Donal Lenihan: Irish efficiency can defy French stardust as world watches
STARDUST: French captain Antoine Dupont has the stardust required to turn the tide on a losing cause. Pic: PA
Never before have the number one and two ranked sides in World Rugby met in a Six Nations contest. If that indicates a shift north from the traditional powerhouses in the southern hemisphere, it’s a theory that will be tested to the full at the World Cup next autumn.
SIX NATIONS RUGBY CHAMPIONSHIP 2025
Your home for the latest news, views and analysis of this year's Six Nations Championship from our award winning sports team.
SIX NATIONS RUGBY CHAMPIONSHIP 2025
Your home for the latest news, views and analysis of this year's Six Nations Championship from our award winning sports team.
What it does reflect is a Six Nations tournament that is becoming increasingly competitive, as the French found out when visiting Rome last weekend. Saturday’s eagerly awaited contest in Dublin will tell us a lot.
Did the French take their eye off the ball at the Stadio Olimpico on Sunday, with their minds really set on an encounter at the Aviva Stadium that could have far-reaching consequences, not just for the outcome of this tournament, but leading into a potential quarter-final clash between Ireland and France in Paris next October?
What we have on Saturday is two titans of the modern game, both hell-bent on laying a psychological marker in advance of the World Cup. The French are on a 14-game winning streak that encompasses last season's Grand Slam and victories over Australia and South Africa in November.
Ireland have won 18 of their last 20 test matches, the only defeats coming at the hands of New Zealand, in Auckland last June, and to this French team in the corresponding fixture at the Stade de France last February.
Andy Farrell has enjoyed success against every major nation since taking over from Joe Schmidt with one notable exception. After three outings against the French, he is still waiting for a first win. Ireland’s game continues to evolve, which is just as well given the crazy situation that sees teams currently ranked numbers one, four and five in the world - Ireland, South Africa and Scotland - all together in Pool B at the World Cup.
Despite that unbeaten run, the French have not been at their brilliant best of late, even before digging themselves out of a hole against the Italians last weekend. In the recent autumn series, they were tested to the full by Australia before securing a 30-29 win and pushed all the way by an understrength South African side before emerging 30-26 winners. Then again, Ireland needed a last-gasp penalty from Ross Byrne to secure their win over the Wallabies.
The biggest difference with this French squad since Fabian Galthie and Shaun Edwards came on board is that those were games they would have lost in the past. Saturday's encounter is likely to be another one-score match. We will find out quickly if last weekend’s tepid performance in Rome was an aberration in the knowledge that this titanic tussle on Saturday was already on the horizon.
Ireland’s propensity to consistently deliver quick ball at the breakdown is becoming a major point of difference. Statistics confirmed that 70 per cent of Ireland’s ruck ball in Cardiff was recycled in less than three seconds.
Teams know in advance that so much of Ireland’s game plan is predicated around achieving it but, in the vast majority of cases and despite their best efforts, have been unable to slow down that crucial supply line. When it does happen - on those rare occasions in Europe when the vast majority of this squad have been in Leinster colors - the consequences are there for all to see.
This French side falls into the category of those carrying the monstrous physicality up front that has discommoded Irish teams, at provincial and national level, in the past. They have the physical resources, both starting and from the bench, to turn the gain line battle and the quest to generate front-foot ball, into trench warfare.
Leading the charge in succeeding where the Welsh failed miserably in Cardiff will be Edwards, the massively influential defence coach. Speaking last week, former Welsh captain Sam Warburton offered an interesting glimpse into the defensive mindset the former rugby league great developed in their national squad.
In order to stop the Irish generating the type of carrying momentum that led to two tries in the opening minutes in Cardiff, Edwards places massive emphasis on developing what he calls a “first three phase mentality”.
He demands hostile and aggressive tackles - what he labels “intelligent aggression” - in the knowledge that if you win the contact battle on the first three carries and prevent the opposition from crossing the gain line then, more often than not, the opposition No 10 will drop into the pocket and kick into the backfield.
Ireland have developed their technique when carrying into contact in order to cope with the greater physical presence teams like France, South Africa and England usually carry into battle. They attack space, soft shoulders, instead of running head-on into bigger physical specimens. Farrell knows that France will be primed for those initial three carries on Saturday as they seek to succeed where Wales failed.
The renewed focus on players staying on their feet and supporting their own body weight in contact resulted in a higher-than-usual penalty count for all teams last weekend but the French were the worst offenders with a whopping 18 penalties conceded.
They cannot afford to repeat that against Ireland as it will lead to easy entries into their 22. Ireland were clinical on that front last weekend with an average return of 3.44 points from nine visits to the Welsh 22 compared to the Welsh return of just .83 points from 12 entries.
If the French fail to address their discipline and reduce the penalty count appreciably, creating cheap access into the scoring zone, Ireland’s highly impressive conversion rate will punish the visitors even further. As a result, I expect France will kick even more than they have been doing recently to keep Ireland as far away from their goal line as possible.
France will be very conscious of the way Ireland have sprinted out of the blocks in their most recent tests and their propensity to score early. That will be reinforced by what happened in Cardiff when Ireland raced into a 14-point lead over the first 10 minutes.
France succeeded in reversing that trend in Paris last season and will be hell-bent on doing the same this time out. As a result, expect a lot of kicking early on. For all their attacking brilliance, this French side kick the ball a hell of a lot and put massive pressure on the kick chase.
Galthie and Edwards have succeeded in getting this group to work much harder off the ball than their immediate predecessors who were lazy by comparison. In Hugo Keenan Ireland have a colossus covering the backfield and his work, in tandem with Mack Hansen and James Lowe, will be crucial on Saturday.
France will also go after the Irish scrum in the knowledge that the Irish front row resources have been depleted by the loss to injury of Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong and Cian Healy. Dave Kilcoyne and Tom O'Toole will be required to put in a massive shift when called upon in the final quarter.
In a game as tight as this is likely to be, the deciding factor is often moments of individual brilliance as with that incredible drop goal at the death from Johnny Sexton back in 2018. Last year, after a very poor start, Ireland were dragged back into the contest courtesy of an outstanding piece of individual skill when rookie Mack Hansen plucked the ball out of the skies from a restart, under the noses of the giant French forwards, before sprinting to the corner to offer Ireland a way back into the contest.
French captain Antoine Dupont is another with the stardust required to turn the tide on a losing cause. France probably have more of those type of players in Damien Penaud, Gael Fickou, Gregory Alldritt and reserve No 10 Matthieu Jalibert, all capable of providing moments of inspirational genius when the need is greatest.
So many individual battles, so many key confrontations, not least in the back row between two incredible units. Caelan Doris and Josh Van Der Flier were immense last week but will need to be even better this time out.
Home advantage counts for something and might just be enough to see Ireland home. That said, the margins between these two outstanding teams are minuscule. The rugby world is watching this one.
