Now the World Cup numbers game begins
It has been that type of tournament, with every side harbouring regrets and if onlys. For many, with ultimate success looking very unlikely from the time that England demolished Italy 59-13 in round 2 (the problem with using points differential as a means of separating sides), the focus shifted onto maximising the return from each bruising contest with the World Cup in mind.
In many respects, Ireland finished the tournament strongest and in the best frame of mind for the preparation ahead of New Zealand. From the players’ perspective, August 22 becomes the key date, when Declan Kidney will announce the 30 players charged with attempting to deliver a first ever World Cup semi-final slot.
It rancours that we are the only one of the four home nations to progress that far and given the quality of player that has gone through the system over the last decade, that is a travesty.
To do so on this occasion almost certainly necessitates beating Australia in only the second game of this year’s tournament. That raises issues.
Despite the fact that Kidney has put an excellent sequence of four challenging games in place on successive Saturdays in August, I still feel the big three from the southern hemisphere will be more battle-hardened after their abbreviated Tri-Nations series that will finish just three weeks before the start of the Rugby World Cup.
With the best will in the world, most of the starting team that face Australia in that key game will probably have only had a maximum of four games — more likely three — behind them in 10 weeks. And realistically, what’s the chances there will be full-on games in training with the omnipresent risk of injury? Whatever way you slice and dice it, SANZAR nations have the advantage.
June 17 represents the cut-off point for the registration of a preliminary World Cup squad of 50 players but many within that group are set to be disappointed when the final cull is announced. It is hard to believe, given that they have toured with the Lions and won a Grand Slam, that players of the calibre of Jamie Heaslip, Luke Fitzgerald, Keith Earls, Rob Kearney, and Tommy Bowe have never played in a World Cup.
In addition, while Stephen Ferris made the squad in 2007, he failed to clock up any game time. It will also be a new experience for the likes of Tomás O’Leary, Cian Healy, Mike Ross and Sean O’Brien. That is quite a turnaround in personnel in four years.
Kidney’s squad is already taking shape with at least 25 certain to travel. While Ireland have only started 20 different players in this seasons Six Nations championship, Kidney is justified in his assertion that Ireland have a broader base of players entering a World Cup year than ever before. So who at this juncture looks certain to make the plane, and what way will Kidney lean in terms of the vital balance between forwards and backs — 16-14 or 17-13 respectively?
The front row: Ireland will bring five props, two specialists on the tight head and loose head sides and one with the facility to play both. In addition three hookers will be on board. At this stage Cian Healy, Mike Ross and Tom Court look certain to travel, with Court the one entrusted with the versatility role. That said, I am not convinced about his ability to survive at tight head and that was even before he looked decidedly uncomfortable replacing Ross on Saturday. Ulster would also seem to be of that opinion as they have recently confirmed the signing of All Black John Afoa to replace the Munster-bound BJ Botha.
That leaves two positions open, with Tony Buckley and the recently-returned Marcus Horan fighting for those. The wild cards are Connacht’s Brett Wilkinson and Jamie Hagan. This World Cup looks like being a step too far for the great John Hayes.
At hooker, Rory Best and Sean Cronin have earned their slots, while Jerry Flannery’s place is dependent on how fast he can accumulate some game time. If he doesn’t make it, then a door opens for Damien Varley, with Denis Fogarty an outside bet.
The second row: this appears is very straightforward in that Paul O’Connell, Donncha O’Callaghan and Leo Cullen are in but there is a debate whether Ireland will bring a fourth second row (which would be the norm) or whether a ‘floater’ will occupy this role. It has been suggested to me that Mick O’Driscoll, despite his excellent form for Munster, has already been told he is unlikely to travel as the Irish management are looking for someone with the facility to cover both the second and back rows.
That would go some way towards explaining why Connacht’s uncapped Mike McCarthy was included in recent Irish squads and why Leinster were asked to play Kevin McLaughlin in the second row against Aironi last month.
Donnacha Ryan is also an obvious contender to satisfy that requirement.
Elsewhere David Wallace, Heaslip, O’Brien, Ferris and Denis Leamy make up a really powerful break away unit with Shane Jennings or possibly Rhys Ruddock also in the running if the floating option is dispensed with. Either way, some serious talent in this sector is set to lose out.
I suspect Ireland will go with the option to include 17 forwards, which means the competition behind the scrum is set to be even tighter. The half backs pick themselves at this stage, with O’Leary, Eoin Reddan and Peter Stringer leading the charge but Isaac Boss could also make a case for inclusion. I have been very impressed with him this season while Jonny Sexton and Ronan O’Gara will continue to drag the best out of each other for the No 10 jersey.
Paddy Wallace looks set to travel to a third consecutive World Cup without ever securing a regular starting position as Kidney favours him to cover an injury to either of the frontline out halves given that you must have two No 10s in a match day squad. The other option is to use Geordan Murphy to cover that role but that appears unlikely.
Brian O’Driscoll is set to become not only the first Irish player to appear in four World Cups but also the first to lead Ireland in two tournaments. He seems to be breaking records at will and will achieve another when he next lines out in midfield for Ireland with his long-term partner Gordon D’Arcy, who will also be in New Zealand. On Saturday they equalled the record of 44 tests as a centre partnership for their country set by Will Carling and Jerry Guscott.
That leaves just five slots — or a maximum of six if the management opt for 14 backs — between Fergus McFadden, Bowe, Fitzgerald, Kearney, Earls, Andrew Trimble, Shane Horgan and Geordan Murphy.
Injury, of course, will play a part but if all those players are still standing by August 22, Ireland will have a serious squad to compete with.
