Donal Lenihan: Now is the time for Andy Farrell to gamble on youth

CAUGHT YOU: Harry Byrne attempts to escape Conor Murray during Ireland squad training, ahead of the clash with Japan. The biggest selection conundrum for coach Andy Farrell surrounds the perennial issue of who is best placed to cover Johnny Sexton. Picture: Dan Sheridan

The countdown has started. The main protagonists have begun to make their moves.

Anyone watching the Rugby Championship, the southern hemisphere’s equivalent of the Six Nations with rounds three to six hosted exclusively by Australia due to Covid in a series of double headers last September, couldn’t help but notice the amount of fresh talent being introduced to top level competition by the respective coaches.

It will not have gone unnoticed by Warren Gatland and his British and Irish Lions touring party that their recent conquerors, South Africa, finished third in the table behind the winners New Zealand and a rapidly improving Australia.

Ireland coach Andy Farrell will also have noted the significance of this given the Springboks are in Ireland’s pool at the 2023 World Cup in France, now less than two years away.

In terms of preparation for that event, the perennial challengers from down south have stolen a march on those north of the equator by exposing a plethora of new blood to the white heat of top-class international rugby. Even Argentina, who finished bottom of the pile without a win from their six championship outings, managed to unearth a few gems.

With that in mind, I watched the announcement of Farrell’s latest Irish squad for the forthcoming tests against Japan, New Zealand and Argentina with interest. Perhaps more revealing than the squad itself was the admission by captain Johnny Sexton that, in a radical departure from his experiences in the lead in to the 2011, 2015, and 2019 tournaments, the management are openly approaching this series of games with the next World Cup the driving force behind their preparation and decision making process.

I’ll be very interested to see what influence, if any, that longer term focus has on selection. In the past, especially when it came to the Six Nations Championship, everything was geared towards the next game, every selection driven by short-term thinking.

In that we are noticeably different from many of the top nations who continually tweak their teams, even in the cut and thrust of the Rugby Championship, with a view towards testing their less experienced players and investing in the future.

England head coach Eddie Jones has taken this approach even further with the controversial decision to omit recent Lions tourists Jamie George and Mako Vunipola, Mako’s brother Billy and high-flying Leicester Tigers out-half George Ford — currently playing the best rugby of his career — in an attempt to empower the younger generation in the England squad.

With Leicester currently unbeaten in the Gallagher Premiership and the Saracens trio responding in kind with a club that has returned from its year in exile in the lower echelons of English rugby by sweeping all before it, Jones has left himself open to criticism. He is totally divorced from outside opinion and will drive on doing things his way, regardless of the numerous accusations levelled at his man management style.

Given that England finished fifth in last season’s Six Nations, Jones is gambling big time here but is prepared to do so in the knowledge that if and when he recalls some of that highly decorated quintet in the new year — George has already been recalled due to injury ruling out fellow Lions hooker Luke Cowan-Dickie — he will have elicited the response he wanted while allowing some less experienced players grow from a leadership and experience perspective.

After a challenging two years in charge of Ireland, with the vast majority of his preparation time compromised by Covid regulations and restrictions, one wonders just how far Farrell is willing to gamble over the next three weeks.

Given that we have never made it to the semi-final stage at a World Cup, something has to change in the build up to France 2023. What, if anything, did we learn about the credentials and capabilities of new caps Gavin Coombes, Robert Baloucoune, James Hume and Tom O’Toole against the USA last July to suggest they are ready to take on the likes of South Africa in a pivotal World Cup pool game?

Coombes was the only new cap to feature against Japan the week before with 10 minutes exposure off the bench. Bear in mind that New Zealand played a mix of their second and third string players against the USA in Washington 10 days ago, winning 104-14, scoring 16 tries in the process.

Farrell will be tempted to field his strongest available team against New Zealand on Saturday week in the most challenging game of the series but, in doing so, shouldn’t be blinded by the potential gains of including Coombes and/or Caelan Doris from the start.

While Farrell rested Sexton, Keith Earls, and Cian Healy for those summer tests and released Peter O’Mahony for the USA game in order to promote the likes of Coombes, Balaucoune, Nick Timony, Paul Boyle, and Harry Byrne, all four are now firmly back in the reckoning to start against New Zealand.

At this stage Farrell knows exactly what someone like O’Mahony brings to the party, having played against New Zealand on many occasions, including a man-of-the-match performance in the epic 2018 win in Dublin.

Coombes and Doris will be key performers by the time the next World Cup starts and, consequently, need to be exposed to the very best in class in order to be properly prepared to take on the Springboks, Wallabies, and All Blacks in France.

New Zealand coach Ian Foster is using this five game autumn schedule as a World Cup dry run, equating the games against USA and Italy to less demanding pool games. The tests against Wales last weekend and Ireland next Saturday represent the more pivotal pool contests, all building up to a tour crescendo against France whom they view as genuine World Cup contenders, especially in their own backyard, in their final outing at the Stade de France, venue for the 2023 final, on November 20.

The biggest selection conundrum for Farrell surrounds the perennial issue of who is best placed to cover Sexton and whether the 36-year-old will survive the physical challenges that come with policing the 10 channel between now and 2023.

Farrell has to plan for the fact that, even if Sexton’s form sustains — he remains by some distance Ireland’s leading No 10 — the then 38-year-old’s body could break down at any stage in the lead in to the World Cup. If that proves to be the case, and Sexton’s back up isn’t primed and ready for action, Farrell will be lacerated.

Throughout last season, Billy Burns and Ross Byrne were lined up as the next cabs on the rank.

With both omitted from this squad in favour of Joey Carbery and Ross’s younger brother Harry, Farrell appears to have drawn a line through their credentials.

Jack Carty remains on the outside looking in, despite a string of quality performances for Connacht, while, if granted enough game time by Munster, Ben Healy and Jack Crowley may well have leapfrogged other contenders to be in the mix by the time the World Cup rolls around.

We’ll get an early indication of Farrell’s thought process when he announces the team to play Japan tomorrow. Having been pushed all the way by the Japanese in that 39-31 win only four months ago, Farrell will be conscious of the need to start this series well.

Bear in mind that Japan pushed Rugby Championship runners up Australia all the way only 10 days ago before losing 23-32 (it was 13-17 at half-time) in a high-tempo contest in Oita, Japan. In terms of preparation, that game will enable Jamie Joseph’s men hit the ground running from the outset on Saturday.

Farrell can’t allow preparations drift forward to the challenge presented by the All Blacks on Saturday week in the knowledge that if his charges are anything less than fully focused on the immediate threat posed by the Brave Blossoms, they will be pushed all the way to avoid a repeat of the chastening World Cup pool defeat in Shizuoka two years ago.