutes at the pace New Zealand will play at are negligible.
This means Connacht’s Ronan Loughney will also win his first cap off the bench as he and Fitzpatrick will be put to the test by the vastly experienced Tony Woodcock.
While both are sure to be put under considerable pressure, this is one of the benefits of undertaking a series such as this as both props will learn more over the next three weeks than in a season of domestic rugby.
The problem for Ireland tomorrow is that without the totems of O’Connell, Ross and Ferris, the three pillars of their game will be severely compromised — the scrum, line out and breakdown. That is likely to result in a plentiful supply of quality ball for New Zealand and that is a frightening prospect.
On that basis alone, I was surprised that a place was not found for the towering presence of Leinster’s Devin Toner in the tour squad as he would guarantee line out ball and would also put pressure on New Zealand’s throw.
Their line out has been vulnerable for some time now — even if the 6’9” Retallick should make a difference here.
As they embark on a new four year cycle as world champions, it will be interesting to see whether they have been liberated or inhibited by that crown.
With so many talented young players coming through, this game could mark the launch of yet another All Black dynasty. Ireland are unlikely to stand in their way.
