Two out of three ain’t bad
Today: Aviva Stadium, 6pm
LITTLE to separate these two sides — whoever wins this contest should go on to win the tournament outright. Leicester are well versed in the art of knockout rugby and that makes them very dangerous. They know how to win tight games and despite playing away from home, they’ll stay patient and won’t be pressurised into playing a certain way.
However, Leinster have key advantages which extend beyond the venue. Defensively they have been outstanding and never seem to panic when the opposition are in possession. Keeping Munster tryless despite being under all kinds of pressure in the second half of last weekend’s Magners League clash underlines how good they are and how comfortable they feel about their defensive structure and organisation.
Central to that strategy are Brian O’Driscoll and Gordon D’Arcy in midfield. Leicester will attempt to use the massive frame of Alesana Tuilagi to suck in Leinster’s two best defenders and attempt to play from there. As Matt Banahan found out to his cost with England a few weeks ago, size makes no impression on this duo.
The other plus for Leinster is that, defensively, Leicester have been uncharacteristically vulnerable this season. Scoring tries has not posed them any problems — they have already registered 54 in 19 Premiership games — but they have got lazy in defence, especially around the fringes of the ruck and maul. In addition they have missed more tackles in the Aviva Premiership than any other side. One of their problems has been the tendency of the younger Tuilagi, Manu, to rush up in defence looking for the big hit. He doesn’t always make it. If the Tigers defensive line becomes fractured in midfield then there is no one better to take advantage than O’Driscoll.
Leicester will look to bash their hosts from the start and Leinster had better be ready. Jamie Heaslip is due a good one and this contest looks tailor made for Sean O’Brien. If Leinster can survive the physical assault then they have the ammunition in midfield and through Isa Nacewa from full back to prevail — but just about.
Today: Stadium Municipal, 1pm
THE word from central France is that Brive, after two wins on the trot in the French championship that should secure their place in the top flight for another season, can relax a little and enjoy this encounter. The fact that they also pushed mighty Toulouse to within a point away from home last month suggests that they are playing with a bit of badly needed confidence at the moment. Munster need to drain that from them quickly.
Munster’s reputation in Europe precedes them and Brive will be up for the challenge. A cursory glance at this season’s Six Nations media guide highlights just how big a challenge the French side face. In total, Munster had 15 players in Ireland’s squad for that tournament. By way of contrast, Brive had two, diminutive winger Alexis Palisson and centre Fabrice Estebanez — with not a forward in sight.
With the guts of a full international pack, Munster must set the ground rules early in this contest by displaying the same hunger and physicality in the set piece and contact area that characterised their second half performance against Leinster last Saturday. If Munster can dominate the early phases, launch their maul with the intent they displayed last Saturday against Leinster and allow Ronan O’Gara to run the show, Brive will realise early on that they are out of their depth.
However, if Munster offer their hosts an incentive and an invitation to play, then they will only be too willing to have a go. Any enthusiasm displayed by the hosts needs to be quelled early. If Munster can build a score and control matters in the opening half, they will make life so much easier for themselves. This is a day when Munster could easily become distracted. The team leaders need to draw on their vast experience of European competition and deliver a clinical, professional performance. With a home semi-final in the offing, O’Gara and co still have plenty to play for in Europe this season and will not want to experience two defeats on French soil in a row. Control the set piece, control the game.
Tomorrow: Milton Keynes, 2pm
IF the contest in Dublin is difficult to call with two very evenly matched sides, this quarter-final looks like Northampton’s to lose.
They look a better balanced side than Ulster with a strong scrum, an athletic, mobile and hard hitting back row along with two outstanding broken field runners in Ben Foden and Chris Ashton.
They also have the experience of contesting a Heineken Cup quarter-final as recently as last season when, even by their own admission, they learned a huge amount from their three games against Munster.
Ulster have no recent history at this stage and simply have to play with more tempo, physicality and tactical nous than anything we have seen from them recently.
The loss of Stephen Ferris will only be appreciated today and somebody else needs to grab the initiative and lead from the front.
Ulster need to play direct, control field position and strangle the Saints at half back where they look vulnerable.
At out-half, Northampton’s Stephen Myler is not only hot and cold when it comes to place kicking but offers little direction from the pivotal role.
He is the key for Ulster and they need to pressurise him and cut off the supply lines to their back three.
Ulster’s kicking game also needs to be spot on and any high kicks to the likes of Foden and Ashton need to arrive with Andrew Trimble or Simon Danielli in tow.
The odds are stacked against Ulster in this one but if they manage to rattle the home side early on, force them into a concession of penalties, which the excellent Ruan Pienaar will only be to willing to convert, and maintain the pressure for the full eighty minutes then they have a chance.
If the game is allowed to break up and becomes too loose then they will be in serious trouble.
