Donal Lenihan: France game will show where Ireland's World Cup preparations stand
When Ireland and France beat New Zealand on successive weekends last November, the rugby world sat up and took notice. It wasnât the victories of themselves that captured the attention of rugby fans worldwide, it was their manner and the quality of performances.
If anything France were even more convincing than the 40-25 scoreline in a victory that showcased a resilience and confidence that we hadnât seen from France for a long time. Both camps will acknowledge that New Zealand were on their last legs after an incredibly demanding period that had seen them away from home for almost twelve weeks, confined to Covid bubbles in Australia for the duration of the Rugby Championship, and on tour in the USA, Wales, Ireland, Italy and France.
Todayâs fascinating encounter at the Stade de France offers a true test of where these two highly impressive teams sit. Ireland are chasing a 10th win on the bounce but, due to Covid, seven of those tests were played in the familiar surroundings of Lansdowne Road while the two away wins, against Italy and Scotland, were housed in empty stadia in Rome and Edinburgh.
Not only do Ireland meet the best prepared French side we have seen for some time - bear in mind they have won the last two Six Nations outings between the sides in Dublin and Paris - this is the first time this newly-constructed Irish side has played away from home in front of a capacity crowd since losing 24-12 to England in Twickenham almost two years ago.
In tandem with getting their act together on the field, itâs clear the rugby mad French public has got behind this exciting new generation which boasts the games leading player in captain Antoine Dupont. The inspirational manner with which the capacity crowd sang âLa Marseillaiseâ in appalling conditions last Sunday was an expression of that support.
They will be even more passionate this evening. A number of this Irish team have yet to experience just how influential home advantage can be in this tournament and will be a lot wiser after this experience.
On top of that, their talismanic leader Johnny Sexton wonât be there to pull any last minute irons out of the fire. When it comes to assessing where his back up No 10âs in Joey Carbery and Jack Carty stand right now, Andy Farrell will be a far wiser man at the end of what promises to be an enthralling contest.
The fact that the French havenât won a Six Nations title since 2010 seems incredible and itâs clear that, having finished in the runners up slot in the last two campaigns, this highly talented and ambitious group of want silverware this season.
The fact that Ireland represent the biggest obstacle in that quest means todayâs contest becomes a must-win event for France. Letâs see how they cope with that level of expectation against an Irish team capable of matching their strengths in every facet of the game but having to cope with the withdrawal of their inspirational captain.
This French team, not unlike Ireland, is all about keeping the ball alive, staying on their feet and playing out of the tackle. They have rediscovered the traditional flair and brilliant broken field running that their storied predecessors, the likes of Serge Blanco, Philippe Sella, Patrice Lagisquet, Jean-Baptiste Lafond and Denis Charvet, produced at will in the amateur era.
Running parallel with that traditional majesty, is the age old respect for the scrum and its importance as a vehicle to suck the life out of the opposition and inflict a mortal wound on confidence.
I can just see their manager, former captain and hooker Raphael Ibanez, berating the French trio of Cyril Baille, Julien Marchand and Uini Atonio about how their Irish counterparts Andrew Porter, Ronan Kelleher and Tadhg Furlong are seen as the most complete front row unit in the game at present.
La Rochelleâs giant tight head Atonio wonât lose any time in reminding his teammates of the destruction his club pack inflicted on their Leinster counterparts - five of whom line out up front for Ireland today - when they met in last seasons Champions Cup semi final.
The big difference since then is that Porter, a reserve tight head for Furlong that day, has been reinvented as a loose head prop with incredible success. The scrum remains a key tenet of any French side and this unit has been dominant without being overly destructive in their recent campaigns.
A retreating scrum is something this French side just doesnât countenance. That represents an opportunity for Ireland. The key is in remaining rock solid on their own feed, as the have been since Porter switched sides, and in recognising opportunities to do damage on the French feed when they present themselves. If Ireland can attack a key psychological strength of their game and generate even a slight nudge forward, the impact will be huge.
Irelandâs line out since Paul O Connell came on board has been a model of consistency with numerous options and plenty of variety in terms of structure and personnel to aim at. The maul has also proved a vital source of go forward ball and a launch pad for attacking power plays.
While France have a monstrous pack, their close-in driving maul looked poorly coordinated against Italy and didnât inflict the damage one might have expected. Theyâll have looked to rectify this in training during the week but if Ireland can nullify their drives early on by forcing the maul towards the touch line, another attacking weapon will be blunted.
Thatâs easier said than done as, I expect, this French pack, especially with six forwards set to be drip fed off the bench from the 50 minutes mark on, will come out with all guns blazing as they attempt to cut off Irelandâs ball supply at source in order to stop the visitors building any semblance of continuity and dominance in the collisions.
Irelandâs attacking shape was excellent against Wales, forcing the Welsh to become very narrow in defence which created multiple opportunities in the wide five metre channels for Mack Hansen and Andrew Conway. Creating line breaks and mismatches in the middle third of the field enables you to get a foothold in the scoring zone in the opposition twenty two. What happens when you get there is what really matters.
Despite their attacking excellence last weekend, Irelandâs conversion rate from their visits to the twenty two needs to improve for the simple reason that they will be so much harder to generate. French defence coach Shaun Edwards has set a premium all week in his charges minimising Irelandâs opportunities to get any foothold in their half of the field.
Irelandâs decision-making in traffic and calmness under pressure was exemplary last weekend. One of the main reasons for that was Sextonâs ability to orchestrate his own players and manipulate the opposition. With so many Leinster players around him, coupled with his encyclopedic knowledge of the game plan and play book he was in total control.
Itâs going to be a big ask of Carbery to lead the line with the same level of authority but he has attributes, like his speed off the mark, that Sexton no longer possesses. This is Carberyâs moment to shine and the fact that itâs in a game as pivotal as this will tell us a lot about his ability to challenge the captain for that starting shirt between now and the next World Cup.
Sexton is a loss but it was inevitable that Ireland would find themselves in this position at some stage. With or without him, this was always going to be a monumental game and a seminal moment on that World Cup journey. Sextonâs absence tips the balance in favour of the home side but only if this young French side have the game management smarts to capitalise on the game-breaking moments that so often tip the scales in matches as tight as this one is likely to be.
