No obvious pacemaker could make Tingle Creek a lottery
There may be only five runners - Mahogany Blaze doesn’t have a realistic chance - but this has the makings of a cracker and there are definitely four possibilities.
I feel it’s a contest which could be very messy and tactics are likely to play a major part. The problem is, I simply cannot see what will make the running.
Mahogany Blaze is in to try to get a share of the prize money and it seems unlikely will be allowed bowl along.
I cannot imagine Barry Geraghty going on aboard Big Zeb or Tony McCoy on Forpadydeplasterer. That leaves Well Chief and Timmy Murphy and Twist Magic.
Well Chief can be free and, perhaps, Timmy will roll away. I’d say Timmy would prefer a lead, however.
I don’t want to make the running, so it may be a case of making it up as you go. I know punters hate this type of contest and the word farcical will get a fair airing if our worst fears are realised.
But, believe it or not, I enjoy these races. You cannot beat a lively battle of wits to light up a dull Saturday!
Twist Magic is a good horse when on song and loves Sandown. He won the Tingle Creek in 2007 and was bombing behind Master Minded when falling in the race last year.
He made a promising return at Exeter recently when a creditable third to Planet Of Sound, conceding plenty of weight all round.
I know Well Chief won nicely at Cheltenham - Master Minded was below-par then - but I didn’t think that rode much of a race.
Big Zeb is the one I fear the most and he’s highly regarded by Barry Geraghty. He gave Master Minded a right fright at the Punchestown Festival in April.
Maybe Master Minded wasn’t quite at his best that day either, but the Punchestown race rode a far better contest than Well Chief’s at Cheltenham.
Nycteos, with a grand weight of 10-4, has a chance in the first, a handicap hurdle. This will really be his first outing of the season, he and I went our separate ways at the second at Newbury eight days ago.
He’s obviously fragile, not having been seen prior to that since scoring at Kempton in January of last year.
I’m hoping for a good run, because I gather his target after this may be the Paddy Power at Leopardstown at Christmas.
My reading of the Grade 2 novice chase is that Tchico Polos is up against it, even if there are only four runners.
He won nicely at Exeter, but seemed to get a freebie and this is a far harder task taking on, for instance, Crack Away Jack, who was fourth in the Champion Hurdle.
I’m also more hopeful than confident about my two other rides of the day, Pepite De Soleil and Hoo La Baloo.
I’m on Barker in the John Durkan at Punchestown tomorrow and this seems desperately competitive, even with only five runners. Tell me which one of the five can’t win?
I can’t even be sure I’m on the right one of Willie Mullins’. His other runner, J’Vole, is far from a no-hoper.
Aran Concerto is classy and In Compliance came back well to win at Thurles, although Joncol may just lack the pace to score. Bottom line is that there are surely easier puzzles for punters to solve this weekend.
I don’t ride in the first two races and begin my day for my father on Colbert Station in a handicap hurdle. You’d have to say he was disappointing at Punchestown last time, but all hope isn’t lost.
Citizen Vic is an each-way in the beginners chase. He is a massive big horse and jumping fences was always going to be his game.
He ran well for a long way behind Jered at Punchestown, but just got tired. Citizen Vic will be fitter now and I’ll be looking for a better effort.
I ride Southern Vic, also for my father, in a handicap chase. He hasn’t run since finishing eighth in the Grand National at Aintree and two and a half miles is on the short side.
And just a word about Denman, following that incredible weight-carrying performance when winning the Hennessy at Newbury a week ago.
Tremendous leaps five out and four out and again at the last - which he jumped as if it was the first - were a big help. I was surprised, amazed and delighted.
I really wish, though, all the speculation as to what I will ride in the Gold Cup would end, at least for a number of months.
I have a bad record when it comes to injuries and who knows if I will even make the Festival. Right now, I’m not thinking beyond today.
It’s the same with Denman and Kauto Star and there’s no guarantee either of them will arrive at Cheltenham.
Talking about who is going to ride what, at a meeting so far away, is just a total waste of time and energy.
