Ronan O'Gara: Peering through the haze of Irish euphoria
Joey Carberry watches his penalty kick drop through the posts against New Zealand. Ireland have a lot to be proud of but there’s a long way to go before the World Cup.
It isn't necessarily the prospect of back-to-back Test defeats — that happened only a year ago with Australia and Argentina — but for many other peculiarly New Zealand reasons, Saturday night’s France-All Blacks game in Paris has a very important feel about it.
All Blacks coach Ian Foster has been getting it in the neck back home after the defeat to Ireland, from the security of his own position to the lack of subtlety in their game to questions over the very fabric of how the All Blacks play rugby.
And all for the want of a forward pass to Akira Ioane late in the day at the Aviva.
Seem unfair? Maybe not. You can employ statistics any which way you please, but this was only the second time in 36 Test matches that an All Blacks side leading at half time failed to seal the deal. They made 224 tackles at the Aviva on Saturday, Ireland made 96. They were as poor with the ball as I can remember. And the penny is dropping that Super Rugby is no longer an appropriate crucible for the mega intensity of international Test rugby.
It’s understandable that some of that will come back to Ian Foster, who was part of Steve Hansen’s management team before. Of course, when there is someone with Scott Robertson’s CV in the background, plus the fact that Razor applied for and was overlooked when replacing Hansen, then the ground underneath is always going to feel unstable. There will be questions and an awkward summer for the All Blacks, even with a victory Saturday night.
With so many Crusaders players involved with New Zealand, it’s facile to look at Scott Robertson’s Super Rugby record and point to the players he has at his disposal in Christchurch, but he inspires. He has a good vision of the game, he is a maverick and brings huge energy to any setup. New Zealand are on the road since August, there has to be a fatigue factor but from my corner of the world, the All Blacks looked stale, flat and almost going through the motions in Dublin, which is an awful thing to say. It’s also something I never believed I would write.
The questions being asked in New Zealand this week are legitimate issues. Who are the definite starters now? Is that uncertainty a good thing? So many of the New Zealand backs (Will Jordan apart) were so average last weekend. Richie Mo’unga, who I am an avowed fan of, was like he was playing in a daze. I’m not sure what has robbed his mojo but when you see him with the Crusaders, he takes on the line eight times and makes five line breaks. Did he attempt one in Dublin? I was galled by the All Blacks inaccuracy, I don’t see Rieko Ioane as a 13, Sevu Reece struggled hugely, and the passing just wasn’t on point. Jordan is brilliance in black and could be the guy to chase down Dougie Howlett’s try-scoring record.
I know from my time there that New Zealand are trying to change a century of tradition defensively in terms of philosophy. That will take a bit. What do people do when pressure comes on? They revert to type and you could see that against Ireland. But the big issue remains defending the man and not the ball. It allowed Ireland move them around with ease. Whether it’s soccer, GAA, tennis or rugby, there is one ball on the field. There’s so much wasted energy in focusing in on the man only. If you can keep the ball in the corner of your eye, you have a double advantage. Anton Lienert Brown and Rieko Ioane were constantly caught man-watching by as Ireland looped around the corner.
In top level sport, the margins are small. Come Wednesday of this week, when the haze of euphoria has passed in the Irish camp, they should ponder the fact that only for a marginal forward pass and a midfield stop and wrap from James Lowe, the All Blacks could have pinched that game.
That’s not being a killjoy. There are copious good takeaways for Ireland. They got their emotional pitch incredibly right. We seem to be in a great place mentally for these autumn internationals forever and a day. It’s not the right time of the season to be peaking obviously, but their hunger and energy levels, their body language, compared to New Zealand’s was remarkably different.
Losing 10-5 after a first half when they could barely catch a break, tell the truth — were you fearing Ireland would crumble mentally? They didn’t. They won the second half convincingly 24-10 but it says so much about New Zealand’s ability to hang in there that it was a six-point game up to Carbery’s last kick.
We had a dry ball against Japan and New Zealand and these are home games; Ireland should expect to win their home games, even against New Zealand, because if you are not beating the All Blacks in Dublin in November, you have no chance next summer down there.
If you want to be growing as a team, you park last Saturday and move it on. There’s Argentina to come and then the Six Nations. Eight games in total, seven of them are losable — playing Scotland and Wales at home is no picnic, there are trips to France and England and then New Zealand away three times. If you need something to sharpen the mind, there you have it. Let’s see where Ireland are at the end of June.
Even then, there are still 16 months to the 2023 World Cup. It’s impossible to take either to tour to NZ or the 2023 World Cup in isolation. The tour is now folded into the cycle leading up to France, but they will go there looking to win a Test series — the first ever by Ireland. The myth that it’s a final opportunity to blood some new talent is facile and outdated. If you are not on the radar for Andy Farrell in the top 45 players in the country now, you are not going to be going to the World Cup.
Even in that, there might be, potentially, one bolter. Management has them all tagged at this stage and are monitoring them very closely. The depth chart of Irish rugby might go down to 5 x 15 (75 players) but from No’s 75 down to 40, you are talking The Outsiders. Everything inside 40 is looking to get on the plane.
The chat in France this week about Ireland has been instructive. Caelan Doris, the speed for that second half try was astonishing. That was Codie Taylor he went inside, and the Crusader is a really good player. There was some amount of finishing in that try.
I liked that James Lowe performance. If he can get his D solid, he has a weapon of a left foot and his prowess as an attacker is justified. Keith Earls didn’t start and there was no Larmour, Stockdale or Zebo. There’s nice competition bubbling beneath the radar.
“Wow, Andrew Porter”, the folk around here were asking me Monday. They weren’t alone. I had been struggling to see what the hype was about but the Leinster prop was unbelievable in his 76 minutes.
It was an important day too for Joey Carbery, though it appears to have slipped under the radar. Coming in as a replacement with 20 to go, kicks his first one cold and a second from 50m out. There were a lot of psychological obstacles he might have succumbed to on that high-pressure stage — not least a body that’s been compromised for some time — but he did the business. I was impressed, it was a big day for him.
Ronan Kelleher had his best game for Ireland. But he is always getting pinged for that double shift on the disallowed try. He knows that, or at least he should. In a Test match that will get called every time. It’s one of the penalties World Rugby is hot on, to the point where, as coaches, we have all received graphics on the subject. Beware wounded All Blacks in Paris. This is a huge night in both camps.
President Macron popped into the French camp to wish them well this week. Galthie’s players have under-performed against Argentina and Georgia, so there’s a tiny bit of frustration here in the media. Ntamack is at back at 10, with Danty at 12, and they have selected a lot of athletic players and ball carriers in the pack. New Zealand will summon one big, final performance on the tour but it will come up shy, I suspect. The France coach can’t copy and paste the Irish performance into the Stade de France on Saturday night but he has players who can cause similar problems to the All Blacks.
I hope I haven’t come across as negative here towards Ireland’s win. But there’s no future in cheerleading. The level of performance by New Zealand at the Aviva has the guardians of the game down there fretting. Feeling depowered, decisions with ball in hand, throwing passes behind each other, garryowens up to nowhere. Sweet mother of Mary.
That’s why Saturday night in Paris carries a disproportionate significance.
