Ronan O'Gara: Five points for Ireland will spook edgy French
SMILES BETTER: James Lowe goes over to score his side's first try at Twickenham.
THERE’S a weather phenomenon that occurs annually in France that turns the sky in these parts a deep shade of orange for a few days in March. The meteorological service calls it and it is caused by particles of sand from the Sahara Desert being picked up on the wind and blown over the country.
It has been especially visible over the west of France on Wednesday, most notably Bordeaux and here in La Rochelle, before moving north yesterday. The chances of it depositing its hazy film over the Stade de France on Saturday night appear slim, but that hasn’t assuaged the naval-gazing and anxiety that lingers over the capital ahead of Le Crunch and the final weekend of the Six Nations championship.
Five points for Ireland against Scotland at the Aviva Stadium will help to further rattle the French.
There was enough about the 14-man England performance last Saturday at Twickenham to remind Fabien Galthie and his players that everything they will earn Saturday night, from the first maul to a potential grand slam, will be ferociously contested.
The biggest obstacle to Ireland’s championship prospects is the callow feel of England’s backline. There are too many inexperienced and unproved players to trouble France – not in the bigger picture sense of building towards 2023, but for the now - Paris on Saturday night. Eddie Jones is focusing primarily on the construction of a squad for the World Cup. There were clear indications last Saturday that right now, Ireland’s priority is championship.
England have changed things up in the back three by naming Freddie Steward on the wing and George Furbank at full-back for the climax to the tournament. Were England to pitch Randall or Youngs alongside Marcus Smith and complement that with Farrell and Tuilagi in the centre, Elliot Daly at full-back, Anthony Watson and Michael Lynagh’s young lad, Louis, on the wings, then you have a very different sort of back line to provide France with a real gut-check.
In these columns, we have alluded to the under-recognised value of playing at home in test rugby. It will provide a leg-up to France Saturday night, though perhaps not as much as it did for England’s fourteen men against Ireland. Had that circumstance arisen at the Aviva Stadium, put your hat on Ireland winning by fifty points. And I don’t say that flippantly.
With the crowd inspiring England, and vice versa, the players defended to an optimum level. With the ball, England drove it, kicked it in the air, chased and tackled. It was a rudimentary as it gets, bordering on pre-historic rugby. What cannot be lost is the level to which Ireland helped England by playing too loosely. By not controlling the ball, by not being wiser with their game management, Ireland persistently and frustratingly, continued to reach down into the foxhole and pull England up.
DROP CAP
People have said Ireland were too ambitious. I’d prefer to say Ireland were far too inaccurate with the ball, forever looking for the extra phase that wasn’t there, and knocking the ball on with the consequential scrum problems. Then penalty to England, march up the pitch 50m, drive a maul, slow it down, kick it, and keep the crowd involved.
It isn’t nuclear physics. When I was still reading rugby comic strips, the first lesson I was taught was if you have a kick off against New Zealand, check where Jonah Lomu is and kick to the other side.
As soon as Ireland sensed they were in bother with the referee at scrum time, it demanded that they change tack to some degree. Kick the ball, turn fourteen-man England and smother them. Give them nothing to cling onto.
It crossed my mind that Ireland were persisting with the offload game with a greater vision at play, that they were hot-housing stuff for next year and suffering the consequences on the day. Unfortunately, that didn’t stack up when it came to minutes at out half. That Johnny Sexton played 79 minutes is fantastic for him and his confidence to see a full game out, but it wasn’t great for Ireland in the medium to long term. Joey Carbery played for 40 seconds and never touched the ball. The camera panned to him behind the final Ireland lineout, and he looked like a lost soul.
With the championship still alive, there’s no doubt Ireland will select Sexton for Saturday. From the outside, it looks like it will be Jonny all the way unless or until he breaks down. Two things to deduce from that: Ireland are better with him on the pitch and for a long-time last Saturday when the game was in the balance, Andy Farrell wasn’t happy to take Jonny out. There are any number of ways to interpret that sequence, but it’s a safe conclusion that Carbery hasn’t earned management’s full trust as yet. Wherever Jones and England are with their periodisation, Ireland are operating in the here and now for another weekend.
Then the debate moves to New Zealand in the summer, where Carbery has to play at least two of the test matches.
The out-half dynamic was Ireland in microcosm last Saturday – everybody got a bit distracted by 80 frantic minutes at Twickenham and didn’t really adjust to what was in front of them.
Once the championship is done, we will all have a full picture to consider the winners and losers. For Ireland, there have been a share of positives, from Hugo Keenan’s fantastic form at 15, to the deepening chart at wing, bolstered by the form of Andrew Conway and James Lowe. So much of the Leinster man’s form is associated with confidence, a perfect example of Catt, O’Connell, Farrell and Easterby getting to know the person, to know what buttons to push to get the best out of a talent. Lowe has always looked at ease in the Leinster set up, now he looks comfortable with Ireland and one gets the sense he is adding to the group environment too.
Conor Murray had his best impact in two years last Saturday, to remind some of what he can bring at any given moment in a game. It is important for him that he finishes the championship with a positive impact again against Scotland tomorrow.
England, with their powerhouses, would be so different a proposition Saturday night in Paris, but how they perform against this France side is the most intriguing storyline of the final weekend. It would be nice to see Ireland slip through and claim the Six Nations but realistically, if conditions are helpful, France could win with the bonus point.
The complication at my end will be getting to a television screen at Toulon’s Stade Mayol, where La Rochelle are on Top 14 duty. In our own little orbit, it is the most important eighty minutes of the season. We are looking to climb up to third place with a victory. But Toulon are fighting for their lives at the wrong end of the table.
The former president of Toulon, Mourad Boudjellal, has gone and has been replaced by Bernard Lemaître. Before anyone thinks that the tap has been turned off - Boudjellal has switched his attention to football, and a side in the fourth tier of the French league – Toulon still have Cheslin Kolbe, Eben Etzebeth, Baptiste Serin, Facunda Isa, Charlies Ollivon and Sergio Parisse in their ranks – and they have signed Ihaia West, Danny Priso and Mathieu Tanguy from our club for next season.
With four more points, our Top 14 position would look solid. Without them we are looking over our shoulder at those outside the top six, including Toulouse, who will have their legion of French internationals back shortly.
That’s a chill wind for everyone.
